Turned set gets blocked/donked on river
 

Villain is around 55/15/1.5 after just a few orbits, and he seems pretty station-ish thus far. I realize this is pretty read-dependent, but does this seem like he's blocking, or is he trying to induce a raise?

Absolute Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Absolute Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($49.75)
UTG ($9.85)
MP ($22.35)
Hero ($57.79)
Button ($19)
SB ($12.48)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2.10) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.5</font>, BB calls $1.50.

Turn: ($5.10) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.5</font>, BB calls $3.50.

River: ($12.10) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero??

Re: Turned set gets blocked/donked on river
 

I'd bet a little more on the turn, around $4ish. At first I was thinking raise and fold to a re-raise/push since he could definitely have a 3 but I think he could 3bet with a lower set himself... ugh. Plus, calling feels so weak here...

Re: Turned set gets blocked/donked on river
 

The only hands that beat you are QQ and a donkey straight. I would just put my money in and hope they didn't catch lightning in a bottle, as Mr. Sexton would say.

EDIT:

If you are unwilling to part with chips, maybe pop him for another $10 and fold if he shoves.

Re: Turned set gets blocked/donked on river
 

Raise to $12 or $14. This looks like a Q that is trying to set it's own price on the river to me.

Re: Turned set gets blocked/donked on river
 

would a call here be really THAT weak? What does he call with on the turn? OESD, maybe a pair 66+, Ad3d

Re: Turned set gets blocked/donked on river
 

[ QUOTE ]
would a call here be really THAT weak? What does he call with on the turn? OESD, maybe a pair 66+, Ad3d

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. This guy plays 55% of hands, and on a low board any two pair is basically the nuts for him because he puts you on top pair. Raise for value and if you want to play weak then fold to a shove - but I'm calling a shove.

Re: Turned set gets blocked/donked on river
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
would a call here be really THAT weak? What does he call with on the turn? OESD, maybe a pair 66+, Ad3d

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. This guy plays 55% of hands, and on a low board any two pair is basically the nuts for him because he puts you on top pair. Raise for value and if you want to play weak then fold to a shove - but I'm calling a shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree with re raising, i go $12 but theres no way im calling a 200bb shove

Re: Turned set gets blocked/donked on river
 

I raised to $14 and he snap called with his 3c2c.

Guess that's what you'd call a rather unfortunate turn card for me. Oh well, made a note and moved on...