NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

Villain is 29/11/1.57 over 120 hands.
A couple of hands before this, I had KK and he called my pf raise oop. Flop came 299, he check-called my cbet and then turn was another 9. I decided to try zeebo him and just pushed when he checked to me(is that good?). He tanked, wrote in the chat "very tempting" but decided to fold. I am not completely sure what to make of this. Anyway does the Baluga theorem apply here? I mean it would probably be a fold if he check-raised me, but I don't know what to do here.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($54.85)
Hero ($56.45)
UTG ($32.85)
Button ($23.70)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $0.50, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, Button folds, SB calls $2.50.

Flop: ($6.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, SB calls $5.

Turn: ($16.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $18</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $46.85</font>, Hero ???

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

villain does seems to have quasi-donkish stats but not retarded

c/c a very dry flop then bet/3 bets the turn - this line is very very strong from a player who hasnt revealed himself to be particularly aggro.

do you think he is doing this with 1 pair? because i do not.

gotta be a fold.

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

i don't think i could fold there for almost 3:1, but i expect to lose a lot

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

I think you could apply Beluga to this hand.

btw, what villain does on the flop/turn is an example of a stop-and-go correct? Or am I making that up?

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

doesn't really matter nearly as much that villain's line is super strong, because he's all-in now, and you can't lose any more on the hand. 3:1 is pretty big odds with AA on that board. can we really be so sure we're beat to fold for tha price? i'm not.

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
doesn't really matter nearly as much that villain's line is super strong, because he's all-in now, and you can't lose any more on the hand. 3:1 is pretty big odds with AA on that board. can we really be so sure we're beat to fold for tha price? i'm not.

[/ QUOTE ]

what hand that we are either ahead of or have odds to call against match this play?

odds should always be considered but we are good here pretty much FA of the time here.

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

this is 8/10 all day, he wants you to push on that turn it looks like by throwing out a bet of 4 dollars, but its just so hard to fold-- just curious did he have 8/10 here? i can't see k 9 or k 7 completing then calling a raise but i could be wrong-- i think in the heat of the moment i call but it looks like a made straight to me

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

well, i just don't think its accurate to say that you're behind here almost certainly. maybe villain views op as bluffy after the hand they played before. maybe he would slowplay a hand like an AK against someone he thinks is bluffy. maybe he has nothing. maybe he has something marginal and is trying to put you to the test. you really don't know for sure, especially at these limits. at worst, you are only taking a small loss here, for some pretty good information. not that i would dump a significant ammount for information, but you just can't be that certain about anything against random, wacky, probable losing, micro limit players, so on that board, with those cards, with those odds, i need something a little more compelling than a strong line to make me fold.

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

but the preflop action, the limp, call reraise OOP, not an AK line-- i mean i have to lean towards call because i can't find it in me what hand he has plays out like that and its good for knowledge but the line really looks like 8/10 to me

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

well, sure. obviously you're much more likely beaten than ahead, but you do realise just how often you're going to be right about to that justify a fold, right?