Analysis of a downswing
 

So, as many of you know, I went busto. I went there pretty hard. Seeing as (hopefully) I will be unbusto very soon, I have been looking through PT and identifying what factors contributed to me losing what ended up amounting to 28 buyins in total for 25nl--although not all were lost at 25nl.

I am going to group the two biggest problems (within my control)together that ravaged my bankroll. Hopefully this will help some of you identify some of your problems and help us all get better.

TWO ISSUES: Tilt and a Top Pair Problem

As in any downswing, I got sucked out on for my stack more than a couple times. Sometimes, I got sucked out on more than once in a session. Now, I prided myself on keeping composure and not tilting. I never did things like pushing All-In preflop with garbage, or calling raises with trash hands.

I did find, however, that after losing a big pot... I overvalued marginal hands. This was most important part of getting better and understanding why I lost money.

A typical progression was as follows:
Following my standard guidelines for play, I raise a good hand, flop a good hand/draw, and lose my stack in what would be considered an acceptable way.
Then, I pick up a top pair type hand. After flopping the top pair, I became FAR, FAR too willing to go to the felt with it.

caveat- When someone raises your top pair on the turn, it's not good

This became a subtle form of tilt. It isn't as though I simply played bad cards or made outrageous bets. I didn't. I made marginal to poor calls with marginal to poor made hands on the flop and turn.

Another Problem: I never thought it could happen to me.

As soon as you think your bankroll is completely safe, think again. As soon as you think you're a consistent winning player, think again. It's been said here many times that humility is the key to successful poker, and it's true. Playing online casually is roughly the same as playing online badly, in my opinion.

Be Careful moving up limits!!
I followed Fimbulwinter's guidelines for moving up, and tried 50NL both times I reached 500 dollars. Both times it was a mistake. I moved up, lost my stack with undersets twice and got outflushed once. This decimated both my roll and my confidence. Simply put, if your bankroll can't stand getting unlucky for as many as four buyins, you shouldn't play at that limit. Maybe its just my style, but I think moving up to 50NL shouldn't really take place until you have between 750 and 1000 in your roll.

A few notes on preflop looseness:
I played a lot of hands... definitely too many for full ring. Switching to 6-max was a great idea, I just wish I would've had more of a roll when I did. The truth is, marginal holdings and LAGish play at Small Stakes Full Ring is a losing preposition. It can be done, I am sure, but it would be damn, damn, damn difficult. My FR VPIP was around 28, my pfr at about 13. Those numbers are simply bad for full ring.

This next comment is something I'd really like some discussion on:
The key to solving the problem of being too loose is to emphasize position. Somebody once posted on here that folding AQ UTG in 6-max wouldn't really be leaving much money on the table, if any. I think they're right (I still raise AQ UTG 6max, but I certainly think twice about AJ now., and, after all... AQ is just a trumped up AJ [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] )
So, I plan on tightening up SIGNIFICANTLY utg... and continuing to play my loose, raising style from LP.

This forum has helped me become far, far better than I was when I started, and I'm definitely still getting better. There's a long way to go. Hopefully I'll be back at the table soon.

BTW, if anybody has a link to that thread, "Sooner or later you'll run worse than you ever thought was possible", I'd appreciate if you posted it. That thread sums up a lot of the way I felt about the last few months of poker.

Variance is a bitch, but if you look closely enough, you'll see that we make bad plays all the time. Identifying the things you do poorly is the key to making yourself a better player. Hopefully I'm on the way.

Sorry this was so long.

PS: this is what a part of the alphabet would look like if Q and R were removed.

PPS: If anybody has questions about the types of hands I ran into... i posted a lot of the ones that I felt might've been unavoidable situations. I didn't post that many of the ones where I horribly overvalued my hand, because I generally knew what I did wrong. If this will help you guys learn, I can post these too.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

Great post.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?
Cat=&Board=singletable&Number=1825403& fpart=1&PHPSESSID=

This is a link to Gigabet's post which is in response to Irieguys sng, you'll run bad post. Hope that is what you are looking for.

I would also love to discuss some EP standards, but I have mostly questions and few answers so I'll wait for someone else to comment.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

[ QUOTE ]
I never did things like pushing All-In preflop with garbage, or calling raises with trash hands.

