Re: Uhhh, what just happend here? $100 NL 6M
Xwill,
I kinda understand what your saying but I dont know if I agree. Even a slight read would sway things alot.
The problem I have with villian having AA or KK is I still fail to understand what people could be thinking limp/calling in a unknown game with AA or KK. It happens but Im going to pay it off alot the first time they catch me when they do it because it is fairly uncommon.
AK is more understandable, and probably more likely than I first gave it credit for. From villains perspective Hero's hand should look like a big ace on the turn, and Im going to expect a raise to get value more often. But if he's limping AK then I can see a passive player calling the turn. So I'll agree AK can be in his range but I still question how likely it is.
As for why villian calls the turn, I agree with what you have said for the most part. I think a flush draw is very possible holding with the turn call, given that I think the implied odds are definately there given the board. So if villian puts hero on an ace the call isn't that bad.
The other issue is what the villian thinks is a made hand here. Because a made hand worth the call to alot of people is going to be an ace (any ace). When the river comes I still think the villian can have a naked ace (AJ, AT, A9) a fair amount of the time with the min raise. The problem for the hero is the odds he's getting, while the pot odds are 4.25-1, he's really only getting 1.5-1 if he thinks the worst hand the villian is likely to have is a chopping Ace.
If the flush draw doesn't complete I think a call is alot closer but the added possibility of the flush I don't think a call is right.
Dopey [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]
** As per my location, Im a NL newbie so it is possible Im way off base here. **
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