Results
I thought for a long time. I wasn't really worried about AA/KK, obviously he could have them, but I knew he could just as easily have JJ/TT or other lower pairs. There are a few more hands I dominate in this range than that dominate me. I was mainly thinking about the middle of his range - the overcard hands. AK is obviously bad, but it's only one hand. What I tried to figure out was whether I wanted to call vs one-overcard hands. I decided that a 70/30 was definitely a good situation, because there was likely a less than 70% chance I would get the seat if I folded. Add in the pairs and AK to the range (where I come out somewhere near 50/50 overall) and it comes down to a 65/35 or so, but still I thought that edge was larger than my chance of getting the seat if I folded. I am still not sure; I don't have enough sat experience to estimate something like that very accurately.
So I thought it was very close and I pushed.
He had KK. It held and I ended up bubbling and winning an assload of FPP's.
Thanks all for the analysis.
|