STOCKS prior to Presidential election?
 

From past history, how does the stock market perform one year prior to Presidential elections?

Re: STOCKS prior to Presidential election?
 

Speaking of stocks, it appears to be another down day on Wall Street.

Re: STOCKS prior to Presidential election?
 

the stock market usually does very well the year before the election. There hasn't been a losing pre-election year since 1939 and many reference how the dow has averaged 50% from the low of the midterm year to the high of the pre-election year.

Re: STOCKS prior to Presidential election?
 

Forget the year before, what about the year of the election?

For example, for the timeframe JAN/08-NOV/08 what can we expect from past history?

Re: STOCKS prior to Presidential election?
 

http://finance.yahoo.com

http://www.wsj.com

Do some research, this isn't that hard. I'm not going to do it for you.

Re: STOCKS prior to Presidential election?
 

In the aggregate, 4 year presidential cycle (based on the Dow)...

Pre-Election year (3) > Election year (4) > Midterm year (2) > Post-Election year (1)

Re: STOCKS prior to Presidential election?
 

[ QUOTE ]
In the aggregate, 4 year presidential cycle (based on the Dow)...

Pre-Election year (3) > Election year (4) > Midterm year (2) > Post-Election year (1)

[/ QUOTE ]

Beautiful, thanks.

Can this be confirmed by others?

Re: STOCKS prior to Presidential election?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In the aggregate, 4 year presidential cycle (based on the Dow)...

Pre-Election year (3) > Election year (4) > Midterm year (2) > Post-Election year (1)

[/ QUOTE ]

Beautiful, thanks.

Can this be confirmed by others?

[/ QUOTE ]

For this and other interesting factoids about the market, pick up a copy of Hirch's Stock Trader's Almanac. Its published annually.

Re: STOCKS prior to Presidential election?
 

[ QUOTE ]
In the aggregate, 4 year presidential cycle (based on the Dow)...

Pre-Election year (3) > Election year (4) > Midterm year (2) > Post-Election year (1)

[/ QUOTE ]

how strong was this relationship?

obviously i am in the camp that this is mostly datamining in that i dont think the presidential process has a large effect on the market (as it shouldn't). monetary policy & economic cycles, when they overlap with presidential cycles will be the driver and correlations are thus faulty (if you are thinking about causality for forward looking bets).

far more important things in my opinion than presidential cycles. (liquidity, risk aversion, global cycles etc. are some of the drivers, not US presidential elections)

Barron

Re: STOCKS prior to Presidential election?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In the aggregate, 4 year presidential cycle (based on the Dow)...

Pre-Election year (3) > Election year (4) > Midterm year (2) > Post-Election year (1)

[/ QUOTE ]

how strong was this relationship?

obviously i am in the camp that this is mostly datamining in that i dont think the presidential process has a large effect on the market (as it shouldn't). monetary policy & economic cycles, when they overlap with presidential cycles will be the driver and correlations are thus faulty (if you are thinking about causality for forward looking bets).

far more important things in my opinion than presidential cycles. (liquidity, risk aversion, global cycles etc. are some of the drivers, not US presidential elections)

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have the 2007 update, but since 1833, avg annual gain...
Post Election year: 1.6%
MidTerm year: 3.7%
Election year: 6.8%
Pre-Election year: 10.6%

"Presidential elections every four years have a profound impact on the economy and the stock market. Wars, recessions and bear markets tend to start or occur in the first half of the term; properous times and bull markets, in the latter half."

Interestingly, 8th years of "Decades" have historically also performed very well.

Disclaimer: Past performance, blah blah blah; but its still an interesting trend [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]