($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

Villain is probably raising a fair number of hands here. Do you fold, push or stop and go?

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t400 with t25 antes (5 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t4240)
CO (t695)
Button (t4770)
Hero (t2270)
BB (t1525)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">Button raises to t1200</font>, Hero ?

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

Seems like a good spot for a SNG. He's certainly not folding preflop. Folding is silly IMO.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

I def shove, there ARE 2 shorter stacks than you BUT, you arent on the bub and would only have 5 BBs if you fold. AQ 3 handed I'm in here in just about every acenario.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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Seems like a good spot for a SNG. He's certainly not folding preflop. Folding is silly IMO.

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I guess SNG is OK, I'm just not a huge fan.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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Seems like a good spot for a SNG. He's certainly not folding preflop. Folding is silly IMO.

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I guess SNG is OK, I'm just not a huge fan.

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Well he's not folding preflop. But he might after a missed flop. So it can't hurt to try.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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Seems like a good spot for a SNG. He's certainly not folding preflop. Folding is silly IMO.

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I guess SNG is OK, I'm just not a huge fan.

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Well he's not folding preflop. But he might after a missed flop. So it can't hurt to try.

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I guess this is one of the few spots I can agree with.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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Seems like a good spot for a SNG. He's certainly not folding preflop. Folding is silly IMO.

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Your hand is too strong for a SNG in my opinion. Just push it.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

Sure it's strong but it's far from invincible.

I really think a stop and go is best to give ourselves the best chance of not busting here because of the stack sizes.. wouldn't you agree?

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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Sure it's strong but it's far from invincible.

I really think a stop and go is best to give ourselves the best chance of not busting here because of the stack sizes.. wouldn't you agree?

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Note that you aren't in the BB in any case so I really think a push is superior.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

Either way you want to achieve this, get your dough in the middle. I can agreee with a SNG, but by default I shove PF. Main point being, a fold is out of the question.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

I don't like a SNG w/ AQ. You likely have the best hand, otherwise he has 2 unders. SNG's are better when you have the worst hand, or when you're the one with the pair since you don't want to see all 5 cards. If he's a decently smart player and can pin you on making the SNG then he'll almost surely call with a mid pocket anyway.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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Seems like a good spot for a SNG. He's certainly not folding preflop. Folding is silly IMO.

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There is a good chance he is calling any flop push. You have about half the pot behind. Also if you were getting FE. You would be losing a ton of equity to ax and qx hands.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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Sure it's strong but it's far from invincible.

I really think a stop and go is best to give ourselves the best chance of not busting here because of the stack sizes.. wouldn't you agree?

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Note that you aren't in the BB in any case so I really think a push is superior.

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Pineapple isn't a good player so I wouldn't listen to his advice. Don't overrate AQ, that's a rookie mistake. Find a better spot.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

Ya either push or sng to be honest I don't think it really matters that much which one you choose.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

Just push, a stop and go will usually only get him to fold worse hands.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

I understand that. It will also get me to avoid a showdown, which I feel is quite important with the stack sizes and might fold out something like a PP on a high card board.

Ryan

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

Push. SnG might get him to fold a dominated ace or queen that wiffed on the flop, but he will call with any pair most likely. Basicly he is only folding hands you want him to pay full price with if you stop and go.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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Sure it's strong but it's far from invincible.

I really think a stop and go is best to give ourselves the best chance of not busting here because of the stack sizes.. wouldn't you agree?

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Note that you aren't in the BB in any case so I really think a push is superior.

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Pineapple isn't a good player so I wouldn't listen to his advice. Don't overrate AQ, that's a rookie mistake. Find a better spot.

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If you cant understand the validity of the argument in this situation then you are a rookie mistake. I suggest you open up a little and give yourself an opportunity for innovation.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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I understand that. It will also get me to avoid a showdown, which I feel is quite important with the stack sizes and might fold out something like a PP on a high card board.

Ryan

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Push. SnG might get him to fold a dominated ace or queen that wiffed on the flop, but he will call with any pair most likely. Basicly he is only folding hands you want him to pay full price with if you stop and go.


