three river call/fold decisions
 

OK, popping back in and gonna post a couple hands. I would appreciate if no one asked or commented about my winnings, win-rate, or anything of the sort. All three hands are Party 6-max 10-20.

Hand #1:

Opponent in question has 2800 and I cover. My image is the usual. Opponent (I think his name is jman-something or other) is reasonable, but seems a bit frustrated with my repeated raising. Normal preflop raising standards. He opens for 80 in second or third position. I call from button with 10-8 offsuit (spade and club).

Flop is 8d-4d-2d. He bets 150 into a pot of 190. I call.

Turn is 9s. He checks. You guys advocate betting or checking here on the turn? ... I think my hand is best but needs protecting. I bet 400 into a pot of 490. He check-raises all-in for about 2100 more. Call or fold? What hand do you put him on and why?
********************************************
Hand #2:

Opponent in question is Jackal. Very very aggressive, but also good. Capable of big bluffs. We both have large stacks of over 6.5K in this hand. I open UTG for 56 with Qh-Th. He reraises to 225 from one of the blinds. I call.

Flop 10-8-3, two spades. He bets 450 into pot of 560. I call. Turn 10 of spades. He bets 1100 into pot of 1460. I call.

River is an offsuit 4. He bets 2800 into a pot of 3660. Keep in mind that this is a very aggressive opponent. What should I do?

*******************************************
Hand #3:

Opponent in question is Robinson: very very tight player, and not prone to overplay hands too much. He has about 3K. I have been having a great session and have run my stack up to 27K. I mention that because I suspect I am in the players' heads. That may or may not make a difference in the decision.

Opponent raises to 70 UTG. I have seen him only limp with 99 and AJ suited before entering pots. Therefore, I am nearly certain that he has no worse than pocket tens or AQ. Tens and AQ may also be limping hands for him but jacks and up or AK are likely raising hands in my assessment. I call from BB with QQ.

Flop is T-8-8. I check, he bets 150 which is the full pot. Now I know he does not have AK or AQ (I sincerely doubt he would make a continuation bet on a miss). I call (probably a mistake, because his hand range is now probably TT-AA of which I am only beating jacks). Turn is a queen. I check (sometimes I bet here, sometimes I check) and he checks back. I think he would bet aces for sure here. kings I am not sure, jacks probably not, and tens - I am not sure if he would slowplay or not.

River is a king. I lead for about 400 into pot of 450. He raises all-in for about 2400 more. Is this a no-brainer call?

Results sometime later.

Cheers,
samoleus

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

Hand 1: easy fold.

Hand 2: edited: Call with a flush on board.

Hand 3: Call

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

In hand 1, I assume that you float monotone flops fairly often. So I don't like betting the turn unless you're happy calling a CR.

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

you shouldnt bet the turn in hand 1 if you arent calling a raise, you are setting yourself up to be raised here way too often to not know what to do.

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

Misread hand #s 2 and 3.Please use the instant graemlins. Hand 1 looks like a clear fold.

Hand 2 is probably the toughest hand of all. I CALL.

Hand 3 looks like a fold, as NITTY as it may seem.

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

Your image is the usual...meaning LAG?

Hand 1 I like the turn bet, can't see calling the AI though.

Hand 2 I would just call down and hope he vastly overplayed an overpair or has air.

Hand 3 I can't see folding ever.

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

Guys, before instinctively answering and giving the seemingly obvious advice to fold hand 1 and call or raise hands 2 or 3, think about what the opponents might have. I posted these hands specifically because I thought that they are deeper and more complex than most.

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

Sam,
You can use these [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] to make your posts easier to read and add some color to them.

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

I am not saying that the obvious decisions are NOT the correct decisions, but I was hoping to get a little bit more detailed discussion about why those decisions are correct (if they are).

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

ty kkf - how do I do use them?

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

1. fold
2. call
3. call

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

Sam,

Whenever you make a tough fold, like hands 2/3, its going to be based heavily on your read. We are giving you textbook answers because all we have to go on is the info you have provided.

Hand 3: If he checks behind KK on turn, then he can also check behind AA or TT right? I think this is a very easy call. He could also easily have AK here.

Hand 2: You said he bluffs often and he could also be value betting.

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

[ QUOTE ]
ty kkf - how do I do use them?

