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-   -   Parlay or not? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=331016)

foolishdrunk 02-13-2007 03:19 PM

Parlay or not?
 
I was just curious on what the average sports gambler thinks on parlay's. I have stayed away from them, because I believe that was the reason last time I bet I parlayed way too much. Now I am 43-12 in the last 6 days with my live bets included. Without I am 27-6. I have yet to make a parlay, and I was wondering what you guys thought about them. Do you like to do them? If you do use them, how often? How many teams are included? Do you mix under/over with moneyline and spread?? Etc, I'd like some detailed input.

thing85 02-13-2007 03:27 PM

Re: Parlay or not?
 
Most people here use them for entertainment/degenerate gambling purposes. They're generally regarded as -EV bets, minus a few exceptions.

igetbadbeat 02-13-2007 03:28 PM

Re: Parlay or not?
 
I bet up to .2u on parlays but it's more for action than anything else.

brendanb438 02-13-2007 03:29 PM

Re: Parlay or not?
 
1. Basketball - Marquette - moneyline (-3000)
for the entire game held on Feb 7 at 8:00pm [winner]
2. Basketball - Wisconsin - moneyline (-700)
for the entire game held on Feb 7 at 8:00pm [winner]
3. Basketball - Temple - moneyline (-1300)
for the entire game held on Feb 7 at 7:00pm [winner]
4. Basketball - North Carolina - moneyline (-200)
for the entire game held on Feb 7 at 9:00pm [winner]
5. Basketball - Kansas - moneyline (-700)
for the entire game held on Feb 7 at 9:00pm [winner]
6. Basketball - UNLV - moneyline (-2500)
for the entire game held on Feb 7 at 10:00pm [winner]
7. Basketball - Boston College - spread -5 (-110)
for the entire game held on Feb 7 at 7:00pm [winner]
8. Basketball - Wright State - spread -1½ (-110)
for the entire game held on Feb 7 at 8:00pm [winner]


That is one of mine from the other day. Paid out 7.16 units for every 1 unit bet.

I usually like to bet a mix of MLs, totals and spreads with parlays. Doing all ML parlays sometimes works out, but other times like when NC loses to NCST you go broke. I usually will aim for 4 to 8 teams, the 4 or so MLs I am completely confident about and a couple spreads/totals I am also confident about.

-Brendan

foolishdrunk 02-13-2007 03:29 PM

Re: Parlay or not?
 
So in a nutshell if you have some $ you can afford too lose, its okay for entertainment?? Do you do two or 3 team bets? Or do you like to mix and match bets..

Queensgrad 02-13-2007 03:50 PM

Re: Parlay or not?
 
I like to take a few ML favs and Parlay to +100 and bet a unit. It seems to be working out but i am not keeping good stats on it right now. There is usually a nice ML fav go down each night, so you cant just pick them blind.

For example tonight:
Texas Tech @ Texas A&M (ML) Texas A&M -1150
Virginia Tech @ North Carolina (ML) North Carolina -2200
POR TBlazers @ MIA Heat (ML) MIA Heat -525
DAL Mavericks @ MIL Bucks (ML) DAL Mavericks -600
SAC Kings @ HOU Rockets (ML) HOU Rockets -350
5 Play Parlays



Tofu_boy 02-13-2007 04:11 PM

Re: Parlay or not?
 
If you want to be long term winner just bet single.
if you want to win 260 on the 2 team then bet
130 on each team.
2 times you win 1 team lose 1 team you lose 13 juice $
but on parlay those 2 times you lose $200.
1 time you lose both team you loser $286.
1 times you win both team you win $260.

so about 50% of time you win 1 lose 1 you lose $13
25% of the time you win both team you win $260
25% lose - $286

if you do 2 team parlay
50% of the time you will lose -100
25% of the time you lose - $286
25% Win +260

if you do 2 team single
50% times you win 1 lose 1 you lose 13+ 13 = -$26
25% you lose both team you lose -$286
25% of the time you win you win +260.

do the math single game alway better.

Queensgrad 02-13-2007 04:15 PM

Re: Parlay or not?
 
[ QUOTE ]

do the math single game alway better.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with your math....Unless you dont want to tie up a large chunk of change in one game just to win a little. I always feel bad betting a -500 line in the regular season NBA, which is what i bet

BooNaNy 02-13-2007 05:26 PM

Re: Parlay or not?
 
Parlys are considered sucker bets but when it hits, man... it sure is exciting!!!!!

stickneymarc 02-13-2007 05:57 PM

Re: Parlay or not?
 
If you are small stakes you can make a $20 bet on 4 to 6 parlay mix of ML, O/U, spreads and if you are lucky enough to hit you are probably 450 to 600 up. Only have to hit every 3rd to 4th week if you play once a day. Parlays are cheap way for small time bettor to have fun. Kind of like the lottery. I've made and hit 8 team parlays for 20 and payout almost 4000. Make a 4 or 5 team huge favorite parlay on the ML and you can use that to cover the lottery parlay.

I am a degenerate though. Went to bed last night and parlayed the hawaii and gonzagas games just because they were the last games of the night.


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