Re: RESULTS?
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The result is that maybe Sklansky was right about you guys. The Villain said nothing about the Villain making big bets whatsoever. Villain also stated that there is a good chance that he thinks hero has AA/KK in this spot so he could talk himself into a call PF.
Obviously none of us were there so we don't have the full extent of a read that we would like, but thinking that this is never KK is very wrong.
Donkeys tend not to make huge semi-bluffs, they overbet their perception of the nuts, and make loose calls. I call here all day but would only assume I win around 50% of the time with his range being KK,22,AA. On OP's bankroll I would fold but I would also not be playing with that much money in play.
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Even if his range is 22, AA, KK:
six combos of AA
three combos of KK
three combos of 22
= hero has 75% equity
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Thanks for the math lesson. My analysis was Bayesian, and I think he plays his KK like this a higher % of the time than his AA or 22.
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If we're going to go all Bayesian I think 22 is by far the most likely of the 3. To put him on KK or AA you have to think that he smooth-calls a reraise preflop, after multiple callers, with one of those hands.
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