Late in tourney, AQ in SB facing a Button push
 

Party Super Tuesday.

About 25 people remaining. I'm top 6 in chips.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t6000/t12000
(Ante: t200)
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t372852
UTG+1: t120265
MP1: t190464
MP2: t72028
LP: t112331
BUTTON: t129643
Hero (SB): t258146
BB: t184195

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
5 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises all-in t129443</font>

Whats the right play?

I will say that villian has not been very active in the time I've been at this table.

If I call and win, I'm chip leader. If I call and lose, I'm in the middle of the pack and a little below average.

My thoughts: Why is he pushing here instead of making a standard raise? He clearly doesn't want to see a flop or he's representing a steal with crap.

Now Button shouldn't be desperate IMO (m=7.2). He's not in horrible shape given the blinds and not in need of pushing weak out of desperation. but surely he wants to accumulate some more chips.

So which is right? folding and not risking 1/2 my stack? OR calling and trying to move into 1st when chip stacks matter most?

Please give detailed thoughts on your action. Enough of these "call" or "fold" posts with no explanation please.

I have a very strong opinion on this which I will keep to myself for now.

-Scott

Re: Late in tourney, AQ in SB facing a Button push
 

The reality is this is a very clear +cEV spot, but there are obviously other implications at hand here. There are some that would prefer not to gamble here, but there are others (like myself) who really want to gamble in a spot like this.

You are more than a little ahead of his range IMO. However, if the table was REALLY weak, and you were stealing very easily, I MIGHT consider possibly folding. However, the situation would really have to be extreme.

Re: Late in tourney, AQ in SB facing a Button push
 

You're definitely well ahead of his range, even tight players push almost any ace, as well as pairs and some big broadway cards. I think you're reading too much into the push, he only has 10bb, a lot of people (most 2+2ers included) just push or fold at that point. I can't see passing up this big of an edge at this point, especially since you have plenty of chips left. Even in Ansky's example with a super weak table, there's nothing to stop you from continuing to steal even if you lose this pot.

Short version: Easy push.

Steve

Re: Late in tourney, AQ in SB facing a Button push
 

seems like a trivially easy call.

Re: Late in tourney, AQ in SB facing a Button push
 

I'm not sure why you are looking so much at his all-in move as opposed to a standard raise. With only 10x BB left on the button, I'm moving in with pretty much every hand I'm raising with.

Easy push in your spot with AQ. You're a pretty substantial favorite over his range in this spot assuming he's any kind of "player" and not some weak-tightie just lookin to move up.

-ActionBob

Re: Late in tourney, AQ in SB facing a Button push
 

[ QUOTE ]
seems like a trivially easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, what am I missing here?

Edit: I guess sometimes people wake up with hands at the tops of their ranges. Even total nits will have a range against which AQ is an great shape when they have 10 BBs and the button.

Re: Late in tourney, AQ in SB facing a Button push
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're definitely well ahead of his range, even tight players push almost any ace, as well as pairs and some big broadway cards. I think you're reading too much into the push, he only has 10bb, a lot of people (most 2+2ers included) just push or fold at that point. I can't see passing up this big of an edge at this point, especially since you have plenty of chips left. Even in Ansky's example with a super weak table, there's nothing to stop you from continuing to steal even if you lose this pot.

Short version: Easy push.

Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

This pretty much sums up what I was going to say, it sucks posts fill up so quick I have nothing pertinent to say. :/

Re: Late in tourney, AQ in SB facing a Button push
 

A realistic range could be A7+, 55+, KQ-KTs. I definitely call.

What should hero do if he also has only about 10BB left? Still call, right?

Re: Late in tourney, AQ in SB facing a Button push
 

[ QUOTE ]
What should hero do if he also has only about 10BB left? Still call, right?

[/ QUOTE ]
That would make me want to call even more (if that's possible).

Re: Late in tourney, AQ in SB facing a Button push
 

I call, but I'm not thrilled....
calling a medium stack push here from a strategic staindpoint gives you two shots to win the tourney...

you can win at showdown, locking yourself into the FT and probably assuring yourself no worse than a 4th or 5th finish, esp if you abuse the FT minibubble...

even if you lose, you retain enough chips to be competitive...

that said, normally when a quiet player pushes against a big stack there is a reason why.. and it isn't because you're flipping for 250K...

did he flip over AK?

Re: Late in tourney, AQ in SB facing a Button push
 

[ QUOTE ]

You are more than a little ahead of his range IMO. However, if the table was REALLY weak, and you were stealing very easily, I MIGHT consider possibly folding. However, the situation would really have to be extreme.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the table was really weak, and stealing was easy, I think I would rather gamble here. You can easily make back the 12k in chips with a few steals since the blinds are so high, and you are about to be on the button having just shown down AQ. Regardless, this is an easy call IMO. I fold AQ in many types of situations with no problem, but I don't think I would ever fold AQ from the blinds in this spot. If he has AA/KK/AK, good for him. All I know is that you are ahead of even an extremely tight player's range in this spot.

a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

My friend (well known online player) is a strong advocate of folding and talked to Scott Fischman and The Grinder on IM about this hand.

