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-   -   Bottom set from the BB (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=363785)

Brocktoon 03-25-2007 03:09 PM

Bottom set from the BB
 
Poker Stars
Limit Omaha Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
8 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1, folds, MP2 (poster) checks, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero (poster) checks.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6SB, 6 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero...?

Buzz 03-25-2007 03:56 PM

Re: Bottom set from the BB
 
Brocktoon - Wow! Everybody is playing after this flop! In that case, you should play too.

One of these opponents figures to have a higher set only approximately one time out of eight. Note that your six partially blocks the possibility of a set of sixes for an opponent.

Go ahead and raise. And then come out swinging on the turn (assuming the turn doesn't enable a flush or a possible low straight somebody might make).

In a nurmal casino full game, you probably do best to fold. The set of fives probably won't hold up for high, you have one of your own outs (the six) for improving to a full house, and you're only playing for half the pot.

But with five opponents seeing this flop, and all of them but UTG+1 limping to UTG+1's bet, go ahead and complete the check raise.

UTG+1's bet means little or nothing. But nobody raising probably means nobody has a higher set. That's not guaranteed, but that's what it looks like at this point. Raise it, see what happens, and go from there. I'm guessing everyone will call the raise and then probably mostly get out of your way when you bet the turn (depending on the turn card, of course).

Buzz

Brocktoon 03-25-2007 07:39 PM

Re: Bottom set from the BB
 
Interesting suggestion Buzz.

I folded using this reasoning [ QUOTE ]
The set of fives probably won't hold up for high, you have one of your own outs (the six) for improving to a full house, and you're only playing for half the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had a hard time thinking of a turn and river card that I would like with that many players still in. I'm figuring all sorts of straight/flush draws and 2 pair hands are out there and someone's already got a made low. So I just bowed out rather than get myself into trouble fighting for half the pot holding bottom set and 1 of my "outs".

SweetLuckyMe 03-26-2007 08:57 AM

Re: Bottom set from the BB
 
Buzz,
Very interesting rationale. I disagree on getting involved with this hand. The reason(s) being: at this level nobody's folding even a modest draw - there are amazingly few safe or 'good' cards for us - we're playing for half the pot. I can't imagine our actual equity is sufficient to play on, and with virtually zero fold equity it's just a bad spot.

Buzz 03-26-2007 11:12 PM

Re: Bottom set from the BB
 
Brocktoon - Hard to say for sure, but with the betting thus far, Hero's flopped set of fives looks very strong and may not need to improve. But for it to win, Hero should want to move opponents who might otherwise make straights or flushes out of the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
I had a hard time thinking of a turn and river card that I would like with that many players still in.

[/ QUOTE ]Most red cards? The five of spades and anything else but an ace? One of the two missing sixes?

You don't want to see a club on the turn, but without a club, assuming you have a reasonably conservative image, almose anyone without a flopped set of aces or the flopped nut low is going to get out of your way if you check/raise this flop and then come out swinging on the turn.

Your unimproved set of fives probably will win - assuming your move will knock out opponents who would out-draw you on the river. Would you want to play a non-nut club flush draw with the big betting rounds yet to come if you were one of your opponents here?

I don't know.... I have never played at a limit this low. Maybe I'm missing something. However, what I'm suggesting would work well for me in a 3/6 to 10/20 limit game in a B&amp;M casino. I very well might take the whole pot on the third betting round with such a move.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm figuring all sorts of straight/flush draws and 2 pair hands are out there and someone's already got a made low.

[/ QUOTE ]You're right. You want to move them off those hands. You want to push them out of the pot before they make something.

[ QUOTE ]
So I just bowed out rather than get myself into trouble fighting for half the pot holding bottom set and 1 of my "outs".

[/ QUOTE ]You're not necessarily fighting for half the pot if your aggressive stance induces anyone without the stone cold nuts to fold. You could scoop without having to show. And if you do have to show, probably you'll win the high, assuming your aggressive stance pushes some opponents with weak high draws out of the pot.

