Live, deep, nuts on turn, bad river, call $4,000?
 

Live 10-25, almost everyone is sitting deep. I started with 5,000 and have worked my stack up to 13,000, villain sat with about 60,000, which is approximately what he has when this hand comes up.

I had never seen opponent prior to this session, and we had not tangled in any big pots prior to this hand.

Villain opened UTG for 125, 1 caller, I called on the button with 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], blinds fold.

approx. 400 in pot.

Flop: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villain bets 175, next player calls, I make it 1,000 straight, Villain calls.

approx. 2,600 in pot

Turn: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (the best card in the deck)

Villain checks, I bet 2,000. Villain thinks for a while, asks how much I have left, at one point picks up 6,000 in chips and looks like he is thinking about raising, then finally calls.

River: J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain says, “I’m first?” And leads out for 4,000.

Hero?

Re: Live, deep, nuts on turn, bad river, call $4,000?
 

Ac9c? eff it i call

Re: Live, deep, nuts on turn, bad river, call $4,000?
 

Call; sometimes lose your money?

Re: Live, deep, nuts on turn, bad river, call $4,000?
 

if you cant call a 2/3 pot bet here on the river w/ a flush, then you're playing scared.

Re: Live, deep, nuts on turn, bad river, call $4,000?
 

he has KcTc or somthing in that ballpark and you can fold.

Re: Live, deep, nuts on turn, bad river, call $4,000?
 

I didnt give a long enough explanation. If villain sat with 60k in that game he is either very good, or just a rich guy who likes to buy in for a lot.

As the action is described, and that fact that he is probably an unknown, I have no reason to think he is calling down with a set to then bet out when the flush hits nor is he OOP floating.

I think he has a flush here always, and obviosly any flush he has beats you, and I think you can fold here safely.

Im not the best with running numbers but you have to call 4000 into (4000 + 2000 + 2000 + 2600) so 4000/14600 so you have to be right around 27% of the time.

Sure it looks convincing but I think he shows up with a flush here like 85% of the time.

Re: Live, deep, nuts on turn, bad river, call $4,000?
 

ya i was here for this hand, i was sitting directly to your right.

while i have not seen him lead out like a bluff at all like that, i have to think he is still capable if he made a crying call on the turn with a bad hand and thinks this is a good spot to bluff at it. i really can't consider folding this hand, but maybe you can get JTL or other predominantly live guys to comment on it.

Re: Live, deep, nuts on turn, bad river, call $4,000?
 

Call, what is he thinking of raising you with on turn ??

Re: Live, deep, nuts on turn, bad river, call $4,000?
 

The small bet on the flop and the call of your raise really looks like a flopped set to me. I would guess 9's since he opened UTG with a pretty big raise. If he was thinking about check raising you on the turn, it also would indicate a set, but then he might have realized a straight card hit, or thought you would only call his check raise with a hand that beats him. With a big stack him leading out 4k doesn't mean to much, he probably doesn't think you have the flush, since you haven't been playing your hand like a flush draw. You have been playing your hand like 2 pair, trying to blow him out of the pot. I am inclined to think he has a set of 9's and he thinks they are probably good.

My 2 cents.

Re: Live, deep, nuts on turn, bad river, call $4,000?
 

Um, easy instacall?