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This is my problem when I tilt, I go on wild super monkey tilt [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

NH Baluga.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

Very good post, and very good insight. I cannot comment on your poker skills, but your certainly have the proper mindset to become a good poker player. I wish you good luck on becoming unBUSTO.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

Great post - I can identify those two traits in myself as well. I get a sick feeling in my stomach when I get stacked, and then a simultaneous "I have to get it back" desperation feeling, which led to me playing AQ/AK/ppairs much more aggressively than I normally would. I also suffered from the "my broll is so high I can't lose it" mentality.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

Very very good post. Everything you say is absolutely dead on. Nothing meaningful I can add.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

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Very very good post. Everything you say is absolutely dead on. Nothing meaningful I can add.

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Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

nh Baluga - good stuff. Hopefully you don't go busto again...

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Be Careful moving up limits!!
I followed Fimbulwinter's guidelines for moving up, and tried 50NL both times I reached 500 dollars. Both times it was a mistake. I moved up, lost my stack with undersets twice and got outflushed once. This decimated both my roll and my confidence. Simply put, if your bankroll can't stand getting unlucky for as many as four buyins, you shouldn't play at that limit. Maybe its just my style, but I think moving up to 50NL shouldn't really take place until you have between 750 and 1000 in your roll.

[/ QUOTE ]

BR requirements are different for everyone and are rally about how comfortable you are - and how good a player you are. Most people (me included) overrate their playing skills especially if they are running hot. You are not as good as you think you are.

I play $50NL and my roll is hovering around $500 - some days it dips to $300 - some days it zooms to $600. I am getting frustrated a lot of the time because I can't seem to make headway - instead of grinding out a slow steady br increase I am instead going up and down - up and down - it's infuriating that I am basically playing break even poker right now, but after every losing session I look over my plays in PT and if I made a good decision I am happy. If I made a bad one (just yesterday I stacked myself with TPTK and I know very well that I shoudn't be going to the felt for a whole stack wth TPTK EVER - barring a great read) I can at least recognise what I've done and try not to repeat these mistakes in the future.

In short yes I agree completely be careful about moving up in limits. Hopefully soon I will have a large enough roll for me ($700) to take a 2-buyin shot at $100NL - I fully accept that I might well run bad - get outluckboxed and lose my $200 in short order if this happens I move straight back down to $50NL and rebuild again - rinse and repeat. If after failing at this a couple of times then I will regroup build myself a $1k roll and move up for a little longer, more news as it happens.

I don't recommend anyone else tries this unless you aren't going to be playing scared at the higher limit and you also have the discipline to move down if it all goes horribly wrong. I'd also point out that I am very calm and collected most of the time and I don't tilt very easily, I know from experience that I can get all of my money in the middle with a 99% chance of winning and sometimes that 1 outter will hit - if it does there's little I can do - but I will try to keep getting my money in the middle whenever I think I have a big enough edge, let the cards fall as they choose - and in the long run I will win.

the oft quoted 20-buyins br rule is a good starting point. Depending on your style of play - where you play - how well you are running - and whether you can afford to go BUSTO or not will affect this.

The biggest overriding law of gambling I think is this.

DO NOT GAMBLE MONEY THAT YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE

For bankrolls more is always better - but I don't think you HAVE to have 20buyins or more necessarily to move up.

BR requirements are mostly about personal comfort - if you can handle the consequences of losing a hefty chunk of your roll in one hand then by all means go for it - but unless you are comfortable playing at a higher level (scared money is already dead) then don't move up until you are comfortable, and if that means you need 100buyins in your roll then wait till you get that far before you take the step up.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

matrix-
I agree that buyin prerequisites do vary by the player. And you're totally right when you say that more is NEVER a problem.

However, about 15 hands into my first go-round at 50NL, I had rebought in for about 25, and I had my stack up to nearly 100. I picked up 66, flop came down JT6... I got it all in vs. two opponents (one had TT and the other had KK and spiked a K on the river). The pot was about 260 bucks... far, far, far larger than anything I'd ever dealt with at 25NL. To have that happen was something I was totally unprepared for.

In short, it really sucked.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

[ QUOTE ]
nh Baluga - good stuff. Hopefully you don't go busto again...