[/ QUOTE ]

They are located underneath the textbox.

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

sam,

Although I would agree with what KKF said for most players regarding #1 and #3, there are other considerations that might lead you to believe a different play was in order for certain opponents, and I would play hand #2 differently.

In hand #1, you need to know both how often the opponent would make a desperation move c/r with AK and a flush draw, and also how often he would c/r the turn there with an overpair instead of fearing you were slowplaying him. So the more prone he would be to play AK like that, then the more willing I would be to occasionally call, provided that he isn't also playing an overpair like that.

In hand #2, you have a good hand but certainly not the nuts, and a T with a better kick/set that filled/flush all beat you. So I would often only call, and wouldn't raise, but since the board is both paired and contains a 3 flush and he saw you call the turn, then some consideration has to be given that you are beat and thus indicating a fold. (But I agree with KKF about checking behind in the first place.)

In hand #3, you specify he is very tight and not prone to overplay hands. Thus although I am calling other players, he is the one to consider folding against. He has to put you specifically on an 8 in order to think that he would get action holding TT from any lesser hand, and otherwise I think he would often just try to milk it. So that along with the preflop action makes it more likely for him to have screwed you on the river with KK. And he is the player least likely to ever try to take a worse made hand and make you fold a better one.


Of course being right or wrong in making very close calls and tough laydowns can lead to big swings both positive and negative, and online when multitabling we all tend to make more default decisons. So the most critical component of the read is knowing how an opponent plays/overplays both nut and non-nut hands, and not just bluffs.

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

1. fold . I would deff check behind turn, as I am going to c/r all in on the turn ALOT vs a player such as yourself. I will usually do this with big (made) hands or hands that have alot of outs.

2. call.

3. this is fairly borderline I think vs a tight/nitty opponent, but I ususally find myself not folding sets on boards like this into PFRs. I really think that he would bet AA again on the turn as well as TT (esp against you), but he may get scared with KK and check behind, and may have caught you. So, having time to think about it I would maybe lean towards a fold, but would I fold during the hand? probably not.

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

Sam,

Dont like your reasoning in hand 1 for betting the turn. Sure it would be nice to protect your hand, but at what cost? If your opp is good, this may mean he will check-raise you all in and force you into making bad decisions. If your opponent is v straightforward, I like betting the turn to protect your hand, but more importantly to control showdown. I'd like to bet a little less because I feel like a naked high diamond is likely going to CR a bigger bet but may only call a smaller bet and allow you to get to showdown cheaply, while also increasing your equity in the pot (getting more chips in while ahead). I also like betting the turn because your opponent will define his hand fairly well and usually you wont have a tough time making decisions.

Hand 2. Jackal is a good player and a guy I have played with once live in a ny card room. He's tricky and smart.

One thing he doesn't do, though, as some as much as the other big names in that game (bld, lolo) is aggressively value bet me with marginal hands. He has no problem firing the pot with a bluff or firing the pot with the nuts, but it tends to be either or. He's not easy to play against by any means, but I'm fairly sure he would not play a hand like JJ-AA like this. He would likely check-call/check-fold with that type of hand. I'm pretty sure you are ahead of a few hands he might value bet here (I've seen him get out of line preflop with all sorts of stuff, JT T9 T2 blah blah) but definitely not against the whole range or the bulk of the range. I think you need to decide how often he's bluffing like this, then increase your chances of calling a little more based on the fact that he might rarely be vbetting a worse hand. I think most of the time here I look him up, but I'm not sure if that is correct.

Hand 3

Based on your flop/turn combo, the stength of your hand is pretty well concealed. I don't know this player at all, but I think there still have to be hands that he will value raise here that are worse than yours. It's so unlikely you have an 8 here or even QQ based on the action. He might have as worse as AK/AA here with the 8 paired, right? This guy would have to be extremely tight and extremely bad. I dont get away here.

-Jason

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

[ QUOTE ]
Your image is the usual...meaning $6M Worldwide Poker Champion

[/ QUOTE ]
Couldn't resist.

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

Hand#1: an easy fold..it looks like he def trying to protect something like 1010-QQ with a diamond. I think a9 with the ace of diamonds is also a possibility here...he knows ur agressive and doesn't want u to outplay him on the river.

