[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
If I have to pick one horse I pick Brother Derek. I am not a chalk eater, but I do not think you have to look for value in the derby. The exotic pools are so huge anything pays well. Just look at the payouts when FuPeg and Smarty won the race.

Brother Derek has done everything that has been asked of him. You can't fault him for devouring small fields in California. It is a little concerning that he got sucked into the hot pace in the Juvenile, but holding fourth in that race was an accomplishment.

Sweetnorthernsaint and Point Determined will be the wise guy horses. They deserve to be and both look to be doing very well coming into the race. I do not think SNS is versatile. His wins have come in races where the pace was soft. He sizzled home in the Illinois derby and he will be on my tickets. PD has been fighting the track bias at Santa Anita and should feel more comfortable at CD.

I do not care much for Lawyer Ron or Steppenwolfer. Can't like Bob and John off that race in the Wood. Barbaro won the Florida derby from the 10 post and may be the speed of the speed. I don't like him to win, but he may be the one holding on for third or fourth. AP Warrior will be on my tickets because of his seasoning.

Good luck all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bro Derek can be faulted for his lack of value and the fact his last 3 races he hasn't gone against 19 horses *combined* much less in one race, much less from the 18 pole.

Everyone is jumping on Point D, so I am jumping off. Still hoping SNSaint is 10-1 or better tomorrow, less than 8-1 and I will avoid, not been training well last 3 days either.

Nobody seems to like Barbaro or Lawyer Ron to win, reminds me of how all the 'experts', not one bet on Smarty Jones. Ron is the most seasoned, has come from off the pace [but not far off] and run a Beyer over 105, a requirement for 8 of last 13 Derby winners - only K. Entry, Derek, SNS and SinMinister can say the same, and KEntry and SinMin are likely throwouts.
All Barbaro does is win, ran 103 last time out, and is most rested horse. 4-1 sucks though, you can get 6.5-1 some places online.
I also like AP Warrior at 18-1 or better and Sharp Humor at 50-1 in many places online to hit the board.

I like Jazil and Steppenwolfer if it rains to hit the board also. Smartest thing tomorrow is to NOT bet to win but box 4 horses Exacta and Trifecta. SNS/APWarrior/LRon/Jazil? Barbaro/Ron/Steppen/BobnJohn on a rainy track? Something like that.

Naj