Scott says Fold. Grinder says 70% fold, 30% call.

He also posted it on P5s and the majority there say fold. (please lets not get in to your opinion of that site)

Why do two such prominent and successful players fold here, and all the 2+2ers say call?

-Scott

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

[ QUOTE ]
My friend (well known online player) is a strong advocate of folding and talked to Scott Fischman and The Grinder on IM about this hand.

Scott says Fold. Grinder says 70% fold, 30% call.

He also posted it on P5s and the majority there say fold. (please lets not get in to your opinion of that site)

Why do two such prominent and successful players fold here, and all the 2+2ers say call?

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

I would imagine they would rather fold and go for the sure blind steals and use their stacks to bully the other players in a more general sense than risk so much of their stack here on the mere speculation that we are slightly favored against his range.

Also, eliminating a player is insignificant til we get closer to the big money, and we are not at an artificial payout bubble (those are usually when tables break in the super right, aka 21-30 all pay the same?).

This is an example of passing up a small or unsure edge to exploit larger ones in future hands.

I would probably call because I am not as good as Scott Fischman ([img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]) of the Grinder ([img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]), and I don't think I could afford to pass this up. I would instacall this in fact (which is probably TERRIBLE).

Steve

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

[ QUOTE ]
My friend (well known online player) is a strong advocate of folding and talked to Scott Fischman and The Grinder on IM about this hand.

Scott says Fold. Grinder says 70% fold, 30% call.

He also posted it on P5s and the majority there say fold. (please lets not get in to your opinion of that site)

Why do two such prominent and successful players fold here, and all the 2+2ers say call?

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

because we don't pass up edges.

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

I completely understand the idea behind folding. But, I can't fold this knowing that I am ahead of the Villian's range. And, that is probably because of 2+2.

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is an example of passing up a small or unsure edge to exploit larger ones in future hands.


[/ QUOTE ]

This edge is certainly far from small here.

-ActionBob

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

my guess is that they very rarely play typical online tournaments (under 500 buy-in say) at this point. Therefore they are not familiar with the range that a button push signifies nor can they make accurate judgements about how likely they are to pick up chips without showdown moving forward.

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

So I know this guy who knows a guy who knows this other guy and he said he'd fold. I told my friend that just saying fold without any reasoning is completely useless, and he said "no its ok because he's got a WPT win under his belt."

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

From now on, I guess I should play like a high profile nit.

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

I can't find a fold here at all. I had this exact situation the other day and the guy flipped over 42s.

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

[ QUOTE ]
So I know this guy who knows a guy who knows this other guy and he said he'd fold. I told my friend that just saying fold without any reasoning is completely useless, and he said "no its ok because he's got a WPT win under his belt."

[/ QUOTE ]

what is the value/point of this post?

I'm simply passing on the opinions of two very successful tourney players, to add to the discussion. I'm not saying anyone is right or wrong. Just trying to generate a meaningful dialog.

And its not a 'knows this guy who knows this guy', so quit being a prick. My friend is a well known tourney player who asked Fischman and Mizrachi just to get their input.

And frankly, if those two (plus my friend) all think its a fold, then there is room for discussion on the issue.

-Scott

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

i go for a behind the back mouse click for an insta allin push on this one, then i shake my rump because i know im ahead of his range.

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

[ QUOTE ]
So I know this guy who knows a guy who knows this other guy and he said he'd fold. I told my friend that just saying fold without any reasoning is completely useless, and he said "no its ok because he's got a WPT win under his belt."

[/ QUOTE ]

well played.

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So I know this guy who knows a guy who knows this other guy and he said he'd fold. I told my friend that just saying fold without any reasoning is completely useless, and he said "no its ok because he's got a WPT win under his belt."

[/ QUOTE ]

what is the value/point of this post?

I'm simply passing on the opinions of two very successful tourney players, to add to the discussion. I'm not saying anyone is right or wrong. Just trying to generate a meaningful dialog.

And its not a 'knows this guy who knows this guy', so quit being a prick. My friend is a well known tourney player who asked Fischman and Mizrachi just to get their input.

And frankly, if those two (plus my friend) all think its a fold, then there is room for discussion on the issue.

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

The point is, you can't just say "so and so" says its a push. It's useless unless they say why. It's as simple as that. We're all reasonably intelligent, thinking, players who can't take "because I said so" as justification. Except from God.

Ansky's point is that citing experts is basically next to useless, unless they give their opinion why.

