Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
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Thats great 11 people left i'm 2nd in chips. Chip leader is at my table i have QQ he has AKs. I can see his cards i'll OF all day knowing he will call my all in. I may be wrong thinking like this, but its a -$EV play and i know i will be able to find better spots. If i'm clearly outmatched by everyone left in the tourney then i might take the flip.
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passing up cEV is routine
passing up $EV is almost never correct*
i don't see what your point is.
*the one spot where i will knowingly pass up +$EV is in a freezeout situation where i feel that the other player(s) is/are very exploitable and stacks are relatively deep so that i will be able to capitalize on this. an extreme example would be a heads up freezeout on pokerstars where the other player is open pushing any 2 on the first level, and i do NOT have the opportunity to play this player again when the match is over. i would fold something like QTo here, even though it is +$ev, because calling here would prevent me from taking a much larger +$ev edge later on. however stacks are generally not deep enough late in a MTT or SNG that passing up ANY edge is correct.
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