Re: ($55) EP -- Are large bets a sign of weakness or strength?
I think this is something straight out of Tournament Poker for Advanced Players. Essentially, it's such a close gamble so early in the SNG, I fold so that I open myself up to more profitable situations later in the game. The problem with pushing the flop is that you don't fold any hands you want to, and if you call you're committing over 25% of your stack to this play. And depending on what the turn may bring, you are going to be hard pressed. Most of your equity comes from seeing both the turn and the river, and I don't think you'll get a cheap free card here. Fold.
Board: 2d 4c 5c
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.1816 % 37.27% 08.91% { AsKs }
Hand 2: 53.8184 % 44.91% 08.91% { 66+, AJs+, AJo+ }
EDIT: As always, if there's a flaw with my thinking, please let me know.
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