[ QUOTE ]

Be Careful moving up limits!!
I followed Fimbulwinter's guidelines for moving up, and tried 50NL both times I reached 500 dollars. Both times it was a mistake. I moved up, lost my stack with undersets twice and got outflushed once. This decimated both my roll and my confidence. Simply put, if your bankroll can't stand getting unlucky for as many as four buyins, you shouldn't play at that limit. Maybe its just my style, but I think moving up to 50NL shouldn't really take place until you have between 750 and 1000 in your roll.

[/ QUOTE ]

BR requirements are different for everyone and are rally about how comfortable you are - and how good a player you are. Most people (me included) overrate their playing skills especially if they are running hot. You are not as good as you think you are.

I play $50NL and my roll is hovering around $500 - some days it dips to $300 - some days it zooms to $600. I am getting frustrated a lot of the time because I can't seem to make headway - instead of grinding out a slow steady br increase I am instead going up and down - up and down - it's infuriating that I am basically playing break even poker right now, but after every losing session I look over my plays in PT and if I made a good decision I am happy. If I made a bad one (just yesterday I stacked myself with TPTK and I know very well that I shoudn't be going to the felt for a whole stack wth TPTK EVER - barring a great read) I can at least recognise what I've done and try not to repeat these mistakes in the future.

In short yes I agree completely be careful about moving up in limits. Hopefully soon I will have a large enough roll for me ($700) to take a 2-buyin shot at $100NL - I fully accept that I might well run bad - get outluckboxed and lose my $200 in short order if this happens I move straight back down to $50NL and rebuild again - rinse and repeat. If after failing at this a couple of times then I will regroup build myself a $1k roll and move up for a little longer, more news as it happens.

I don't recommend anyone else tries this unless you aren't going to be playing scared at the higher limit and you also have the discipline to move down if it all goes horribly wrong. I'd also point out that I am very calm and collected most of the time and I don't tilt very easily, I know from experience that I can get all of my money in the middle with a 99% chance of winning and sometimes that 1 outter will hit - if it does there's little I can do - but I will try to keep getting my money in the middle whenever I think I have a big enough edge, let the cards fall as they choose - and in the long run I will win.

the oft quoted 20-buyins br rule is a good starting point. Depending on your style of play - where you play - how well you are running - and whether you can afford to go BUSTO or not will affect this.

The biggest overriding law of gambling I think is this.

DO NOT GAMBLE MONEY THAT YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE

For bankrolls more is always better - but I don't think you HAVE to have 20buyins or more necessarily to move up.

BR requirements are mostly about personal comfort - if you can handle the consequences of losing a hefty chunk of your roll in one hand then by all means go for it - but unless you are comfortable playing at a higher level (scared money is already dead) then don't move up until you are comfortable, and if that means you need 100buyins in your roll then wait till you get that far before you take the step up.

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All good points.

One thing I'd like to point out is that the 20 buy-in roll becomes alot more important the further you get from say $100nl. If you're a $10nl player, losing your roll is not that big of a deal because you just work a few hours at your normal job and reload. Not so, if you're playing say $1000nl.

Also, as you move up the games become tougher and more aggressive and thus swings become bigger (magnify this by 2-3x if you're playing a lot of shorthanded) and 10xbuy-in swings become FAIRLY COMMON.

When I first started out I didn't pratice any form of bankroll management and I went BUSTO. No big deal, I realoaded some more and got back into my $10NL game. Eventually I ran well and moved up, only after going nearly BUSTO a few times (and moving down several stakes) did I realize the importance of having enough buy-ins for a certain level. It sucks to have to move down from a limit where you know you're a winner just because of a few beats. Rather grind out a little more at a lower level and catch on at the new level.

But, all-in-all. The easiest way to move up quickly is to take some gambling shots at a higher level, run well, and stay there until you get comfortable and properly rolled. Rinse and repeat.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

BalugaWhale-

I thought this was great post. I think you've done a good job in addressing your leaks. With your mentality in the long run, I'm sure you'll be a winning player.