On the LSAT there's a bunch of different kinds of flaws arguments can make, one of them is "appeal to expert".

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So I know this guy who knows a guy who knows this other guy and he said he'd fold. I told my friend that just saying fold without any reasoning is completely useless, and he said "no its ok because he's got a WPT win under his belt."

[/ QUOTE ]

what is the value/point of this post?

I'm simply passing on the opinions of two very successful tourney players, to add to the discussion. I'm not saying anyone is right or wrong. Just trying to generate a meaningful dialog.

And its not a 'knows this guy who knows this guy', so quit being a prick. My friend is a well known tourney player who asked Fischman and Mizrachi just to get their input.

And frankly, if those two (plus my friend) all think its a fold, then there is room for discussion on the issue.

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure if they disagreed this would be a more interesting discussion, but just saying "so and so disagrees" holds no value, and doesn't do anything for a discussion. The reality is you ARE ahead by the buttons range, but a fairly significant amount. So for you to throw at names with no real reasoning while it is intriguing that they would say that, I don't think it really is all that useful. Phil Hellmuth writes some world class bullcrap in his book and articles, so by just being a great player doesn't make what you write gospel.

If you would tell your "friend" that we all await his logic and explanation, then I would think his opinion would be relevent to the discussion.

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

Folding to the FT is worth more to their endorsement deals than playing for first. JMHO.

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

If villan is folding A9, AT, AJ, 22-JJ, he is incredibly weak.
Unrealistically weak.

If you polled every internet poker forum, they would say, 10xBB is when push/fold becomes standard.

Unless you are going to dispute one of those facts, you can't argue that this call is +++CEV.

So, any arguement comes down to a reason you should pass on an edge at this stage of a tournament. Unless you want to provide some rational why this is correct, you can't honestly expect anyone to see why a deep discussion is warranted.

As a side note, whenever I watch the WPT, I am always shocked at how small the PF raises are, it is somewhat likely that the pros you mentioned may not have analyzed the hand in the correct context.

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

wtf does grinder know, he called all in with AJo to nguyen's fourth raise!!!???


This is an awfully easy call.

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

If you polled every internet poker forum, they would say, 10xBB is when push/fold becomes standard.

Funny you say this.

Go to pocketfives where my friend posted this hand.

That forum is almost unanimous in it being a fold.

-Scott

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

Uhmmm the two are not mutually exclusive.

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

So, any arguement comes down to a reason you should pass on an edge at this stage of a tournament. Unless you want to provide some rational why this is correct, you can't honestly expect anyone to see why a deep discussion is warranted.

Oh and it seems their reasoning is based on the chips I lose (if I lose the hand) are more of a loss than the chips I gain if I call and win.

-Scott

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

Then that forum either:
1- has a vastly different opinion than us on the average pushing range for villain here (and I mean a REALLY smaller range) or
2- thinks they will find alot more equity in other spots than they really will

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

[ QUOTE ]
So, any arguement comes down to a reason you should pass on an edge at this stage of a tournament. Unless you want to provide some rational why this is correct, you can't honestly expect anyone to see why a deep discussion is warranted.

Oh and it seems their reasoning is based on the chips I lose (if I lose the hand) are more of a loss than the chips I gain if I call and win.

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]
That reasoning can be applied to an argument to fold aces here.

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

Just link the p5s thread, so we can see which all stars said this is a fold.

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

Nevermind I found the thread, and wtf do you mean the overwhelming response was fold? There were quite a few call responses, and from some pretty damn good players.

Hardly anyone who said fold gave a range or even said anything that made sense at all. They said "you are 60/40 or a big dog, wtf is that.

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

I'm sure they argued "You don't really want to race or be dominated here". P5s is atrocious for actual hand discussion and analysis.

I call this all day, every day, because I have a BIG edge against the button's range and I'm looking to get those chips because I'm not under the delusion that my stack is strong enough to pass up those edges.

edit: I wrote that before I saw Ansky's reply but it's more or less what I would have expected.

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

The best part of that thread is that the OP actually says to "keep the responses short."

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

[ QUOTE ]
agreed w/ matt (who said call), this thread is the most shocking thing I've read on p5 since I learned that JJ was 16.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is from Ari, I don't know who this is but since he's on their front page as a top 5 player I'd say he's one of the better posters on the site. Also he has the same name as me so I have to give him credit.

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

He also likes James Taylor, so that just reinforces his quality, IMO...


BTW using P5s as "unanimous" evidence of a fold really doesn't convince me.

Re: a little wrinkle to the discussion:
 

If you ever want a kick, read through some of the other hand discussion threads. I just found one where someone smooth called one raise with KK preflop, got all his chips in on a low flop, and was trying to figure out how to get away from losing to AA.
Stuff like that all over the place.