Call 3 bets with this draw?
 

PokerRoom 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, Hero ???

Three cards make the nut straight and 9 cards make a J high flush. The pot odds right now are 5.25-1 with several players still to act. It will end up somewhere between 4.4-1 (folded to CO, who caps) and 7.9-1 (everyone else, including CO, calls).

This appears to be callable, however:
1. There appears to be a straight already so that's (at least) one of your outs dead.
2. If the nut straight (J9) is out there, the remaining 2 outs (at best) give you half the pot.
3. A stronger flush draw is not getting out of the way in this pot.

So is a call here good value, or just wishful thinking?

Re: Call 3 bets with this draw?
 

Hm. I think MP3 has a flush draw, which probably means it's higher than yours. CO or button smell like a slowplayed set, which means the T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is dead. Edit: oh hell, missed MP3's pfr, so forget this crap.

Miller's Mantra states that the only time you should be folding a flush draw is if the board is double paired and you're facing multiple bets cold, but when we're facing 3 here (and probably a cap), and how much it looks like MP3 was pumping a flush draw of his own...this rather sucks dude.

I think folding, calling and capping are all wrong, so my advice is to leave the table right now so you don't have to do any of them.

Re: Call 3 bets with this draw?
 

I would c/r this flop 3 outs to the nuts, and the flush draw.

I'm folding this turn, there's a straight possibility out there so that discounts some of your outs to the 9, higher flush draw, and potential chance of a full house on river...I don't know about the odds but my general feeling would be to fold.

Re: Call 3 bets with this draw?
 

The flop is a *must* checkraise. You have a monster of a draw, and you are in a great place to trap the field for lots of bets. Check-calling is tremendously weak.

The turn is a rubbish card, since it devalues your SD. If everyone came along, you could still cap for value, with an equity of about 20%, but capping will likely knock out others. You have the odds to call, without even factoring in what you'll earn on the river when your draw hits.

The thing that sucks most is that it looks like you could have picked a fight on the flop with multiple opponents, which would have been amazing fun with such huge equity.

Re: Call 3 bets with this draw?
 

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I think folding, calling and capping are all wrong, so my advice is to leave the table right now so you don't have to do any of them.

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Standard.

Re: Call 3 bets with this draw?
 

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Three cards make the nut straight

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No, they don't.

You're effed, likely playing for at best a split, at worst a loss to MP3 chasing a gutshot with QJ (which IS the nut straight when the non-spade 9 falls).

Pack up your tent and go home. You could have c/r'd the flop, but it wouldn't have made any difference, just made it a more expensive and therefore harder fold on the turn.

Re: Call 3 bets with this draw?
 

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Three cards make the nut straight

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No, they don't.



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Glad you noticed my deliberate mistake [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I was living on the wrong street for a while there...

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
MP1 has 9h Ad (straight, ten high).
MP3 doesn't show. (said he had JJ and cursed)
CO has 5s 9s (straight, ten high).
Button has 9c Qh (straight, ten high).
Outcome: MP1 wins 9.41 BB. CO wins 9.41 BB. Button wins 9.41 BB.

UTG+1 folded on the turn.
</font>

So in reality the straight was just a dream, but the flush draw was good. Obviously I like the call with all the information, but I'm favouring a fold with the partial information and now that I have more than 30 seconds to think about it. Even if you figure one of the two draws is good, if it goes wild on the river how many bets can you throw out if neither is the nuts?

Re: Call 3 bets with this draw?
 

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You could have c/r'd the flop, but it wouldn't have made any difference, just made it a more expensive and therefore harder fold on the turn.

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It wouldn't have made any difference this time, but not getting more money in on this flop is criminal. I don't care if this time our gutshot was only a pipe-dream: that's just results based thinking. If the hand was posted with action cutoff on the flop when it's one bet to OP, would we really suggest that he just call?

On the turn, we have a flush draw plus a weak 1-card gutshot in an absolutely huge pot. It's an unpaired board, and there's lots of multiway action. I think that folding this turn is playing pretty scared. About 20% of what stands to be a mammoth pot is ours, but we're unwilling to put in a few BB to get at it?

Re: Call 3 bets with this draw?
 

u must bet/raise/re-raise/cap/doublecap this flop!!!! Ur edge here against 6 opps is bigger than grand canyon. Also call the turn. No reason to suspect a better flush-draw yet. A flush draw would obviously have raised the flop...

