[samoleus]

OK, Strassa summed up the most important point in this hand. Unlike Bld, Strassa himself and some others, Jackal will not make very thin value bets. This is especially true in this case where we both have large stacks. In this situation, there is almost no way that he is value betting a hand that I can beat. When he makes that river bet, he is either on a bluff or has me beat. He is NOT betting AA-JJ this way.

Because Jackal is a tricky player and because he knows my opening standards are pretty loose (that is an understatement), his reraise of my opening raise doesn't have to be a premium hand by any means.

Now when he bets the flop, he could have a variety of hands just continuing. But when I cold call that flop, the turn looks like a disaster for him if he was just screwing around with big cards. The top card has paired AND the flush got there. I would expect him to switch into check calling (or maybe check folding) mode now with a big pair that does not contain a spade. Therefore, after his turn bet, I put him on a big pair WITH a spade, AK/AQ including the ace of spades, an underfull house, A-10, K-10, Q-10, or J-10, or a flush.

Now Jackal knows that with the strength that he has shown (including preflop reraise), I am not likely to have called flop AND turn bets with just some random pocket pair. He has to put me on a big hand at this point. Yet he still fires big on the river. ... Even if he had an AA type hand that he was not willing to give up on, he would almost certainly check and call rather than bet here. So I had to put him on a range of hands here.

After his river bet, the only hands that I can see myself beating are A-K/A-Q with the ace of spades (and I question whether or not he would fire a third bullet there - though it is certainly possible) and J-10. On the other hand, I think A-10, K-10, 88, 33, and possibly 44 are in his hand range, as well as any flush. As I explained, I do NOT think AA or similar hand is in his range any more for the reasons that Strassa and now I have elucidated.

Therefore, putting it all together, I think there is a much higher likelihood of me being behind than ahead here. Of course, the pot is laying me better than 2-1 on my money for the river call. However, I think Jackal is ahead much more often than that: I'd say 3 or 4 to 1. I folded.

Thoughts?