Re: JTs settle a disagreement with DeathDonkey
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1) As pots become larger it becomes more and more valuable to take "free" (why don't we call them cheap?) cards. This pot is already a pretty fair size.[ QUOTE ]
This doesn't make sense. The value of a free card decreases with every person in the pot and with the number of outs you have. With many people in the pot and lots of outs, the value of a free card is pretty low.
Raise now or call.. doesn't matter much. There are 13 sb in the pot. Something like 5-6 of those are "yours". A raise now makes you something like 1.5sb. Waiting to raise, not sure, but it's not much more or less than this. Most of the money you'll make this hand is already in the pot.
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This makes absolutely no sense. As the pot gets larger draws become "cheaper" because the total expectation is higher.
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Grah, stuff like this makes me so angry when I'm posting record slides. I want to yell at you guys, but it's probably a reasonably complex point. Think! If calling increases in value as you add bets to the pot then the value of seeing the same amount of cards for cheap also increases as you add bets. If you raise for a free card when you're getting exactly the odds to peel the flop you've basically gained nothing. Getting cheap cards in large pots basically equates to the EV happy dance. Peeling does get cheaper in big pots, but free cards get way better than peeling. What's better, 10:2 or 10:3? Can we also see how the bet saved in a 20:2 vs 20:3 example is more valuable than the previous one? Yes we can.
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You are way off here. the argument isn't weather or not getting higher pot odds is better, its weather getting a free card is better.
Two heads up matches, both of which you have a flush draw which has 17% equity on the turn. The cost of calling each bet is .34 (you expectation from both bets)- 1 = -.66. So you fold if 0.17 times the pot < .66.
Now heads up in a 5BB pot your EV is = (.17)(5) = .85 bets. If you are forced to call 1 bet then your EV is now equal to .85 + (-.66) = .19BB - your EV has droppend by .66 bets.
Now the same situation in a 10 bb pot EV = (.17)(10) = 1.7 bets. If you are forced to call 1 bet then your EV = 1.7 + (-.66) = 1.04 BBs. and your EV had sropped again by exactly .66 BBs.
The only thing that effects the EV change of your call in this situation is the number of other players in the hand. And in that instance the more players who call the bet the LESS your free card is worth- and since more players is more likely to correlate to a larger pot, on average, the bigger the pot the Less the free card is worth.
Simply put if you were playing at two tables one with a 5 bb pot and the other with a 10bb pot at the same stakes. You have the option of taking a free card on either table- your choice. How can picking one or the other increase your EV?
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