I thought I'd start the "discussion" on your emphasis about position. I think you might be OVER valueing the role of position and aggression in the games that you play. When you say, "So, I plan on tightening up SIGNIFICANTLY utg... and continuing to play my loose, raising style from LP." I think you are right to tighten up UTG, but I also think you should tighten up in late position, regardless of the action to you. The DECEPTION and IMAGE value gained by loose play in late position amounts to Fancy Play Syndrome in small stakes poker (regardless of full ring or 6max). DECEPTION is important if your opponents are playing your cards and not their own. But at SS, the vast majority of your opponents will not put you on a hand at all, instead they'll simply play their own cards and poorly probably at that. On a similar note, your IMAGE as a loose player is only important if you want your opponents to pay you off with mediocre holdings. The fact of that matter is that is the most common leak among small stakes players which is why value betting is so important. Your opponents will call you down with underpairs all day. So their is absolutely no reason to have to play marginal hands yourself in position. Simply play a tight game on the button and value bet, value bet and value bet.

In terms of playing OOP, I think it's not only important to play tight, but I also think it's important to control the size of the pot. I've found that playing a WA/WB type line, when OOP is often profitable. For example, if you raise with AQo UTG and the button calls. If the flop comes with Q high and theirs no flush or straight draw on the board, I suggest that you simply check-call. Your opponent will almost surely bet into you whether he has anything or not. I then might lead the turn or even check-call the turn depending on the habits of my opponent. On the other hand, if you call UTG with TJs and the button raises and you call. If the flops comes T high, then I'll lead the flop to protect my hand.

Another way I keep the pot small when OOP is to bet 3/4 of the pot vs a full pot with top pair hands. By making 3/4 bet sizes on the flop and turn will keep the pot significantly smaller, then making full size pots. This size bet will still usually not give your opponent the correct odds to call with most draws.

The last tactic I use to keep the pot small UTG is by making slightly smaller preflop raises of 3xBB. This will keep pots surprisingly significantly smaller when playing OOP.

I hope this helps and might get the discussion going on position. GL at building your bankroll.

PT

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

[ QUOTE ]
This next comment is something I'd really like some discussion on:
The key to solving the problem of being too loose is to emphasize position.

[/ QUOTE ]

A few days ago, or maybe longer, you posted something I really didn't understand. Someone asked how much to open with preflop, and you said you sometimes go as high as 5BB when UTG. This is backwards, IMO -- I open raise to 3BB UTG and UTG+1 usually, and do 4BB and sometimes 5BB from the later positions, depending on the table. This keeps the pots smaller when I have to cbet OOP and larger when I get to cbet in position.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

I think on your AQ example, I definitely C-bet. Like you said, value betting is key. I think there are good cases for leading turn and river, c/c turn and river, c/c turn and leading river, or leading turn and c/c river, depending on the villain.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

i dont like to take gambling shots at a higher level. (IMO, the first time you move up to a higher level, you usually lose because the money is bigger) I would much rather wait untill i have 20+ buy ins, 50k+winning hands, and a good win rate before i move up. Ive seen first hand what happens when you gamble to move up, run good for a while, then hit the wall and go BUSTO.

to the OP, i hope you learn alot from going broke. I know i did both times i went broke. I really enjoyed reading this post because it reminded me that even thougth im running quite well right now, theres still that risk, and i hav to make sure i make good decisions for my bankroll. good luck man, im sure youll be back at it in no time.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

[ QUOTE ]
i dont like to take gambling shots at a higher level. (IMO, the first time you move up to a higher level, you usually lose because the money is bigger) I would much rather wait untill i have 20+ buy ins, 50k+winning hands, and a good win rate before i move up. Ive seen first hand what happens when you gamble to move up, run good for a while, then hit the wall and go BUSTO.

to the OP, i hope you learn alot from going broke. I know i did both times i went broke. I really enjoyed reading this post because it reminded me that even thougth im running quite well right now, theres still that risk, and i hav to make sure i make good decisions for my bankroll. good luck man, im sure youll be back at it in no time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd like to emphasize that you should only take a shot with PART of your roll. Do not go 100% busto.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

I couldn't agree more!!

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

Good post. But i kind of disagree here:


[ QUOTE ]
Somebody once posted on here that folding AQ UTG in 6-max wouldn't really be leaving much money on the table, if any. I think they're right (I still raise AQ UTG 6max, but I certainly think twice about AJ now., and, after all... AQ is just a trumped up AJ )


[/ QUOTE ]


AQ and AJ is clear raises in most situations for me even UTG in 6 max.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

Baluga, for me I have always required at least 25 buyins at a level before I gave it a shot. It's just me but I'm pretty sure I'll never go bust. You should also be wary of high variance plays when your roll can't take a substantial downswing (having >25 buyins reduces this worry significantly). I've been drinking, but I think my post is coherent enough, so somebody point out it it's not.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think on your AQ example, I definitely C-bet. Like you said, value betting is key. I think there are good cases for leading turn and river, c/c turn and river, c/c turn and leading river, or leading turn and c/c river, depending on the villain.