Hand #2: Call. Trips is a monster in a reraised pot even with the flush on board looks like AA with or without a spade but its hard to tell. In additon u are getting 3:1 on your call. I don't think he bluffing here but he def has a big hand and wants action.

Hand #3: Geez sam thats tuff... I think I close my eyes and call...is he the type to bet quad Tens on the flop after raising?...probably not given his tight image. KK is def a possibility but I dont think I can fold the second nut boat for $2400 unless I was playing Omaha.

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your image is the usual...meaning $6M Worldwide Poker Champion

[/ QUOTE ]
Couldn't resist.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

Results of Hand One
 

Guys, thanks for the replies. I especially liked the analysis from Strassa and BluffThis. KKF also made a very good point that the opponent's tendencies and the flow of the game are very important to the decisions.

I called the all-in in hand #1. I'll explain my logic in a bit, but before I do, let me talk briefly about my decision to bet the turn. The general consensus seems to be that I made a mistake because a lot of players will put me in a difficult situation on the turn. While that is true, I will often allow myself to get in these tough and unpleasant situations if I feel it is +EV to do so. In this particular case, before his check-raise on the turn, I felt like it was most likely by his bet flop, check turn line that he had bet on continuation and had now checked the turn to give up. Since I had the pair of eights, I thought I was good, but I did not want to give a free river, since there are so many cards that can poison my hand. I knew that in doing so, I might have to make a huge decision with a marginal hand, but I was willing to do so.

OK, after the check-raise, it is time to put him on a hand. Here was my thought process. He was the preflop raiser and he had pretty decent opening standards. ... Now what hands can he have that beat me?

Flush? I didn't think so. I felt like if he had a big flush, he would undoubtedly want to get value out of it, and he wouldn't blow me off the hand by raising so much. If he had a small flush, he would almost certainly protect his hand with a turn lead. Since I called his flop bet on the monotone flop, he has to be concerned about me having a long big diamond - and I doubt he would check a flush there. So I rule out a flush.

Set or overpair (not including a pair of aces or kings including the diamond version). I think that once again, he would never fail to protect such a hand with a turn lead. And if the very off chance that he might have done so, he is more likely to call my bet than raise all-in. But more importantly, I don't think he risks me checking behind with a strong but vulnerable hand.

What else can he have? A-9 or K-9 with the ace or king of diamonds? Possible, but I don't think he open raises with those hands. But they are within the realm of possibility.

A big pair including the diamond? Well that is possible and scary. But unless it was specifically AA with the Ad, I feel like he would open lead the turn and not go for a check-raise for fear of a check-check where he would have to wonder if a fourth diamond hit the board.

So while it is certainly possible that he had me drawing dead or close to it, none of those scenarios really made a lot of sense to me for the reasons explained.

Now what else could he have? Well the hand that I thought was most likely was the naked Ad. That would be a hand that would not want a call (so would make sense that he would raise so much). That would also be a hand that may well check the turn hoping for a free river. When I make a handsome bet into the turn as I did, he doesn't want to just call. Keep in mind that I mentioned that I had the distinct feeling that he was really frustrated with my repeated raising - especially with me having position on him. He did not want to give up on this hand, and having the nut card, I felt like he would play the bare Ad exactly like that. Now what cards can he have with the ace of diamonds? Certainly he would have another ace or a 9 in which case I am drawing extremely thin. However, I think he makes the same play with another ace or nine as he would with any other card - which includes any non diamond king, queen, jack, or ten. Against those hands, I am better than 3-1 to win.

As I thought about it, the range of hands Ad-x where x is the range of hands described above was what he would be overwhelmingly likely to make this play with. I am in trouble if x is an ace or nine (5 cards - since the nine cannot be a diamond) but am way ahead if x is any of the others (if we say non-diamond king through ten, we have 11 cards).

So as marginal as my hand was I made the call. Fortunately I was correct. He had Ad-10h, leaving him drawing to 12 outs. River is a brick and I take the 4800 pot.

Thoughts on the play/analysis? Again, keep in mind that I do agree that betting the turn opens me up to having to make a tough decision (and I would not bet the turn in this situation against Strassa, BLD, Bluffthis, zeebo, and other players that I consider to be outstanding (and capable of putting me in that spot with a wider range of hands). But this player was both frustrated and a little transparent in the way he wanted value out of his huge hands.

