[betgo]

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Noah said it best. We have a speculative hand. Why would we want to raise here? Villain is giving us a chance to get to a showdown fairly cheaply, so that is precicely what we should be doing.

I fold the flop here more often than not. I'm not sure overcalling has much value here. A play like this is much more +EV when HU. The caller in between changes everything and severely kills your equity (i.e., more of a chance you're already beat and more of a chance you GET beat on the turn).

Given your flop call, I agree that calling down is the best way to go.

Betgo - I also found your reasoning to be somewhat... I don't know... illogical. First off, how did you get such a strong read that Villain was on an overpair as opposed to overcards (I would never have thought this guy had QQ after his turn bet, by the way). Seems too much like a results-oriented pat on the back. Something's awry.

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I don't know if the overcall of the flop bet was good. I was getting 4.5-1 pot odds to call the small bet. I figured I was ahead or had 5 outs.

I don't like raising the turn at all. It is generall not good to raise with medium strength hands like this. If I had top pair plus an open ended, it might be right to play it very strongly. If I had nothing, it might be reasonable to try to bluff following the weak bet.

With second pair plus a gutshot, I am better hoping to hit one of nine outs or win a showdown. If I raise, hands that are ahead are likely to call or reraise and hands that are behind are likely to fold.

Raising the river is a reasonable play, since I could easily get top pair or an overpair to fold on the dangerous board. I think the only reasonable plays on the river are calling and making a substantial raise. Folding or making a small raise are bad.