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What makes you think that on a dry board that an opponent will call you with a weaker hand? And what do you do if your opponent raises?

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

[ QUOTE ]
Good post. But i kind of disagree here:


[ QUOTE ]
Somebody once posted on here that folding AQ UTG in 6-max wouldn't really be leaving much money on the table, if any. I think they're right (I still raise AQ UTG 6max, but I certainly think twice about AJ now., and, after all... AQ is just a trumped up AJ )


[/ QUOTE ]


AQ and AJ is clear raises in most situations for me even UTG in 6 max.

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It is for me, too, but that doesnt mean the theory is wrong.

At least, not very wrong. AQ is a pretty good hand at 6m against 5 random hands. But it's value decreases dramatically as the number of opponents increases beyond zero, and also as you position becomes more and more OOP. It's for these reasons that I'd say that the OP was right. Not for the reasons most people would comclude: that AQ doesn't have much value. It does have value. It also has big vulerabilities and is easily overplayed.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

Call me crazy but I started at 25NL and didn't move up to 50NL until I had about 50-60 buyins. This is what I plan on doing for each level. 50-60 buyins almost ensures that I won't go busto. I also am a college student and don't have a job currently to reload my BR is I happen to go busto, so building my roll slowly but surely is a great way for me to gain experience, make money, and allows me to play with very low risk.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

Yeah, maybe thats a leak of mine too (PF that is). Jesus, I've just started folding ATo UTG instead of raising it. AJ/AQ are mostly auto raises for me.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

BW -

Sorry to hear you went busto. I hope you do get re-rolled, becasue I think you are a fundamentally good player & it would be +EV for you to continue.

I'll be candid. I think going broke will do you good. It sure did me a world of good. I went broke back in my limit days, and I remember making a post similar to this one too. I posted some big lessons I learned. Things like pushing small edges ruthlessly (remember, that was limit) and never letting up on aggression.

But I left a lot of things out, too. Things that were hard for me to admit to myself, let alone to the board. Things that, once I learned to accept them, taught me the lessons I really needed to learn.

Many of these things I now repeat here endlessly, ad nauseum. Things like humility being the key to poker. And things like you should always assume that your losses were 100% due to poor play, and variance isn't why you went broke.

I'll give you a concrete example.

You've said that you lost a lot of money on flush over flush. If this were limit I'd say, OK, maybe that's just sample size. But this isn't limit. You can't just call down & be safe. You shouldn't be overvaluing non-nut hands.

I'm no nut-peddler. (Just ask TWP) I don't suggest folding non-nut flushes. But a non-nut flush is good against an opponent who is overvaluing a hand less than a flush. They shouldn't be taken to a flush-vs-flush fight. At least, you shouldn't be going broke in these situations. If you're going to be in a gun fight, you'd better damned well know that you have the biggest gun. You should know when you are flush-vs-flush and when you're flush-vs-pair or something. You should know. Don't lose your stack to a better flush.

When I went broke, I was about as good at limit as you are at no-limit now. That is, pretty good. But the most important thing I took from the experience ws this: I went broke becasue I sucked at poker. One hand at a time.

Get back in the game, bro. Train's rollin. Next stop, mid stakes.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

[ QUOTE ]
(sucked out on for ...) about 260 bucks... far, far, far larger than anything I'd ever dealt with at 25NL. To have that happen was something I was totally unprepared for.

In short, it really sucked.

[/ QUOTE ]

ouch. that blows.

That would have dented my confidence a lot as well. I still remember playing at $10NL when I won my first $50 pot - tht felt good - I was jumping around like a loon for a good 10 mins afterwards.

I'm just saying that for me I have been around the block now for a while and I can understand and accept that even if I get my $ in as 99% favourite sometimes I am going to lose - yes it would suck but I am experienced enough now to deal it it without monkey tilting more cash away.

