Re: Analysis of a downswing
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nh Baluga - good stuff. Hopefully you don't go busto again...
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Be Careful moving up limits!!
I followed Fimbulwinter's guidelines for moving up, and tried 50NL both times I reached 500 dollars. Both times it was a mistake. I moved up, lost my stack with undersets twice and got outflushed once. This decimated both my roll and my confidence. Simply put, if your bankroll can't stand getting unlucky for as many as four buyins, you shouldn't play at that limit. Maybe its just my style, but I think moving up to 50NL shouldn't really take place until you have between 750 and 1000 in your roll.
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BR requirements are different for everyone and are rally about how comfortable you are - and how good a player you are. Most people (me included) overrate their playing skills especially if they are running hot. You are not as good as you think you are.
I play $50NL and my roll is hovering around $500 - some days it dips to $300 - some days it zooms to $600. I am getting frustrated a lot of the time because I can't seem to make headway - instead of grinding out a slow steady br increase I am instead going up and down - up and down - it's infuriating that I am basically playing break even poker right now, but after every losing session I look over my plays in PT and if I made a good decision I am happy. If I made a bad one (just yesterday I stacked myself with TPTK and I know very well that I shoudn't be going to the felt for a whole stack wth TPTK EVER - barring a great read) I can at least recognise what I've done and try not to repeat these mistakes in the future.
In short yes I agree completely be careful about moving up in limits. Hopefully soon I will have a large enough roll for me ($700) to take a 2-buyin shot at $100NL - I fully accept that I might well run bad - get outluckboxed and lose my $200 in short order if this happens I move straight back down to $50NL and rebuild again - rinse and repeat. If after failing at this a couple of times then I will regroup build myself a $1k roll and move up for a little longer, more news as it happens.
I don't recommend anyone else tries this unless you aren't going to be playing scared at the higher limit and you also have the discipline to move down if it all goes horribly wrong. I'd also point out that I am very calm and collected most of the time and I don't tilt very easily, I know from experience that I can get all of my money in the middle with a 99% chance of winning and sometimes that 1 outter will hit - if it does there's little I can do - but I will try to keep getting my money in the middle whenever I think I have a big enough edge, let the cards fall as they choose - and in the long run I will win.
the oft quoted 20-buyins br rule is a good starting point. Depending on your style of play - where you play - how well you are running - and whether you can afford to go BUSTO or not will affect this.
The biggest overriding law of gambling I think is this.
DO NOT GAMBLE MONEY THAT YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE
For bankrolls more is always better - but I don't think you HAVE to have 20buyins or more necessarily to move up.
BR requirements are mostly about personal comfort - if you can handle the consequences of losing a hefty chunk of your roll in one hand then by all means go for it - but unless you are comfortable playing at a higher level (scared money is already dead) then don't move up until you are comfortable, and if that means you need 100buyins in your roll then wait till you get that far before you take the step up.
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All good points.
One thing I'd like to point out is that the 20 buy-in roll becomes alot more important the further you get from say $100nl. If you're a $10nl player, losing your roll is not that big of a deal because you just work a few hours at your normal job and reload. Not so, if you're playing say $1000nl.
Also, as you move up the games become tougher and more aggressive and thus swings become bigger (magnify this by 2-3x if you're playing a lot of shorthanded) and 10xbuy-in swings become FAIRLY COMMON.
When I first started out I didn't pratice any form of bankroll management and I went BUSTO. No big deal, I realoaded some more and got back into my $10NL game. Eventually I ran well and moved up, only after going nearly BUSTO a few times (and moving down several stakes) did I realize the importance of having enough buy-ins for a certain level. It sucks to have to move down from a limit where you know you're a winner just because of a few beats. Rather grind out a little more at a lower level and catch on at the new level.
But, all-in-all. The easiest way to move up quickly is to take some gambling shots at a higher level, run well, and stay there until you get comfortable and properly rolled. Rinse and repeat.
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