Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

Am I completely nuts to try this bluff? Villain is 30/20 through 20 hands FWIW.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)
Hero ($58)
UTG ($28.60)
UTG+1 ($140.45)
MP1 ($125.55)
MP2 ($36.15)
MP3 ($41.15)
CO ($169.50)
Button ($43.50)
SB ($121.80)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $3.

Flop: ($8.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $13</font>, CO calls $8.

Turn: ($34.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, CO calls $20.

River: ($74.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $21 (All-In)</font>, CO calls $21.

Final Pot: $116.50

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Kd As (high card, ace).
CO has Ad Ac (one pair, aces).
Outcome: CO wins $116.50. </font>

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

getting 5-1 on the call probably not

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

yes. you're crazy. you want him to fold for $21 more in a $95 pot?

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

I'm asking primarily about the turn, not the river.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

this is fine sir.

<font color="white"> short stackers [censored] suck, but make plays like this... </font>

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

ummm ..your flop re-raise is terrible ... if u want to make a re-raise that bet should be more like 18-20 ... 13 is wayyy too weak.

were u to make a sizeable raise there and still get called, you would know by then that future bets are probably not going to work and youd save yourself some money on later streets.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
this is fine sir.

short stackers [censored] suck, but make plays like this...

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I understand what you are saying here.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

The turn bet is somewhat ok.

Why oh why oh why oh why bet river?????

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The turn bet is somewhat ok.

Why oh why oh why oh why bet river?????

[/ QUOTE ]

Because some people will call a two-barrel bluff but not three-barrels, and it was a relatively cheap bet to make relative to the pot. If villain folds 25% of the time I am profitable, and he really took his time calling the turn, so I thought I had enough of a chance. Checking just gives up the pot...it's not like he's calling the turn with AQ.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

I don't think there's any way he folds to $20 on river after calling $20 on turn. Certainly not 25% of the time.