Am I going to lose my ass (football board)?
 

I run a football board every superbowl. I thought for this year I would mix things up. Instead of the typical splitting of the pot four ways for each square (quarter) hit, I thought of doing something a little different.

I was thinking that for each quarter hit I would guarantee $1000 (this is a $100 per square board). In addition to this I would have each person answer four parlay type questions (beat the spread?, who will score first? combined score plus or minus, etc.). If their square hit and they got all four answers correct they would hit a 'jackpot'. Instead of the $1000 (and not in addition to it) they would get a much bigger prize. I'm thinking that around $8,000 would be even money if they had a 60% chance of getting each individual question right (worst case scenario for me).

Is my donkey math correct, or am I going to go broke?

Re: Am I going to lose my ass (football board)?
 

Can I at least get a formula to determine the even money mark from someone? Thanks.

Re: Am I going to lose my ass (football board)?
 

EV=p(all right)*payout
=p(q1 right)*p(q2right)*p(q3 right)*p(q4 right)*payout.
Assuming each question is idependent...

=(.6)^4*-8000=.1286*-8000=-1036.80.

But, it is clear that these aren't independent events. Clearly, who scores first has a big impact on if the spread is covered. There may be others that I am missing too.

I'm not entire sure how your system works, but if more than 1 person has an oppertunity to wik 8k, should also be thinking about variance, risk of ruin, value at risk, etc.