[sunrise]

blackaces...now you're just being silly.

NHFunkii, you are right, so that makes it 1/43 or 1/21.5, which is less than 5%, objectively speaking.
So you are saying the information given..

1) flat calling the raise PF
2) villain had D on his forehead, for Donk I assume.
3) villain checks flop
4) villain smooth calls tiny bet on turn
5) villain bets a random unknown amount of chips on the river

Is there something I am missing? Please clue me in as to how this subjective information allows you to skew the less than 5% chance villain has a J to a great enough probability that he does have a J which makes folding the correct option, not just for this hand but in the long run as well.

To a beginner there is a lot of inference going on in this post without a whole lot of real critical analysis. Perhaps some of you more enlightened players, namely adanthar, can explain further as to why you are sure AA is beat here.

From a gut feeling, I could concur if I was in the hand as I have had that "feeling" that someone has that 4th 8, or K or what have you, and was correct. However I can't convey what exactly led me to this assumption and put it into words which would lead someone else to the same conclusion.
However I know that my calls with the 2nd or 3rd nuts with boards that had 3 of one card on them have been correct enough to profit vs the incorrect calls when someone had the quads.