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Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

uhh, for anyone saying try a SNG.... why? your hand is likely the best and i would not mind at all to get it all in preflop with this good of a hand...

as a matter of fact.. i think your goal here should be how to get it all in as a favorite.... pushing is how..

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

I think stop and go and fold are your two options. Stop and go is CLEARLY superior to pushing preflop. Do the math &amp; you'll see. If he has a hand like KJo or even JTo you would much prefer him to fold on the flop.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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I think stop and go and fold are your two options. Stop and go is CLEARLY superior to pushing preflop. Do the math &amp; you'll see. If he has a hand like KJo or even JTo you would much prefer him to fold on the flop.

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hmm, well since youve already done the math for us... how about saving us some time? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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I think stop and go and fold are your two options. Stop and go is CLEARLY superior to pushing preflop. Do the math &amp; you'll see. If he has a hand like KJo or even JTo you would much prefer him to fold on the flop.

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Either way, a fold is terrible IMO.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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I think stop and go and fold are your two options. Stop and go is CLEARLY superior to pushing preflop. Do the math &amp; you'll see. If he has a hand like KJo or even JTo you would much prefer him to fold on the flop.

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CLEARLY, huh? Why don't you explain that to me. I prefer a preflop push.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

I push. SnG no good in my book. I want all the chips I can get my hands on. It's not the bubble. You need to last a while before the money.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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I think stop and go and fold are your two options. Stop and go is CLEARLY superior to pushing preflop. Do the math &amp; you'll see. If he has a hand like KJo or even JTo you would much prefer him to fold on the flop.

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CLEARLY, huh? Why don't you explain that to me. I prefer a preflop push.

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i'm sure you have all the mathematical skills you need to see that i'm right, if you just bother to spend the twenty minutes. equivocating in this situation is sloppy thinking.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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I think stop and go and fold are your two options. Stop and go is CLEARLY superior to pushing preflop. Do the math &amp; you'll see. If he has a hand like KJo or even JTo you would much prefer him to fold on the flop.

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hmm, well since youve already done the math for us... how about saving us some time? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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come on man don't be so lazy that's not how you're gonna improve

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

Don't want him to get of cheap with his AT or KQ. And I won't do the [censored] math. Why don't you do it, you will see that I am clearly right. Clearly.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

ilya, telling us that an SNG is clearly superior to a push based on the math and not actually posting the math isnt gonna help prove your point.

you're basically asking everyone here to go and do the math by themselves rather than you just posting it here...

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

I would just shove here. Maybe slightly deeper stacks would be fine for a SNG...so that the shove would cost him a greater portion or his stack.

In any event, you're ahead most of the time. Oh well. I don't do math. I go by feeeeeeeelllll, baby.

I do think the 1st thing I said made sense, anyways.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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I don't do math. I go by feeeeeeeelllll, baby.

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you are my twin.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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Don't want him to get of cheap with his AT or KQ. And I won't do the [censored] math. Why don't you do it, you will see that I am clearly right. Clearly.

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lol. you think i care if you understand i'm right or not? i'm just trying to help but if you don't want to be helped well, that's your loss

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

lol

The fact you think this is a trivial math problem is telling. It can be solved mathematically obviously, but it will take a lot of assumptions.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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lol

The fact you think this is a trivial math problem is telling. It can be solved mathematically obviously, but it will take a lot of assumptions.

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i never said it was trivial, i just said that i thought you could definitely do it.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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ilya, telling us that an SNG is clearly superior to a push based on the math and not actually posting the math isnt gonna help prove your point.

you're basically asking everyone here to go and do the math by themselves rather than you just posting it here...

