32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

I contemplated not sending this hand for fear that it will give away too much. But what the heck. This hand was from a couple of months ago. The stage is set for some high drama. Bld and I both have enormous stacks in the 2K 6-max game. Bld has just under 16K and I have 23K. We are across the table from each other and while we are sort of running over the table, we are fighting each other hard for the table captaincy.

Some background for those of you that are not familiar with Bld's game. He is in my opinion my toughest opponent on Party and by a pretty wide margin at that. Exceptional hand reader, courageous bluffer, can make huge calls with thin holdings and can also lay down huge hands (important fact when considering this hand). He plays almost (but not quite) as LAG as I do. So we've gone to battle quite a few times with quirky hands flopping pairs and gutshots vs goofy two pairs and stuff. While we have played huge pots against each other a number of times in the past(often with marginal holdings, draws, and bluffs), we have not tangled in a huge pot in this session yet.

UTG (about 2K to start the hand) limps. BLd limps in second position. It folds to me in the cutoff, and I raise to 65 with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Blinds fold and limpers call.

Flop is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG bets only 60 into a pot of about 225. Bld calls the 60. I raise to 190. UTG folds. Bld raises to 600. I lick my chops. I am hoping he has the set he is representing (certainly the cold call, followed by a reraise of the preflop raiser is a really powerful move). Bld is capable of making that move with a pair plus draw type hand; however, the fact that the flop was a rainbow is a HUGE consideration. That rules out a lot of pair+flush draw hands. Now I imagine he might have a hand like 7-6 or something, but a set is definitely more likely here. I actually hope he has a set, because if I hit my hand, it will be totally disguised. I am dreaming of my soon-to-be 39K stack when my straight hits. I call.

Turn is J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Bld fires 1350 into the pot of about 1500. Man, he sure is not letting me draw for cheap. Of course, this would normally be a routine fold. But the implied odds are huge. He must have a set here. Pair+gutshot is looking less and less likely. Again I reiterate that there was no flush draw on the flop. It must be a set. I call.

I can FEEL the 9 or the 4 coming on the river. There it is .... NO - it the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Damn. All I have is 8 high. There is 4200 in the pot. BLD bets 3800.

I check my poker hands rankings card to make sure that a set beats 8 high. It does. Sadly, I move my hand to fold. ... But then it just hits me! What did I play my hand like I am holding? ... Before I answer, consider of course, that Bld still has about 9.5K behind after his river bet. Well, I raised two limpers preflop. There was a bet and a call on the flop - and I raised that! Then I called a third reraise. I followed that with a $1350 call on the turn. ... Why, I must have AA or JJ!! I check my poker hand rankings card again, and it says that AAA and JJJ both beat 777, 555, and 222.

The stack size is PERFECT. The opponent is perfect. As strong as he is, I believe Bld can absolutely fold a set if he thinks he is beaten here (one of a very very few players that I'd try that against - especially with such an aggressive player as myself).

My clock ticks down. I time out on my other tables. I think about whether or not I should pull the trigger on this one. Cojones is not the issue: if I feel it is plus EV, I will make the move. I think about showing this hand after he folds and try to envision the folk songs that will be written about me and this hand. I think about how I will come across on ESPN's "The Best Hand I Ever Played"

Tick, tick, tick, 5, 4, 3, ... you guys pull the trigger or not?

P.S.: Bld, do you remember this hand? Don't say anything until we get some responses if you do. But I am curious if you remember it. It must be about 6 weeks old.

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

http://lcweb2.loc.gov/natlib/afc2001...ph0002001r.jpg

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

if im bld, JJJ is incredibly unlikely for u... and so is the fact that you'd time that low with aaa

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

Aren't you more likely to have 34 here than AA?

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

sam,

I love your posts. I hope you pulled the trigger!

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

strassa, that (the amount of time that I took to decide) was a HUGE factor tilting my decision towards a fold. I haven't said that I folded, but I can say that if I had made my decision within 10-15 seconds, I move all-in for sure. The time I took evened out the decision for me.

Can you expand on why JJJ is so unlikely? He would not expect me to be so loose on the flop?

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Aren't you more likely to have 34 here than AA?

[/ QUOTE ]
I was wondering the same thing.

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

Once you take all that time to act, I'd fold it. If you had a strong hand you probably would have acted sooner, right? Also, I think 43s or AA makes more sense for you than JJ here.

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

Hehe you guys are hitting on another point that I kind of intentionally neglected to mention. What about HIM having 3-4?

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

This hand is very interesting I think but I am confused as to how one can have a pair and a gutshot on a 752 board.

citanul

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

sam,

If villian has a set, and you think your hand looks just like AA, is there any chance he would not make such a big bet on the river?

This actually has me thinking about the possibility that HE is bluffing with 86 or 64...

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

Haha good catch citanul. In actuality, I really did not consider much other than a set for him. And it didn't matter that much becase my 8 high doesn't have any showdown value no matter what he has.

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

I don't think he would really put me on AAA until and unless I pull the trigger. Too many other hands I can have (two pair, straight draw, KK, etc)

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

Sam, do you think Bld would bet this river with 22 or 55?

