[gumpzilla]

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If you think that there is no such thing as spider sense or that the on the spot intuition you pick up after hundreds of thousands of hands is *always* subservient to math you can quickly do in your head, you are always going to repeat hand #2, over and over and over again.

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We've had this discussion a long time ago, but the math you can do in your head isn't made irrelevant here. It's just that a lot of people need to go the extra step and actually evaluate how often they're going to be beat. The intuition comes in in trying to come up with a reasonable figure regarding how often your hand is good. This doesn't mean that you have to come up with actual numbers, but if you need to be good 20% of the time, you can see if your intuitive sense is that that will be true.

I think the flush hand is an excellent example, because it's both more common and also represents a scenario where there a large class of hands that beat you and not a lot of other hands that are going to play the same way. And while I think you're right that a lot of us probably make the mistake of calling too much on the river rather than folding too much, it's worth remembering (I'm not saying you don't) that folding too much is a mistake too.