Recently I lost a monster pot at $50NL playing 68s and that upset me for a while - but I got over it didn't let it get on top of me and I'm still here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I know I'm a solid player at $50NL and to lose more than 6 or so buyins (meaning I'd have to move down) just isn't going to happen without a run of appauling cards.

I am comfortable with my meagre 10buy-ins at $50NL - I remain confident that soon I will stop breaking even and start making money. Lots of other posters won't be comfortable till they have much more in their rolls - and if you're not comfortable playing at a level then you shouldn't be there regardless of how big your wallet is.

I don't want to move permanently to $100NL till I have a 20 buyin roll + or until I am confident like I am now at $50NL that I am a reasonable player who isn't going to donk away most of it by playing badly.

Hope your next $250 pot gets shipped in your direction [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

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I know I'm a solid player at $50NL and to lose more than 6 or so buyins (meaning I'd have to move down) just isn't going to happen without a run of appauling cards.

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FWIW -- I just played 7k hands at $50NL for a modest 8.5PTBB/100 and had one 6-buyin downswing. Yes, I had crappy cards, with multiple flush over flush and set over set situations each session and suckouts and KK vs AA and everything you'd expect, but it does happen.

Part of my problem, while going busto, was that I'm exactly the type of person you describe: someone who can sit at a table with a large fraction of my roll and play the same game. I can push 3 buyins on a bluff, b3b half my roll on a draw and it doesn't phase me. It just gets my juices flowing.

For exactly that reason, I think I need discipline more than most people. Fear, consequences don't stop me. I need discipline and willpower to avoid doing stupid, high variance things like buying into $1000NL with a $2000 roll because the game looks good. If you're the same then I really recommend you consider this. Yes, there's a fair chance you will get away with it... but if you do then you will probably keep doing it until the witch catches up with you.

Of course, I know you won't listen to me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] but mull it over for a bit.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

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Call me crazy but I started at 25NL and didn't move up to 50NL until I had about 50-60 buyins. This is what I plan on doing for each level. 50-60 buyins almost ensures that I won't go busto.

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It also ensures that you will make money much more slowly. 30x is fine, I'm in college too

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

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I'd like to emphasize that you should only take a shot with PART of your roll. Do not go 100% busto.

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Amen.

This is my plan - I know that personally I am comfortable at the 50's with 10 buyins - so if my shot goes wrong I still have my 10 buyins to fall back on so I am not shooting myself in the foot. The fim post says "take little shots when you are comfortable" and I am - so I will (when I can afford to - I'm stil not quite there yet but I will be soon)

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

Yeah, when players at the middle stakes don't play that loose UTG, then there's definitly no reason for us to. Tight ABC poker is where the money is at the small stakes.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

shameless bump for morning crew

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Call me crazy but I started at 25NL and didn't move up to 50NL until I had about 50-60 buyins. This is what I plan on doing for each level. 50-60 buyins almost ensures that I won't go busto.

[/ QUOTE ]

It also ensures that you will make money much more slowly. 30x is fine, I'm in college too

[/ QUOTE ]

I've just moved up to 200NL (this week) and my roll was about 7K at that time. Thats 35 buy-ins which seems to be enough indeed. I don't like people moving up when they have 10 buy-ins (especially if you play SH) but to each his own.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

baluga,

Great post, I wish you gl in the future

Paul Thomson,

I disagree, I think riasing less UTG is bad. It means we let other people in for cheap with poition over us and we have to play a TP type hand OOP. As long as you play well post flop, there is no reason to raise LESS UTG.

Matrix,

tl;dr [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Call me crazy but I started at 25NL and didn't move up to 50NL until I had about 50-60 buyins. This is what I plan on doing for each level. 50-60 buyins almost ensures that I won't go busto.

[/ QUOTE ]

It also ensures that you will make money much more slowly. 30x is fine, I'm in college too

[/ QUOTE ]

I've just moved up to 200NL (this week) and my roll was about 7K at that time. Thats 35 buy-ins which seems to be enough indeed. I don't like people moving up when they have 10 buy-ins (especially if you play SH) but to each his own.

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I partly agree with this, but I also think it's good to take shots here and there. Before I depleted my bankroll for my Vegas trip in March, I was sitting on about $1200 and playing NL50. I decided to try mixing in 1 or 2 tables of NL100. Well I played really well and added more tables with the plan of moving back to NL50 if I dipped below $1000. That allowed me to (for the time being) get the bankroll to be fully rolled at NL100.

