20NL TPGK turn c/r Baluga??
 

Villain is about 37/2/1 over 400ish hands, the minraise on the turn looks like he is trying to get value, are the only hands he can have here 44, 55, 66, I don't think with his AF he does this without a made hand, and apart from the unlikely 23/78 for the strait, I don't think there is anything I beat apart from KJ/KT - is this a clear fold to such a small c/r - or do you call and re-evaluate river - if you call - what is the river plan?

Thanks


Carlos Poker 0.10/0.20, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

saw flop | saw showdown

Button Button ($25.92)
SB SB ($33.47)
BB ($20.00)
UTG ($22.23)
UTG+1 Hero ($20.00)
CO ($19.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
1 fold, Hero raises to 0.80, 1 fold, Button calls 0.80, SB calls 0.70, 1 fold.

Flop (2.60) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB checks, Hero bets 1.85, 1 fold, SB calls 1.85.

Turn (6.30) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB checks, Hero bets 4.00, SB raises to 8.00, Hero ???

Re: 20NL TPGK turn c/r Baluga??
 

With a higher af I would definitely call and see a river, but given your read I feel like you're toast here. Note that a fold here is not standard for me. Given that you have position I like to call and see a river, just because a standard player will have some kind of draw here a decent amount of the time.

I'd make a reads-based fold.

Re: 20NL TPGK turn c/r Baluga??
 

Looking at his af it seems we are beat. Folding the turn is the best option.Alot of hand have you beat here.Even if you call the turn its very hard to call a pot sized bet on the river.

Re: 20NL TPGK turn c/r Baluga??
 

Considering your read it's an easy fold

Re: 20NL TPGK turn c/r Baluga??
 

OK - thanks - as you say - his line is very strong and I can't see anything we beat here. I ended up calling the turn bet and folded to his shove on the blank river, though in retrospect, I don't really know what I was hoping for on the river... I think I am drawing dead here, even to trips.

Re: 20NL TPGK turn c/r Baluga??
 

[ QUOTE ]
OK - thanks - as you say - his line is very strong and I can't see anything we beat here. I ended up calling the turn bet and folded to his shove on the blank river, though in retrospect, I don't really know what I was hoping for on the river... I think I am drawing dead here, even to trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think your line is okay against a more aggressive opponent (tho i would be tempted to call the river)

Re: 20NL TPGK turn c/r Baluga??
 

Turn (6.30) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB checks, Hero bets 4.00, SB raises to 8.00, Hero calls 4.00.

River (22.30) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB bets 11.80 (AI), 1 fold


I really don't think I can call here AMA - with an AF of 1 over a large sample (albeit datamined) - would you ever call here getting 3-1?

Re: 20NL TPGK turn c/r Baluga??
 

I'm never sure how much to rely on PT stats. If he had a VPIP of 15% then he's clearly passive. But does that change as VPIP goes up. In other words can a post flop AF of 1 be considered in isolation or do you need to look at it in conjunction with VPIP?

Re: 20NL TPGK turn c/r Baluga??
 

You need to look at it in conjunction with VPIP, and as far as I know (please correct if wrong), in general the higher the VPIP/PFR, the higher the AF for the same amount of aggression, so for a villain with such a high VPIP, this is an especially low AF. (Correct?)

Re: 20NL TPGK turn c/r Baluga??
 

[ QUOTE ]
are the only hands he can have here 44, 55, 66,

[/ QUOTE ]
On a general note, paired cards is a vv small part of villains pf range so I generally discount sets from villains with these stats. If you are beat here I think it is much more likely he has 2pair or a straight. I would call turn and river.