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he would really put me on AAA until and unless I pull the trigger. Too many other hands I can have (two pair, straight draw, KK, etc)

[/ QUOTE ]

even for someone as LAG as you, its pretty hard to make 2 pair on that board. As far as KK, seems like he would bet a little less on the river if he was trying to entice a call. I guess he can have you on 22 or 55 though if he has 77.

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

absolutely. Bld is not the type to leave value on the table. He could fold that to a raise though if he can be convinced that I have 77, JJ, AA, or 3-4.

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

he would expect u to raise turn a huge amt of the time with jj and these stacks.

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

A very good point Jason. The stack sizes were deep enough there (and two to a backdoor flush in addition to the straight draw had arrived). I will often slowplay JJJ on the turn in a situation like this, but the stacks were too deep for that here.

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

well I had 8-6. Could I not have 7-5?

And I don't think Bld's style is to make smaller milking bets. He keeps his bet sizes pretty standard which make them harder to read.

I do the same thing. You will hardly ever see me bet less than 2/3 of the pot or more than 4/5 (usually 3/4) no matter what I am betting.

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

Strassa, if you hold 77 in Bld's spot and I push, do you make the call? What if you have 22? (you can answer in both cases: a quick push and using my whole time bank).

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

in your general thought process, you are disregarding the option that bld has nothing here. when you are talking about implied odds and stuff, especially.

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hehe you guys are hitting on another point that I kind of intentionally neglected to mention. What about HIM having 3-4?

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't he more likely to have a set than 43s(or 64s, 86s)? He's very aggro so I'd expect he's more likely to raise those and overlimp the small pairs.

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

While that is a salient point, I was convinced by the turn that he had a real hand. I was about 70% sure that he had a set. Would you not be more or less convinced of that by his play to that point?

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

Hmm I don't know about that Jeff. I think Bld is MORE likely to raise a pair against a limper and limp with 3-4 or 86.

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

I voted no for the aforemention lack of time. I think you're moving AAA much quicker than you did. (or did not.)

Either way, while I realize that Bld is capable of laying down sets if he thinks they're beat I wonder how often he's going to lay down 55 or 77 in this situation. You're betting $9,000 into an $8,000 pot so wouldn't he have to fold slightly more than one time out of two to make this play profitable?

I don't know if he lays down 77 that often given the action.

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

sam,

I must commend you for taking the time and effort that obviously goes into making your posts. I hope you know that the insight that you so selflessly give out does not go unappreciated. Thanks for making these forums a better place.

-radiaL

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

appreciate that radial!

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

what is bld's limping range? does he even have a limping range? is he capable of playing JJ or AA like this? something smells weird with his turn AND river bets - what does he expect you to call with?

i think bld is an opponent very capable of limping to rep a low pocket pair and playing a flop like this EXACTLY like he has a set. that, combined with the strange turn/river aggression makes me feel like this should be a push, without the timing tell

this is such a crazy hand

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

I say pull the trigger for % of telling a SICK hand story.

however, I just can't justify trying to represent overset to bluff out what appears as an underset. I just never met anyone who folds them.

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

Like I said, there are very few players that I would try this again. However, Bld is one who CAN fold an underset IF he thinks he is beaten.

The problems are:

(1) will he be convinced that a set is no good if I push

(2) might he have 3-4?

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

i think

1. the fact that you took so long on the river. maybe you do w/AA cause of the possible straight, but who knows.

2. possibility of 34

3. he is still getting like 2:1 odds....


make this a no go

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

Deep Stack poker = great.

I push: that's just an unbelievable play and read, but given that deep of stacks, I honestly can't imagine him calling with 555 or 222; I highly doubt he has 34, if he does, and he made that huge turn bet with it, tip your hat to him. I think he might call with 777, but seriously- why would you want to play a pot this big unless you had the goods?

Yes, it looks like you have AAA or 34, and maybe even JJJ. Honestly, I think on that river push, you have the straight, three jacks, or three aces about 80ish% of the time.

Air the other 20ish%, he almost certainly can't beat anything you can value bet, only air.

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

I pull the trigger so I can post this and find out if I made Bld a set.

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

how do you play AA on the turn?

what hands does he normally limp call with? Stacks are very deep, have you considered that he could have AA?

How often does he have nothing?

What hand does he expect you to call with on the river?

I lean towards folding.

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

You think he would over limp and then call to close the action in a three way pot with AA. I don't buy it KKF.

I would be pretty worried about 34 from bld, or him not folding a smaller set especially with the time you took.

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

I'd call and hope he shows 64, then it'd really be the best hand ever, if not oh well its just 3 buyins right?

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

Nice post Sam.

You say you guys have logged a lot of hours togather, so he knows how you play your big pairs pretty well. Do you never fold AA to him on the turn? I think he's gonna have a hard time putting you on AA here.

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

why would he bet the river for 3800?

he doesn't expect you to call with kk, QQ does he?

and certainly you aren't calling his flop bet raise with overcards right?

Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I\'ve ever had!
 

Was $65 a standard bet for you here? When you bet $65 pre and had your hand shown down what was the strength of the hand in previous hands that Bld might have seen. Thing is this, AAA is out of the question because of how long you took. I think he can put you on JJJ here but what percent of the time will he do so and how often does he fold a set? If he flopped a set he played it extremely quickly. Wouldn't be surprised if he had air here.