Re: Call 3 bets with this draw?
 

I would have preferred to bet the flop, with the possibility of 3-betting if there are enough callers.

I would also have called the turn, although the decision looks close.

Flushes can win big pots, and flush over flush is not that common.

Re: Call 3 bets with this draw?
 

my advice... disconnect-protect

Re: Call 3 bets with this draw?
 

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...the flush draw was good.

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Bigger problem: when the action is to you it's 3 bets in a 15-bet pot. With this action, I think you have to discount both straight and flush outs, and I don't think you have enough to call.

Re: Call 3 bets with this draw?
 

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It wouldn't have made any difference this time, but not getting more money in on this flop is criminal. I don't care if this time our gutshot was only a pipe-dream: that's just results based thinking. If the hand was posted with action cutoff on the flop when it's one bet to OP, would we really suggest that he just call?

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Andy, you've got a bettor and two callers with two left to act behind. If you raise, and the two behind you fold and everybody in front calls that's +3SB. Then you hit one of your hands on the turn and everybody checks to you and only calls your bet, yada yada. otoh, Hero smooth-calls the flop and both players behind him call that's +2SB, so you're only giving up 1SB on the flop, but now you've still got 5 opponents when your draw hits. You're not winning UI, and your TP outs are severely impaired by the straight possibilities they put on the board, so forcing anybody out of this pot is what would be criminal.

Future bets, m'boy, future bets!

Re: Call 3 bets with this draw?
 

Seems like you're choosing the worst case scenario for a raise situation. On the flop, we have about 45% equity. I reckon that we should find a line that jams this pot full of money on the flop: mostly theirs.

If we raise and the two yet to act fold, then that's poker. They were unlikely to give us much money in that case anyway. If they coldcall and come along for the ride, then I'm on Cloud 9. People coldcall all the time with weak draws and idiot hands. Even *if* they fold, our raise is still easily for value. I am of the opinion that we ought to take a shot at building a big pot.

Sometimes we'll have 3 opponents and a nice pot. A lot of the time we will have 4 opponents and a bloated pot. Every so often we will have 5 and a Marlon Brando sized pot. I don't think we should forgo that opportunity by playing the flop passively.

Re: Call 3 bets with this draw?
 

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I think folding, calling and capping are all wrong, so my advice is to leave the table right now so you don't have to do any of them.

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Nice!

Brian

Re: Call 3 bets with this draw?
 

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Seems like you're choosing the worst case scenario for a raise situation. On the flop, we have about 45% equity.

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Then I guess we're at opposite ends of the spectrum. We are 45% to make a hand IF all 12 of our outs are available. However, the action on the flop is saying that they aren't, and, even if they are you have to discount our equity for the times that we're going to make a hand and be drawn out against anyway since we're not going to be winning UI or by catching TP so we can't cancel them out.

I understand what you're saying, but for my money 5 people putting in 1 small bet each on the flop is better than 3 people putting in 2 (and it would REALLY, REALLY suck to have the two players behind you fold, the original bettor 3-bet, and one or two of the players in the middle fold), as we have the opportunity to hit on the turn and punish 5 people instead of 3 with big bets instead of small.

Interestingly, there was a similar thread a few weeks back where I was the one advocating pushing draws on the flop, and I still think that as a default it's the right course. If I were playing this hand while 4-tabling I'd probably raise this up. In a case like this, however, with time to think about it, I think it's MORE right to wait and see what happens, and give the players behind us a chance to stay in.

Re: Call 3 bets with this draw?
 

Fair enough. I think that I prefer the risk of knocking guys out if it can often give us a shot at a huge pot. Good discussion of it anyhow. Cheers.

Andy

Re: Call 3 bets with this draw?
 

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Fair enough. I think that I prefer the risk of knocking guys out if it can often give us a shot at a huge pot. Good discussion of it anyhow. Cheers.

Andy

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I agree. The problem in this case is that knocking players out doesn't IMPROVE our chances of taking down this large pot.

Re: Call 3 bets with this draw?
 

Would someone please explain why calling a raise with J8s from BB is a good play. Wouldn't this be an automatic fold?

Re: Call 3 bets with this draw?
 

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Would someone please explain why calling a raise with J8s from BB is a good play. Wouldn't this be an automatic fold?

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Hero is gettin 9:1 now and likely 11:1 on his call. This is an easy call.