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ok fine you win, here's the math. first we have to give him a range wide enough that pushing preflop is +$EV at all. so, let's put him on 22+/A2+/K4+/Q6+/J7+/T7+/97+/87. Notice that I made this range relatively heavy in dominated hands.
Then:

22+, A2+, K4+, Q6+, J7+, T7+, 97+, 87

SHOVE:

+0.3

stop and go:

on the flop he will fold non-pairs whenever he doens't make a pair

and he will fold pairs never


so, pairs make up 72 combos, he always calls: 35% when he does this

J7+....87 make up 160 combos: 30% when he does have a pair

6 outs 3 times, will get a pair 33% of the time, 55 combos pair 105 combos no pair

Q6+ makes up 72 combos: 40% when he does have a pair

5 outs 3 times, will get a pair 30% of the time, 22 times pair 50 times no pair

K4+ makes up 140 combos: 30% when he does have a pair

6 outs 3 times, pair 33% of the time, 50 pair, 90 no pair

A2+ makes up 141 combos: 40% when he does have a pair

5 outs 3 times, 30% pair, 41 pair 100 no pair


so altogether he has 585 combos

on flop he folds 345 combos

on flop he calls 240 combos

when he calls we have

72*35 + 55*30 + 22*40 + 50*30 + 41*40 = 2520 + 1650 + 880 + 1500 + 1640 = 8190

8190/240 = 34% chance of winning

so 159 times we lose it all

81 times we double up


when we lose it all: 0 equity

when we double up: 31.6% equity

when we take it down: 27.6% equity

159*0 + 31.6*81 + 27.6*345 = 2559.6 + 9522 = 12081.6

12081.6/585 = 20.6%, I.E. +1.6%

vs

EV shove preflop 19.3%, I.E. +0.3%

And this despite the fact that I deliberately made all of my rough equity estimates err on the side that would favor pushing preflop. E.g., I underestimate our equity when opponent flops a pair &amp; overestimate how often he will call on the flop with a pair in the hole.

Note also that BB is short enough that whether we shove or coldcall preflop will have little to no effect on his overpushing range.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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12081.6/585 = 20.6%, I.E. +1.6%

vs

EV shove preflop 19.3%, I.E. +0.3%

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hmm, so are you saying that a SNG is +1.3% more than just a preflop push? if so, then you seriously screwed up somewhere in the math...

there is no possible way they are this far apart... or else i dont know how to play poker.

we need curtains to answer this hand... hes never wrong, ya know. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

I think it depends on the opponent here. Against tighter opponents I would stop n go here. Against loose aggressive players I would re-raise all in preflop. I am never folding. Youd situation appears to be a loose aggressive opponent so I would push.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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12081.6/585 = 20.6%, I.E. +1.6%

vs

EV shove preflop 19.3%, I.E. +0.3%

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hmm, so are you saying that a SNG is +1.3% more than just a preflop push? if so, then you seriously screwed up somewhere in the math...

there is no possible way they are this far apart... or else i dont know how to play poker.

we need curtains to answer this hand... hes never wrong, ya know. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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i know it seems counterintuitive, but the key here is that there's so much in the pot already once he raises that getting that last thousand in, even as a favorite, isn't worth enough to offset the increased risk of busting.

it's funny that you mention curtains because it was a post of his that initially motivated me to do the math for these kinds of situations. i didn't believe it myself at first, either.

if you still don't believe me, you should do the math yourself. heck, it's not a bad idea to do the math yourself either way. these situations come up fairly often and nothing will help you get a grasp on them like working through the calcs yourself. that's why i was reluctant to post them.

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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on the flop he will fold non-pairs whenever he doens't make a pair

and he will fold pairs never


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I think that's generalizing too much.

For example, is he calling with 4-4 after the flop comes A-Q-10?

Or, is he folding K-J on a flop of 3-3-6 getting decent pot odds? What if he flops a flush draw? He's certainly not folding that with the pot odds on the flop.

I realize calculating all of that would be a pain, but without doing all that can you really provide an accurate EV number for SnG?

Re: ($114) AQ 5-handed vs big stack?
 

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on the flop he will fold non-pairs whenever he doens't make a pair

and he will fold pairs never


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I think that's generalizing too much.

For example, is he calling with 4-4 after the flop comes A-Q-10?

Or, is he folding K-J on a flop of 3-3-6 getting decent pot odds? What if he flops a flush draw? He's certainly not folding that with the pot odds on the flop.

I realize calculating all of that would be a pain, but without doing all that can you really provide an accurate EV number for SnG?

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Fair points, but is he folding A8 or KJ on a flop of Q33 getting those same nice pot odds? Is he folding Q8 on a 733 flop? Is he always calling with 44 on a KT8 flop? I think the generalizations cut both ways.