Holding Trips against a flush draw
 

Quick question about this situation, maybe something thats commonly known that I'm not aware of but Ive been thinking about it.

If I'm holding a set on the flop and my opponent is holding a flush draw, do I automatically subtract an out from him because of my full house possibilities.

For example, I have a set with a pair on the board, I hold AKd flop comes KhKs5s. Now he has 9 outs, but if any non spade comes on the turn that takes away one of his outs if i hit that Ill make my full house. It doesn't matter if I hit it on the turn or on the river either, as long as i HIt it. So if the turn comes Jd, then he loses his Js as an out. But if he hits the Js on the turn, then now I gain all the other J's as outs. So does he automatically lose an out cause I can make a full house??

Re: Holding Trips against a flush draw
 

You can look at it that way, I guess.

The better way of looking at it is this: You have 10 outs to improve going to the river (the case K [quads], three A's, three 5's, and three J's). That's one more than his nine. And yes, as long as a non spade hits the turn, he loses an out unless he's drawing to a straight flush.

Re: Holding Trips against a flush draw
 

you can look at it however you want.

If you hit trips, he's down to 8 outs anyway on the flop since you are either stealing one in your hand (or taking away an out for your boat), then on a non-spade turn, he loses another. So against trips he'll have 7 outs going to the river if he hasn't made his hand.

If he hits on the turn, he doesn't need outs because he has made his hand. If anything he'd hate to see another flush card unless he has the Ace. You'll have 10 outs to improve if he hits.

Re: Holding Trips against a flush draw
 

He has 8 cards to improve twice, and about 1/3 of the time that he does improve he will still lose. So you can deduct a bit more than 2 "outs" if you're going to look at it like that.

Re: Holding Trips against a flush draw
 

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He has 8 cards to improve twice, and about 1/3 of the time that he does improve he will still lose. So you can deduct a bit more than 2 "outs" if you're going to look at it like that.

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He does not have 8 outs twice. He has 8 outs, followed (assuming he misses on the turn) by 7 outs.

If he hits his (non-pairing) flush on the turn, you have 10 re-draw outs on the river.

Basically a set against a flush draw is a 3 to 1 favourite. This means the set will win 3 times out of 4 or 75% of the time. If the flush draw also has a gutshot or runner runner straight potential then the set becomes slightly less of a favourite:

Set against flush draw with gutshot is approximately 65%/35% in favour of the set.

Set against flush draw with a runner runner straight possibility is approximately 73%/27% in favour of the set (note the runner runner possibility is worth around 2% additional equity)