[Westley878]

[ QUOTE ]
i was suprised everyone said call..
I was thinking raise, for one you can hit you are raising for value...
for 2 if u dont hit on the turn u can take a free card if u so chose...

but i run good, and play bad

[/ QUOTE ]

I am also surprised some people on here suggested call. To be honest, not only have I never called in this situation on the flop, Ive never even considered the idea of calling in this spot. Raising seems so much like the obvious right play that I almost feel like I'm missing something here.

With 3 people committed on the flop, and the reality that the hero is either a 2-1 underdog to make the best hand on the river(assuming the raiser has JJ and above) or the hero may have 15 live outs and be a slight favorite if the raiser has AK,AQ,KQ,99, and the hero may also have 12 outs if the raiser has TT. In all 3 scenarios, the hero is getting 3-1 odds on his raise and he is much less than a 3-1 underdog here, meaning the hero makes a lot of money off this raise in the long run. Yes I know the PFR may reraise here, but even this is not necessarily a bad event. Sometimes both people in the middle or even one person in the middle will call, and we can still cap for value. Also If we knew the PFR had 99 or TT and we also knew that he would 3 bet our raise every time in this spot, raising the flop would still be the best play since this line would increase the hero's probability of winning this already large pot by a small yet very significant percentage.

There are so many strategic advantages to raising here, that I honestly think calling here is a bad play. Another thing, If I did raise the flop and everyone just called, I would bet the turn again even if I knew I couldnt win the pot with this bet just in case the raiser has a hand like ATs,KJs,KTs,AJ and will fold to a turn bet.

Also, If my flop raise is reraised by the raiser, I am capping always if I believe I can get a free card or when im getting 2-1 or more odds on my cap.

I also dont buy the argument of just calling the flop to not kill our implied odds should we hit the turn.....Like Ive already mentioned, this pot has already reached a big size once the action is on the hero(approx 13 small bets) If raising the flop will increase the hero's chance of winning this nice pot by even a small percertage, this factor alone trumps any strategy that may win the hero a large pot if he hits. I am convinced that a flop raise will indeed increase the hero's probability of winning this pot.

Also, the hero may still make more money by raising the flop, since there is no guarantee that the flop bettor or two callers will call the turn if a spade hits, but they do have their money in right now on the flop, so take their money while you still have a chance, and if you hit your flush, you may induce one or more of them to call you down drawing dead becuz you made the pot even bigger by raising the flop.