This is a very clear pushing situation. Therefore, push.

You were out of position, but then when UTG bet, you suddenly gained the advantage of position, at least for this betting round. It doesn't seem to me as though any of your opponents has a set of aces. Bet as though you do! An added advantaage of betting aggressively here is you'll get more action the next time you bet the nuts.

Buzz

DeeJ 03-27-2007 07:27 AM

Re: Bottom set from the BB
 
It is inconceivable that, with 11 SB in the pot and you closing the betting, you have less than 8% pot equity.

You probably have the best high hand. You have some possibilities for lo - your 3 may play if a 2 lands and there's no 34 out there. Plus, you have a 4% chance of hitting another 6 and another 2% chance on hitting the case 5, and that's on the turn. Pump it, if anything, certainly don't fold, call if you must.

Brocktoon 03-27-2007 03:04 PM

Re: Bottom set from the BB
 
Now I'm getting mixed messages.

Buzz, in your first post you say [ QUOTE ]
"In a normal casino full game, you probably do best to fold. The set of fives probably won't hold up for high, you have one of your own outs (the six) for improving to a full house, and you're only playing for half the pot."

[/ QUOTE ]

How is this game different from a "normal casino game"? Are you saying that players in a casino are harder to push off of hands? That's probably true but you are talking about 3/6 and up and this is .5/1, they are probably pretty similiar.

Then I say that I folded and your next post makes it seem like you think its a CLEAR pushing situation and say this, [ QUOTE ]
what I'm suggesting would work well for me in a 3/6 to 10/20 limit game in a B&amp;M casino. I very well might take the whole pot on the third betting round with such a move.///This is a very clear pushing situation. Therefore, push.


[/ QUOTE ]

I thought folding was the best play in a casino? Also, in the case of there being a bet and 4 callers already in the pot ahead of you on the flop, is there EVER a situation where its raise or fold? I think the "raise or fold" thing is one of the most overused expressions in multi-way limit poker pots and this seems like no exception. If raising is the BEST play, then surely calling ranks ahead of folding right?

DeeJ seems to agree with that: [ QUOTE ]
Pump it, if anything, certainly don't fold, call if you must.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a spot where folding, calling, and raising are all relatively close in EV? If not how should they be ranked and just how bad/good is each option?

Buzz 03-27-2007 05:06 PM

Re: Bottom set from the BB
 
[ QUOTE ]
Now I'm getting mixed messages.

[/ QUOTE ]Brocktoon - Sorry if it seems to you that I have not been clear. Didn't I suggest raising in my first post in this thread? And then didn't I again suggest raising in my second post in this thread? This is my third post in this thread. For the third time, I think Hero should raise when, after having originally checked, the betting gets back to Hero on the second betting round.

This would be an unusual play for me. I do not usually check/raise - and if I do, it is usually planned in advance.

But this situation is unusual in that suddently an opportunity has presented itself. If somebody other than the first better had bet, or if somebody had raised, the situation would not be the same. If you had a wild man image, you would not be able to take advantage of this opportunity. But sitting there with your cards after this action, I'd feel like the fox who had gotten into the chicken coop.

[ QUOTE ]
How is this game different from a "normal casino game"?

[/ QUOTE ]I didn't mean to imply that your game was not a normal game (whatever "normal" is).

There seems a special opportunity for you here and I think you need to seize these opportunities when they occur. You checked, UTG+1 bet, and then everybody who had limped to see the flop on the first betting round (except UTG+1, who bet) limped again on the second betting round. What does that look like to you?
[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying that players in a casino are harder to push off of hands?

[/ QUOTE ]No. I don't know if they are or not.
[ QUOTE ]
That's probably true but you are talking about 3/6 and up and this is .5/1, they are probably pretty similiar.

