Is This an Overbet or Bluff? What would you do?
 

Now I know I probably made a mistake in this hand on the flop, but I just want to know what you would do on the river to the villains push. The villain hadn't shown any crazy hands and hasn't made a bet this big since I had sat down. What would you put the villain on and what would you do?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com

BB ($104.60)
UTG ($204.05)
MP1 ($227.90)
MP2 ($157.20)
CO ($197)
Hero ($209.75)
SB ($239.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $8, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $6, UTG calls $6.

Flop: ($33) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $18</font>, Hero calls $18, BB calls $18, UTG folds.

Turn: ($87) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks.

River: ($87) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $78.6 (All-In)</font>, MP2 folds, Hero??

Re: Is This an Overbet or Bluff? What would you do?
 

This is just about the easiest fold ever. He can have the straight, a boat, or even a bare king. Hes pushing into two people on the river, making a bluff pretty unlikely. Calling here would be really bad.

Re: Is This an Overbet or Bluff? What would you do?
 

I would call this fairly often. I read him for a draw, but a read would really help here.

Re: Is This an Overbet or Bluff? What would you do?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would call this fairly often. I read him for a draw, but a read would really help here.

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We have no read on the guy except he hasn't shown any crazy hands, but the key thing is that hes pushing into two people. If it were checked to him you would have a much stronger arguement. As it is, I think calling here is terrible.

Re: Is This an Overbet or Bluff? What would you do?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is just about the easiest fold ever. He can have the straight, a boat, or even a bare king. Hes pushing into two people on the river, making a bluff pretty unlikely. Calling here would be really bad.

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I see your point about what he could have, but the better question is what hand pushes here? Would he really push a boat straight or trips or would he want to get paid with a monster like that? Also, the preflop raiser made his standard C bet on the flop and then checked the turn after 2 people called him on the flop. To me, the preflop raiser showed a ton of weakness as did I by not raising on the flop and not even betting small on the turn. I think you're putting too much on the fact that he's pushed into 2 people without looking into what kind of strength the 2 people he pushed into have or haven't shown. My biggest question is again....Why would he push a monster and not value bet here?

Re: Is This an Overbet or Bluff? What would you do?
 

Because pushing looks weaker than betting half the pot, and he doesn't even have a PSB in his stack? 78 into 87 pot isn't exactly an overbet. Betting 30 or 45 into an 87 pot looks MUCH stronger than pushing and having you ask yourself "why would he push with those hands?", and perhaps get a call from something as bad as QJ here. NOT pushing here with those hands would be counterintuitive.

I understand you will see a bluff here from time to time, and that you and the other guy have shown weakness, but with the read you have (or essentially no read), I have a pretty hard time believing he is going to be bluffing here 30% of the time to make calling profitable. He will be bluffing here some of the time, but far less than 30% IMO. If you called and he showed miss draw this time, good for you. I still think its a pretty bad call.

Re: Is This an Overbet or Bluff? What would you do?
 

My reasoning for calling is what hand could he have except possibly KQ that would just call on the flop. He must have a draw. This is a very draw heavy board and if he has a set or JT then he should protect his hand. This assumes he is a good logical opponent and often peoples plays make no sense. Also there was alot of weakness shown in the pot when it went check check check on the turn. Why shouldn't he push the river with a missed draw by using the same logic as above. If his opponents had strong hands they would have to bet to protect there hands on this draw heavy board on the turn.

Re: Is This an Overbet or Bluff? What would you do?
 

[ QUOTE ]
My reasoning for calling is what hand could he have except possibly KQ that would just call on the flop. He must have a draw. This is a very draw heavy board and if he has a set or JT then he should protect his hand. This assumes he is a good logical opponent and often peoples plays make no sense. Also there was alot of weakness shown in the pot when it went check check check on the turn. Why shouldn't he push the river with a missed draw by using the same logic as above. If his opponents had strong hands they would have to bet to protect there hands on this draw heavy board on the turn.

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K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], player may even call with KJ or KT on the flop, with or even without the K of clubs, closing the action getting a "cheap" price. He may also slowplay his straight or set for whatever retarded reason. I don't disagree with most of what you said, I just do not believe that this player is going to be bluffing here 30% of the time. A different read can certainly change things.

Re: Is This an Overbet or Bluff? What would you do?
 

this would be a silly situation to bluff in, assuming BB is not brain dead, he knows the first king was a scare card and the second king makes the first one look a lot less scary. Sure his line seems like a bluff from a missed draw, but I think he knows this, which is why he pushed. Hoping someone would make a ballsy call. IMO it is more likely he missed a turn check/raise than a draw

Re: Is This an Overbet or Bluff? What would you do?
 

Thanks for all the responses guys. I love to see what others think and you all have bery valid points. Anyone else have an opinion?