[vypremik]

I think there are more things going on here than most people are considering. The knowledge of another player’s card can be an advantage in several ways. The fact that this player is one your right is optimal, as you get to play after him 89% of the time.

First, there are some advantages to knowing the card even when Mr. Right folds.

1) As someone pointed out, the deck is one card smaller, which gives you a small statistical advantage. That by itself is small, probably less than 0.1BB/hr

2) But remember that is not just removing a random card – it is a specific card. Lets say Mr. Right folds a 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. If the flop then comes with two 7’s, or 5-6-8 rainbow, or 3 hearts, your have a huge advantage on the table because you know that the 7H is out of play. I expect the known folded card would affect the flop about 30% of the time.

3) If you hold the same number Mr. Right folds, it helps you to know that your hand is weaker against your remaining opponents. How strong does your KQ-offsuit look against 2 limpers when Mr. Right folds a King? You can expect his card to match one or both of yours (and therefore weaken your hand) about 6% of the time. We need to remember that money NOT lost is the same thing as money gained.

4) A final effect on the other players would be a change in your image. Since you are playing your optimal game, you will start winning more/losing less. This may affect your table image and result in a change in the way that they play you. This by itself may cause another player to be hesitant to face you and may result in more lay downs against you. It is hard to put a value on this, but if it happens only once every other hour, you can see a gain from it.


Of course, when Mr. Right is in the pot, you have a huge advantage and can greatly increase your odds of winning more or losing less money.

5) First, and most obvious, you know one of the cards he is playing. Many people have discussed this already. You can get a pretty good idea of how his cards stack up to yours through the whole hand. This is the biggest advantage and will probably affect about 25% of the hands. Sometimes it will make you more likely to enter and hope to win more, sometimes it will keep you from entering and, therefore, lose less. Again, not losing money counts as a positive gain for you.

6) Your domination of Mr. Right will continue, even when you are not in the hand. You will learn his playing style and be privy to his betting styles, slow-plays, and bluffs. Within a few hours, you will likely have a good idea of what his second card is simply by the way he plays the hands. In other words, you could make the correct move on Mr. Right over 80% of the time. You may as well be playing with his chips.

7) Unfortunately, there can be a small, long-term disadvantage. Your complete domination of Mr. Right may cause him to nearly cease playing with you. While this has an advantage by itself, it will not be as valuable to have Mr. Right folding almost every time you enter a pot. He will probably not stick around for long, but you never know. If he figures it is short-term bad luck, he may lose his mortgage to you.

The effect of all of this is kind of hard to put a precise number on. You will almost certainly play more hands with your added advantage. Lets say you increase from playing 10 hands/hr up to 12. I would put the advantages as follows:

1) 0.1BB
2) 0.5BB
3) 0.2BB
4) 0.1BB
5) and 6) 4.0BB
7) –0.5BB (negative)

For a total estimated effect of about 4.4 BB per hour.

This may even be a low estimate, but it is hard to put an exact number on hypothetical situations.