Combo draw 300bb deep
 

Villain is GRABYOURANKLES and has 26/18 stats. Would a larger flop bet gain an appreciable amount of fold equity? Does the Q effect your decision on whether to two barrel?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $397
UTG+1: $412.30
CO: $366.80
Hero: $1162.60
SB: $1254.50
BB: $386

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $14</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $46</font>, BB folds, Hero calls $32 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was $62)</font>.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($96, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $70</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $217</font>, SB calls $147 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was $383)</font>.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($530, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($530, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $300</font>, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $300 returned to SB.

Results:
Final pot: $530

Re: Combo draw 300bb deep
 

I think I prefer a flop call here because you have good implied odds on the gutshot and I don't think he's folding better hands and overcards don't really have good equity against you.

Re: Combo draw 300bb deep
 

I would either raise more on the flop so I can shove the turn comfortably, or call.

As played, turn and river are fine

Re: Combo draw 300bb deep
 

Do you think villain would 3bet AA/KK here on the flop? This is kind of similar to HEK's thread in HSNL earlier- I think the flop raise is fine, and raising any more is kind of ridiculous, but getting checkraised on the turn would not be happy. I think the Q is essentially a blank - it only matters if one of you has a flush draw with a Q or if he hit a two outer to make a set.

Thinking about this some more, if you're trying to get him to lay down an overpair, it's a bit tricky with your bet sizes, as a near pot bet on the turn is like 400-500, and if he calls that, on the river he's facing a 400-500 bet into a 1700 river or something. He should probably be folding AA/KK there, but he might get obstinate.

Another option would be to call the flop (pot ~250?) and then raise a turn, which has a lot more FE, or just call the turn as well and raise the river with position.

Re: Combo draw 300bb deep
 

Bet $188 on the turn.

Re: Combo draw 300bb deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would either raise more on the flop so I can shove the turn comfortably, or call.

As played, turn and river are fine

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly my thoughts.

Scott

Re: Combo draw 300bb deep
 

I play it the same

Re: Combo draw 300bb deep
 

[censored] just saw how deep you 2 were. just call teh flop.

Re: Combo draw 300bb deep
 

I'm 99.9% sure he doesn't have a set because the board is so low. I'm a 5:4 favorite over TT+ (w/ heart) and 3:2 over AhTh+/TT+ (w/ no heart) on the flop.

How much can I expect to extract when I hit which draws, from which hands? If a heart or 6 hits I probably won't be able to get much (anything?), unless he picks up a redraw to a better flush. If a 3 hits, that will be sweet and I might even get his whole stack, but only if he has AA/Ax -- if he has TT-KK it will suck. If he has overcards, say, AK, and a Kh turns, then just calling would seems genius; but if a Kd comes, it doesn't. My mind is really bogging down in all the different scenarios. I can't generate the tree of green +EV and red -EV branches.

Usually when I semi-bluff, I want people to fold, but with 17+ outs, I wonder if I it's more EV to shove and hope the ridiculous overbet induces AA to think "flush draw" and call. And if he folds, well, thats fine too, a free $166 in my pocket. As a supposed professional gambler, I'm supposed to be comfortable betting $1200 with a ~4:3 edge, aren't I?

Re: Combo draw 300bb deep
 

uh? he NEVER calls a $1200 bet into a &lt;$200 pot without a set unless hes unbelievably [censored] retarded.

shoving is the worst of all options imo.

anyway I raise bigger on the flop but as played it's fine.