Poker Dying out?
 

Coming back to the eternal topic of "Will there always be fish", I just read in one of the poker news sites that there has been a study of the future and progress of poker. Scientists predict that "Projected over the next five years the annual growth rate of poker will drop from 158%, the growth rate from the year 2000 to 2005, to around 18% from 2005 two 2010".
Is it the beginning of the end? Hope not [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

As long as it's growing, I don't care by what %.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

Analysts predict that, at the old growth rate, 11 billion people will be playing by 2009!

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

lol... well I do, as it actually says that it will be 5 times less fish within the next 5 years. Does not sound too good to me.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

hmmm... I have always thought the population of the Earth is no more that 6 billion people now. That means we people will need to work real hard to reach 11 billion by by 2009 and then everyone should start playing poker [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Tell me if I am wrong.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

[ QUOTE ]
hmmm... I have always thought the population of the Earth is no more that 6 billion people now. That means we people will need to work real hard to reach 11 billion by by 2009 and then everyone should start playing poker [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Tell me if I am wrong.

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That's his point, the growth rate HAS to slow down, or there's no one left to become a new player. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

oppss... was a little bit sloow [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Then there is not so much to worry about. Thanks for comforting me on that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

PM me when you need some more comforting [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

its just like any other game, there will always be some people that are better than others. Even if nobody new ever plays starting now, there will still be ppl who aren't good.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

yeah... Hope it´s not gonna be like "Hey, I saw a real newbie plaing today. Can you imagine that?" [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

Hmm. Thnx. I will think abt that. Perhaps some other time though. :P

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

Seems like this topic gets brought up every other week or so. The growth of poker HAD to slow down somewhat as we are a few years past the tipping point now.

IMHO, it will only take another Chris Moneymaker-type story to give it another huge boost. I think that most people don't realize what a gift to poker he was. It wasn't just him being an unknown amateur--it was his aura, for the lack of a better term. He just LOOKS like a regular dude, somebody you would expect to see stocking boxes at WalMart. Plus, he was a Southerner with a noticeable accent. Admit it, we Americans, we tend to think that people with Southern accents are less intelligent. Not true of course, but that's the perception. He was just the perfect guy at the perfect time. The best thing that could happen now is for an African-American or female to win it. Another huge shot in the arm then.

So, poker had to slowdown somewhat, b/c the growth was abnormally brisk due to the intersection of factors that were beyond perfect (Moneymaker+ubiquity of internet+reality TV phenomenon+young people with large amounts of disposable cash+small but ardent player base already in place=explosion).

For me, I will start worrying when rooms here in the US start shrinking or closing. Till then, play on.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

wasn't hachem a moneymaker type story?

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

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wasn't hachem a moneymaker type story?

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Hachem was a PPP, wasn't he? The guy plunked down the $10k to enter the Main Event. He was a chiropractor and then switched to being a financial consultant. Not quite the same "everyman" or "average Joe" appeal as Moneymaker, IMO. Dannenman had more of the average guy appeal in that final, I think, even though he too was a consultant. Clearly a subjective call and room for disagreement here. Just don't think either of them was the gift that CM was.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

Hachem wasn't American though....

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

As a player before the boom, I assure you there will always be plenty of fish if you are a decent player. No worries.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

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Admit it, we Americans, we tend to think that people with Southern accents are less intelligent.

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huh?

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

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Hachem wasn't American though...

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Firstly Hachem wasn't a "financial consultant" when he, he was a pro poker player, even before he won the WSOP. He bought a buy-in to a prelim event (1,500 NLH R+A iirc) and came 10th, then decided to buy in to the ME. You're right, he wasn't American, he was Lebanese born Australian and has really helped the growth of the game down here in Australia.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

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Admit it, we Americans, we tend to think that people with Southern accents are less intelligent.

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huh?

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Yeah, living here in the Northeast my whole life, I think that is clearly the perception. Perception, now--not the actual truth. I am not trying to start a Civil War here. I don't think this kind of thinking is relegated only to the NE, either. It played a part in the way the public and media regarded CM, IMHO.

Edit: I should have been more clear in my original sentence, it is a little poorly written. Obviously, people from the South probably do not think this way or at least are much less likely to think this way.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

there are donks starting college every august with nothing to do and extra cash

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

Poker doesn't need to keep growing for there to be fish. Old people die and are replaced by young people with their first credit card. The majority of the population will not and are not capable of learning how to play profitable poker. While disposable incomes are kept high fish will swim. The biggest threat to poker would be an economic meltdown in the Western world.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

I think Party BJ has killed a fair number of fish.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

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hmmm... I have always thought the population of the Earth is no more that 6 billion people now. That means we people will need to work real hard to reach 11 billion by by 2009 and then everyone should start playing poker [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Tell me if I am wrong.