The funny thing is that I'm in the same boat again, recovering my bankroll after losing it in Vegas [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

Very nice post. Bankroll management and not going busto is very important. But I am also one on the shot taking side argument. You should be overrolled for your "main game", but I think you should be willing to take small shots at higher games when they look good.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

Awesome post - The part about losing loads of extra money by overvaluing hands shortly after being stacked in an acceptable way is something ive done a lot of over the last weekend.

This weekend was a real hit in the face and your post has definitely fastracked me to identifying my errors.

Tbh I already thought I really needed to work on my discipline but I genuinely believed the commonly stated buyin amount was far more than necessary. Now I'm reconsidering, and I'm thinking I may need more than the average person since I also seem to refuse to leave tables where i'm sure i'm outclassed.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

I remember reading a post a while back where someone ran BB/100 and the SD on a computer program that spit out the normal distribution of the winrate for 100 players over 100K hands (I would be very grateful if someone had a link). The numbers he input where, I think, 2PTBB/100 and an SD of 45. This was for limit and this is a very good winrate. The program ran all the numbers and reported winrate for those 100 imaginary players over 100K hands. The results were that 4 out of the 100 people had a winrate of below .4BB/100 or almost break even over 100 thousand hands. Those are scary numbers. So, to really know your true winrate you might need more than 50K hands, you might need a million to be absolutly sure. This means that even the best poker players will have 20k, 50k or even 100k breakeven streches. And you never know when it will happen. All you can do is improve your game cause most people, even some excellent players, underestimate the true power of Variance.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

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partly agree with this, but I also think it's good to take shots here and there. Before I depleted my bankroll for my Vegas trip in March, I was sitting on about $1200 and playing NL50. I decided to try mixing in 1 or 2 tables of NL100. Well I played really well and added more tables with the plan of moving back to NL50 if I dipped below $1000. That allowed me to (for the time being) get the bankroll to be fully rolled at NL100.



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I agree with this. I think there is nothing wrong with taking shots, but you have to be able to move right back down if you lose the money you were taking a shot with. Do not try to win it back.

When I was playing limit, I was playing 1/2 with a $3000 bankroll, but I was being a big nit. When I finally moved up to 2/4 it still took time to get used to the bet sizes and the money being double. After a short time I took a shot at 3/6, I put aside a set amount that I was willing to lose, and if I lost it, I would move back down.

If you set aside an amount to take a shot with, you may get lucky and run hot, which will get your bankroll where it should be for that limit. Or you may lose it, but you can always go back and grind that amount and take another shot. After doing this a time or two, the stakes at the next level don't seem so overwhelming b/c you have played them before. I think the hardes part is getting used to the new stakes.

op, good luck, you seem to have a good head on your shoulders, I'm sure you will be fine.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

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Call me crazy but I started at 25NL and didn't move up to 50NL until I had about 50-60 buyins. This is what I plan on doing for each level. 50-60 buyins almost ensures that I won't go busto.

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It also ensures that you will make money much more slowly. 30x is fine, I'm in college too

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I've just moved up to 200NL (this week) and my roll was about 7K at that time. Thats 35 buy-ins which seems to be enough indeed. I don't like people moving up when they have 10 buy-ins (especially if you play SH) but to each his own.

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20 is the recommended bare minimum without taking a cautious shot. 25 is my personal comfort level. 50-60 is just absurd IMO. You shouldn't still be at 200NL if you're consistently beating the game and have a $12k roll. That's passing up more $/hr for no real reason IMO

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

Great post, one comment.

Position - someone asked TWP about his game when trying to assess a hand he posted. His answer was "TAG from EP, LAG for LP". This mindset makes a lot of sense to me.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

http://www.svenskpoker.com/math.php?...alc2=calculate

Not sure what to make of the 'Maximum loss in bb' stat. I'm thinking that my bankroll should be at least 3x this amount. 2x and I'd expect to be moving down every month after a downswing.

Re: Analysis of a downswing
 

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TAG from EP, LAG for LP

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That's my approach too. And I'm quite tight from the blinds. Either completing from the SB or calling a raise from either blind.