[/ QUOTE ]Perhaps. Different tables at the same higher limit play differently. I'd guess some of them are probably very much the same as your game.
[ QUOTE ]
Then I say that I folded and your next post makes it seem like you think its a CLEAR pushing situation

[/ QUOTE ]Yes. I think it is. I didn't phrase it that way in my first post in this thread, but I don't read my first post as anything other than a suggestion that you push, although I did not use the word "push" in that post.

Hopefully I keep an open mind, and that means I can have one set of thoughts when I first think about something and then sometimes, upon reflection, what I think changes, at least somewhat. Isn't it the same with you?
[ QUOTE ]
I thought folding was the best play in a casino?

[/ QUOTE ]Well... folding would seem the correct play if the action was different.
[ QUOTE ]
Also, in the case of there being a bet and 4 callers already in the pot ahead of you on the flop, is there EVER a situation where its raise or fold?

[/ QUOTE ]I think so. For me it would generally depend more on who was involved than on the particular cards I held.
[ QUOTE ]
I think the "raise or fold" thing is one of the most overused expressions in multi-way limit poker pots and this seems like no exception. If raising is the BEST play, then surely calling ranks ahead of folding right?

[/ QUOTE ]I don't think so. Calling would sometimes be my last choice.

But as I think about it, calling is not my last choice in this instance. Did I express a preference for folding rather than calling? Honestly when I first just focused on your starting hand and the flop - and those images are what entered my thinking first - my immediate gut reaction was to fold. But then when I read your words and considered the action, I thought you should continue rather than fold, and moreover that you should raise rather than call.
[ QUOTE ]
Is this a spot where folding, calling, and raising are all relatively close in EV?

[/ QUOTE ]I don't know. Before reading your question I had not given consideration to EV.[ QUOTE ]
If not how should they be ranked and just how bad/good is each option?

[/ QUOTE ]I think you could probably fold or call here and it wouldn't affect your chip count much. If you call, you'll sometimes win part of the pot and sometimes you'll lose. I'd guess it's close to even for calling. If you fold, you'll be happy when your hand would not have ended up a winner. I'd guess it was close to even for folding. It seems kind of blah one way or the other.

But I could make a move here and I very well might be able to pull it off. At least I feel confident I could pull it off often enough to make going for it worthwhile. My move would be to raise after having already checked and then come out swinging on the third betting round (depending on the turn card).

I was trying to be helpful. Sorry if I confused you.

Buzz

Brocktoon 03-27-2007 06:16 PM

Re: Bottom set from the BB
 
[ QUOTE ]
I was trying to be helpful. Sorry if I confused you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know, and I thank you for it. This game itself is just very confusing and it frustrates me, nothing personal.

Usually when I post a hand where I get aggressive and or go to showdown with a second rate high hand the genric response is "just fold the flop with that dubious high hand. You're only playing for 1/2 the pot and you'll be drawn out on most of the time for high anyway, its not worth it. Just muck the flop and you avoid the tough spots on the big streets..etc."

Then I get this hand, make what I'm almost sure is a good laydown and it turns out it may not have been.

There's just a lot of gray in this game, moreso than other forms of poker like HE or Stud, and it definitely irritates me that I'm having a hard time "getting" it.

I do appreciate all the time you take to give helpful replies here. That said I like to question things people say, expecially if I think they know something I dont. There's no hostility there though.

chaos 03-28-2007 09:09 AM

Re: Bottom set from the BB
 
In a loose low limit game it will be hard to push people out even though your betting sequence of check raise the flop bet the turn shows great strength. Assuming everyone calls the check raise there will be 18 small bets in the pot. Players will be getting at least 10-1 to call your turn bet. Many players may not realize how much strength your betting sequence represents. They will see a big pot and call. Online players tend to be less observant than B&amp;M players.

I would consider just calling on the flop. Then if the turn is favorable (the case 5, any 3, a non-club 2, or any other card not making a straight or a club flush possible) I would go for the check raise.

It may be more profitable to try and capitalize on loose players tending to call than on trying to push them out of a pot.

Just another thought to consider.

chaos


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