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That's his point, the growth rate HAS to slow down, or there's no one left to become a new player. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

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I disagree with this. I think the Asian markets really haven't been tapped yet. The better question is whether bots and "teams" will kill the online games before the next wave of people get into it.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

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I disagree with this. I think the Asian markets really haven't been tapped yet.

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People always say this but it is not something that is going to have a big impact. Asian consumers don't have nearly the same disposable income that people in the US do.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

You obviously have never been to Japan.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

the US GDP per capita is 30% higher than japans. japan is also one third the size of the US, and out of all the asian countries japan is one people would count on. don't be waiting for that shoe to drop.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

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I disagree with this. I think the Asian markets really haven't been tapped yet.

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People always say this but it is not something that is going to have a big impact. Asian consumers don't have nearly the same disposable income that people in the US do.

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But there are a jillion of them. Significant online poker penetration into China might be a ways off (or a pipe dream), but if it happens.... mmm, boy. See also American land-based casinos' efforts in Macau.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

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I disagree with this. I think the Asian markets really haven't been tapped yet.

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People always say this but it is not something that is going to have a big impact. Asian consumers don't have nearly the same disposable income that people in the US do.

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http://www.methodshop.com/tech/artic...tions/cold.jpg

Check and mate, friend.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

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I disagree with this. I think the Asian markets really haven't been tapped yet.

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People always say this but it is not something that is going to have a big impact. Asian consumers don't have nearly the same disposable income that people in the US do.

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Well, gambling revenues in Macau recently surpassed those in Vegas (!), and China's middle class is growing very rapidly.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

You guys realize the huge basic barriers to this happening, first off, like how way more american homes have internet access than asian homes, right? The internet in China is [censored] censored for chrissakes.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

IMO people that are winning big events such as WPT or WSOP just need to proclaim "Yeah I basically learned everything from online poker. It wasnt long ago I was just playing $2/4 hold'em and now I am a tournament champion! Anyone can win!"

This get lucky mentality is the only way we will get more fish into the sea.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

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I think the Asian markets really haven't been tapped yet

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you've apparently never been to the commerce, bike or any other los angeles casino that is usually populated with 75% asians

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

I think it will be going down....

poker will be still popular and people are gonna playing the game...

but not like today's

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

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I think the Asian markets really haven't been tapped yet

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you've apparently never been to the commerce, bike or any other los angeles casino that is usually populated with 75% asians

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awesome.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

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You guys realize the huge basic barriers to this happening, first off, like how way more american homes have internet access than asian homes, right? The internet in China is [censored] censored for chrissakes.

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Unlike the internet here? [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

Just a few points on the subject.

Of course the rate of growth in the poker industry has to decline after some point. Like one poster said, if it continued at the old rate, everyone in the world would be playing poker (and would be two people). Say that there are 100 million players on internet poker now. An increase of 150% will mean 150 million more. An increase after that of only 60% will still be 150 million more people. Even at the projected rate, a good chunk of the world will be playing.

The growth rate will still be positive. There will still be fish coming in, just not at the same rate as at a point before. Think of it like a positive first order derivative, but negative second order. An analogy would be a car accelerating. A Ferrari goes from 0-60 in 3.5s. But goes from 60-120 in another 4.0s, and 120-180 in 5.5s. It's still increasing in speed, just not at the same rate.

I believe that as China and India become more industrialized and technologized, that some of the 2.4 billion people there will be gaining internet access at an alarming rate. These people love to gamble, as anyone can see by visiting a casino (I don't mean this in any deragatory sense). We should experience another boom in internet poker when the internet becomes more proficient in that area of the world, and we will then again see an increase in the rate of growth.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

Even if the growth stopped completely I would have no problem with it. The online poker market is plenty big as is.

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

All I read was the OP, but when was one time "the experts" were right?

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

The uber soft games have been shrinking but the games can't get worse than about 2000. Back then Paradise had some real tight games above .5/1 and the other sites are getting there slowly but surely.....

Re: Poker Dying out?
 

So, scientists predict that poker more than doubles in the next 5 years. The end is near.