NL100: TPFD vs obvious set
 

I used to auto-shove these, but now I wonder what is the best move. The villain is decent, and I HAVE to be behind right now. I know I have 0 fold equity at this point. I am almost positive this is a set, and he lets me draw relatively cheap. What is the best move: call/fold turn if I miss, or just shove the flop ?

These situations really annoy me, and I wonder what you guys do with a good pair/good draw when you are almost positively behind. Thanks.



Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($105.20)
SB ($188.90)
BB ($160.05)
UTG ($144.70)
MP ($113.60)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
2 folds</font>, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $3.50, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($12) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB bets $6,Hero raises to $15, SB folds, BB raises to $30, Hero ????

Re: NL100: TPFD vs obvious set
 

Pretty sure BB has a set. This kind of minraise shows he'll pay off if flush hits, since a decent bit of his stack is in there. I probably call and fold a nonclub turn. However, I almost always shove these. Now that I think about it, one only has 36% equity at best in the hand (I doubt he has like 45clubs).

Re: NL100: TPFD vs obvious set
 

Call and try and hit.

Re: NL100: TPFD vs obvious set
 

call fold is definitely best. folding is probably better than pushing. I mean I just assume here that this guy cant be that good, tiny 3-betting OOP is soooo bad on such a draw heavy board. So he is almost definitely giving you more money if you hit. Against better/trickier players pushing starts to look better.