I'd appreciate comments on this analysis - and I'll get to the other hands later.

Re: Results of Hand One
 

I like your thought process but this is a fold. A good player is going to punish you if you make calls like this. That said I have not played with villian so I don't know how good he is, but if I were at the table and saw this play I would defenitly take advantage of you in future hands.

Re: Results of Hand One
 

if he has Ad and the cards you mentioned, then he still has 15 outs.

Re: Results of Hand One
 

yes you are correct (I meant 2-1 when I said 3-1) - but if my hand range assignment is correct, it is still a clear call, no?

Re: Results of Hand One
 

aba20, I do not play the same way against all players. a given opponent's tendencies, moods, my image, etc are all factors in every decision I made.

Re: Results of Hand One
 

[ QUOTE ]
aba20, I do not play the same way against all players. a given opponent's tendencies, moods, my image, etc are all factors in every decision I made.

[/ QUOTE ]

fair enough

Re: Results of Hand One
 

I guess with your read on the player you can call. But I think most players like myself are making that c/r with set/overpair/flush against players like you.

Also would you have most likely done if opponent had bet turn?

Re: Results of Hand One
 

[ QUOTE ]
Flush? I didn't think so. I felt like if he had a big flush, he would undoubtedly want to get value out of it, and he wouldn't blow me off the hand by raising so much.

[/ QUOTE ]

nh and nice post. But you have to realise that opponents are more likely to do this against you or a player like BlD: Maybe this is very player dependent but I wouldn't make a habit of making this call, If I were you.

Re: Results of Hand One
 

[ QUOTE ]
yes you are correct (I meant 2-1 when I said 3-1) - but if my hand range assignment is correct, it is still a clear call, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Its pretty close. I would think he has the ace hi flush draw 65-75% of the time in hand one as played. The other 25-35% of the time you are in very very bad shape.

I wish I could have replied before you posted the results of hand no.1 so I could have been the only one saying you played it correctly.

Re: Results of Hand One
 

leemur I don't think I agree with you. Most players will protect set/overpair/baby flush on a board like that. It's not a situation to go for a check-raise when I can close the action with a return check. I will often check-back with a number of holdings - and then what do you do if a diamond hits?

To answer your question, I would have folded if he bet the turn.

Re: Results of Hand One
 

Bld, it doesn't surprise me that you are on board with me on this one (nor does it surprise me that most players are not). ... I think it is closer to 80-20, but that is nitpicking here.

Re: Results of Hand One
 

Sam,

Do you always try and give percentages of the amount of time a certain player will have a certain hand? I'm just curious how you come up with these numbers. Is it just practice?

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

Hi Sam,

In hand 1, your reasoning for calling the all-in is sound, if your opponent is fairly bad. Good players will know that players who play your style are much more likely to make "big calls" of the sort you made in this hand, since they (LAGs) are used to poor players vastly overplaying their medium hands and trying big bluffs against them. So unless you can really rule out being behind, you are going to be in a spot where you are a 2:1 favorite sometimes, and drawing to 5 outs most of the time. Against a frustrated, mediocre or worse player (who's not a nit), you can pretty much rule out being behind.

Your reasoning for betting the turn is sound, IMO, but given that reasoning, a much smaller bet makes sense. After all, with missed overcards etc., they basically need to feel you're bluffing or worried to raise you. That "almost full pot" bet sends that exact message. You put them in a tougher spot by betting half pot, IMO; it makes an all-in awkwardly large, and plants more fear that their overcards may be no good if they hit.

Also, if the turn goes check-check, and a scary card (to you) hits, this type of opponent's bet size on the river is pretty easy to read, right?

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

[ QUOTE ]
for fear of a check-check where he would have to wonder if a fourth diamond hit the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sam, this is the only part of you're logic i'm not 100% convinced of. You've been running this guy over and he's frustrated. Basically i think he expects you to bet the turn. Even if you had a naked diamond on the turn he might expect you to bet it since he probably considers you a maniac. Because you're so aggressive players might be more likely to take the chance that you won't check behind.

So the guy is frustrated and wants to take a stand. Yes a big diamond is the most likely holding. But i think both an overpair (with or without a diamond), a set, or a small flush are more likely than you're guessing. And even when he does turn up with just the diamond he's 30-40% to win the hand.

