Late in tourney, AQ in SB facing a Button push
 

Party Super Tuesday.

About 25 people remaining. I'm top 6 in chips.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t6000/t12000
(Ante: t200)
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t372852
UTG+1: t120265
MP1: t190464
MP2: t72028
LP: t112331
BUTTON: t129643
Hero (SB): t258146
BB: t184195

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
5 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises all-in t129443</font>

Whats the right play?

I will say that villian has not been very active in the time I've been at this table.

If I call and win, I'm chip leader. If I call and lose, I'm in the middle of the pack and a little below average.

My thoughts: Why is he pushing here instead of making a standard raise? He clearly doesn't want to see a flop or he's representing a steal with crap.

Now Button shouldn't be desperate IMO (m=7.2). He's not in horrible shape given the blinds and not in need of pushing weak out of desperation. but surely he wants to accumulate some more chips.

So which is right? folding and not risking 1/2 my stack? OR calling and trying to move into 1st when chip stacks matter most?

Please give detailed thoughts on your action. Enough of these "call" or "fold" posts with no explanation please.

I have a very strong opinion on this which I will keep to myself for now.

-Scott

Re: Late in tourney, AQ in SB facing a Button push
 

The reality is this is a very clear +cEV spot, but there are obviously other implications at hand here. There are some that would prefer not to gamble here, but there are others (like myself) who really want to gamble in a spot like this.

You are more than a little ahead of his range IMO. However, if the table was REALLY weak, and you were stealing very easily, I MIGHT consider possibly folding. However, the situation would really have to be extreme.

Re: Late in tourney, AQ in SB facing a Button push
 

You're definitely well ahead of his range, even tight players push almost any ace, as well as pairs and some big broadway cards. I think you're reading too much into the push, he only has 10bb, a lot of people (most 2+2ers included) just push or fold at that point. I can't see passing up this big of an edge at this point, especially since you have plenty of chips left. Even in Ansky's example with a super weak table, there's nothing to stop you from continuing to steal even if you lose this pot.

Short version: Easy push.

Steve

Re: Late in tourney, AQ in SB facing a Button push
 

seems like a trivially easy call.

Re: Late in tourney, AQ in SB facing a Button push
 

I'm not sure why you are looking so much at his all-in move as opposed to a standard raise. With only 10x BB left on the button, I'm moving in with pretty much every hand I'm raising with.

Easy push in your spot with AQ. You're a pretty substantial favorite over his range in this spot assuming he's any kind of "player" and not some weak-tightie just lookin to move up.

-ActionBob

Re: Late in tourney, AQ in SB facing a Button push
 

[ QUOTE ]
seems like a trivially easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, what am I missing here?

Edit: I guess sometimes people wake up with hands at the tops of their ranges. Even total nits will have a range against which AQ is an great shape when they have 10 BBs and the button.

Re: Late in tourney, AQ in SB facing a Button push
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're definitely well ahead of his range, even tight players push almost any ace, as well as pairs and some big broadway cards. I think you're reading too much into the push, he only has 10bb, a lot of people (most 2+2ers included) just push or fold at that point. I can't see passing up this big of an edge at this point, especially since you have plenty of chips left. Even in Ansky's example with a super weak table, there's nothing to stop you from continuing to steal even if you lose this pot.

Short version: Easy push.

Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

This pretty much sums up what I was going to say, it sucks posts fill up so quick I have nothing pertinent to say. :/

Re: Late in tourney, AQ in SB facing a Button push
 

A realistic range could be A7+, 55+, KQ-KTs. I definitely call.

What should hero do if he also has only about 10BB left? Still call, right?

Re: Late in tourney, AQ in SB facing a Button push
 

[ QUOTE ]
What should hero do if he also has only about 10BB left? Still call, right?

[/ QUOTE ]
That would make me want to call even more (if that's possible).

Re: Late in tourney, AQ in SB facing a Button push
 

I call, but I'm not thrilled....
calling a medium stack push here from a strategic staindpoint gives you two shots to win the tourney...

you can win at showdown, locking yourself into the FT and probably assuring yourself no worse than a 4th or 5th finish, esp if you abuse the FT minibubble...

even if you lose, you retain enough chips to be competitive...

that said, normally when a quiet player pushes against a big stack there is a reason why.. and it isn't because you're flipping for 250K...

did he flip over AK?