[jskinn04]

With your opponent being mega super tight, I'm thinking that his preflop requirements are (1)pairs, (2)big aces, (3) suited connectors, and (4) KQs and KJs.

In this hand, he's the third limper, which suggest to me that he doesn't have AA, KK, or QQ. Maybe he could have JJ or TT but I would expect him to raise with those hands. Maybe he raises half the time with them. After two other limpers I think it's reasonable to believe that he's limping with any pair, any suited connector down to 87s, KQs, KJs, AJs, AJo, and maybe AQo.

After he bets 1/2 pot on the flop, he could have AJs, AJo, KJs, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 22, JTs, and T9s. There are 12 ways to deal AJ with a J on the board, 2 ways to deal KJs, 3 ways to deal JJ (but I'd downgrade that to 1 b/c I think he raises JJ preflop most of the time), 6 ways for TT (downgrade to about 4 because he raises this preflop many times), 6 ways for 99, 3 ways for 88, 3 ways for 22 (downgrade to 2 because he folds this preflop sometimes), 3 ways for JTs, and 4 ways for T9s. Total is 37 hands. JJ, 88 and 22 appear 6 times. That means ~16% of the time you've got two outs and 8% chance to win (1.2% equity). 15 hands paired the jack and have five outs so .40*.80 = 32% equity. KJs, TT, and 99 (12 hands) are all drawing to two outs so .92*.32 = 29% equity. Finally, T9s gives you .68*.11 = 7.5%. Adding up the total equities... your equity is roughly 1.2% + 32% + 29% + %7.5 = 70%.

Given that you're a pretty strong favorite in this situation I definitely want to raise this bet. If you just call and he makes a large bet when a blank hits the turn are you really going to fold, thinking that he's holding a set? I think the best bet is to raise him such that he's getting the wrong price to call with a five out hand such as AJ. I don't think he's going to put any more money in with any hand that has only two outs against you (including KJs). The odds against five outs hitting on the turn is (40:5 == 8:1). 40 instead of 42 b/c I don't think he's coming along with any hand that includes a king so you can count out those two other kings in the calculation. Once you call his bet, the pot is 2500. A min raise would put the pot at about 3150 for 3150:650 == 4.8:1 odds. Those are a little too good if he has the straight draw, so I'd say go ahead and put in 1650, raising him 1000 and giving him 3.5:1 odds, which should make him fold the SD. You still have enough stack left (~2500) that you can push the turn (pot will have ~4500) and deny him the right odds for any hand that is still behind.

In sum, I vote for raising him to 1650 in an effort to cause him to err by calling.

-jskinn