I definitely understand you're logic and think it's close but i'm still leaning towards folding this turn.

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

Sam,

Hand 2 was analyzed well by Strassa. Myself, I pretty much always call in these spots, and it seems I usually regret it. Do I regret it more than 2 times out of 3, though? Probably not, but it's close. I guess what you have to ask yourself is, "How likely is it that Jackal thinks I have a T or better after I call the turn?" The higher that number, the better a fold looks, obviously.

Hand 3: I have personally never folded a hand that strong in that situation. How well do you know this guy? Doesn't he think about how others play? With your image, I don't see how you can get away from this. Plus, when a guy has 27K in front, some think they should bet more with their good hands, since "3K won't matter that much to him." This would make AA possible. However, super-nits often don't think about this or anything else, really, besides their vaginas.

Re: Results of Hand One
 

Sam,

Your analysis and decision I think was pretty straight forward. I guess you are saying that your decision to call was one that most don't make, but I think for most people in this game, IF they decide to bet the turn against the standard poor player in this game, they will also be the ones typically making this big call. I have made this call before, obviously.

I also think, though, that a very good player will not be committed to calling this all in once he bets the turn as KKF said. I do think that betting the turn and folding to an all in is acceptable, and in order to counteract good players, you can't be too predictable in terms of hand strength on the turn. The turn is such a key street and so many players play it very predictably and that makes them easier to play against.

-Jason

Re: Results of Hand One
 

I think it really turns on whether you really think he’s ready to snap & how tough you think he is. You can only justify this call if you really think he’s weak and has truly snapped. The gap I see in your logic is your 100% discounting of his having a overpair with or without a diamond or set (tiny % likely) here. I and most other players certainly wouldn’t give a free card here to most other players but against you with your very, very high % tendency to fire at any check on the turn where you've got position on a scary board, in his shoes this is precisely how I would play this board vs you with JJ or better a substantial % of the time knowing your willingness to make some very tricky/borderline calls and it’s a strategy that I’ve used with some success is to mix big semi bluff overbets with overpairs & big hands and letting you make these calls in really, really bad shape. Yes, sometimes I get gutted on sets, flushes and 2 pair here but with this call you are equally in that wretched < 10% to win zone if you are up against an overpair with a diamond here. You may think you know for certain that this opponent won't do this but I don't think you can discount it as completely as you seem to in your logic. Now you know better than most when someone who doesn’t understand your play has snapped and is trying to bluff you out but I don’t think your logic is nearly foolproof enough to justify this call considering how big a dog for this size of bet that you are if you are up against any sort of overpair, especially one that includes a higher diamond.

Re: Results of Hand One
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sam,

Your analysis and decision I think was pretty straight forward. I guess you are saying that your decision to call was one that most don't make, but I think for most people in this game, IF they decide to bet the turn against the standard poor player in this game, they will also be the ones typically making this big call. I have made this call before, obviously.

I also think, though, that a very good player will not be committed to calling this all in once he bets the turn as KKF said. I do think that betting the turn and folding to an all in is acceptable, and in order to counteract good players, you can't be too predictable in terms of hand strength on the turn. The turn is such a key street and so many players play it very predictably and that makes them easier to play against.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Results of Hand One
 

Sam,

Your logic in hand # 1 is acceptable, but I hope you realize that you need to be so DEAD on with your read to even make this a marginal call. With that said there is no way that this can be a profitable call in the long run. I understand that you are making this call dependent on the opponent and situation.

I might not be correct to say this, but I think the main reason you posted this hand was because you won it. I think you lose this hand ALOT more than you actually win it.

Like I said earlier, I have no problem with your analysis other than it has to be 100% correct to make this call even close to being correct.

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

Welcome back Samoleus.

To those replying to Samoleus, you really, really need to understand his play to make a coherent reply, Samoleus is probably the trickiest/laggiest player at the the Party 10/20 and is unequalled at putting people on tilt. Many less expereienced players sitting at the table with him for the first time will not realize his strategy and overplay weak/marginal hands against him. For those who have never played against him, his PT stats are mid 30's/50+ for PFR/VPIP. [ED] at 6max.

Re: three river call/fold decisions
 

KingNeo,

Good post.