[Sporky]

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I thought of that, but it kind of looks like trips, doesn't it? Why does this guy have to have a gutshot to go with that? (I suppose it could be an strangely flop-checked ace or a slowplay instead.)

That said, I don't mind a turn fold. You have implied odds and RIO working against each other (in what proportions, I don't know), and the decision seems close to me.

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he doesn't have to have a gutshot, but the fact is that these are very possible holdings. the fold doesn't seem close at all to me, you're getting less than stellar odds even if all your outs were clean.