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-   -   6-max NL25 TT facing all-in on raggedy flop (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=269999)

Yorkshire Pud 11-28-2006 11:26 AM

6-max NL25 TT facing all-in on raggedy flop
 
Villain is 31/19/infinity from 32 hands

Not really noticed anything out of the norm from villain but this all-in bet just didn't seem right but left me stumped as to what to do.

Was my line correct up to the all-in? Is 3-betting PF with TT asking for trouble? I'll post results if I get a few replies and they are wanted.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP ($29.70)
CO ($24.90)
Button ($25.05)
SB ($27.25)
Hero ($25.25)
UTG ($34.65)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB (poster) raises to $0.9</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.75</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $4.9</font>, Hero calls $2.

Flop: ($10) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB calls $27.15 (All-In), Hero????

Djeorge 11-28-2006 11:46 AM

Re: 6-max NL25 TT facing all-in on raggedy flop
 
I think this is close IMO. I always see these sort of villains getting ultra-frisky in blind battles but I'm not sure you have the ~40% equity you need.

If we narrow his range to overpairs and flush draws, say 50% of each, then you have ~32% equity. Thing is I just don't see villain openpushing with AA or KK etc that often and sometimes he might show up with whiffed overcards or 99, so i probably close my eyes and call.

Jouster777 11-28-2006 11:47 AM

Re: 6-max NL25 TT facing all-in on raggedy flop
 
Overpair vs. NFD vs. bluff

I'd say the latter two are more likely than the first but its a high variance call. I think its EV+ against preliminary indications on this villain so I would call.

ChipStorm 11-28-2006 11:56 AM

Re: 6-max NL25 TT facing all-in on raggedy flop
 
31/19 for 32 hands tells you zero about how villain really plays, especially 3-bets.

This looks in all respects like a big pair. By 5/10 rule the final preflop call is very, very close.

I think flop is a very easy fold.

Jouster777 11-28-2006 12:01 PM

Re: 6-max NL25 TT facing all-in on raggedy flop
 
[ QUOTE ]
31/19 for 32 hands tells you zero about how villain really plays, especially 3-bets.

This looks in all respects like a big pair. By 5/10 rule the final preflop call is very, very close.

I think flop is a very easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ] As soon as I hit submit I said to much self "preliminary indications" are not really enough. We are about EV neutral with the NFD...I'll retract my bad comments and say not enough here for a call...and this overhasty response may explain my recent slew of bad calls though.

SwingVelvet 11-28-2006 12:11 PM

Re: 6-max NL25 TT facing all-in on raggedy flop
 
One of the best advices I've heard from a high stakes player was "I don't play for stacks with one pair unless i have a read."

If I only followed this more often... just fold.


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