No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

MP open raises in a 6-max game to 80, I call on the button with A9s. HU to the flop of Q76 with Q and 6 of clubs. He checks. This usually means, in my mind, that I’m against a hand that is giving up or a hand that is trying to keep the pot small and manageable for showdown. Occasionally, this is a big hand that wants to CR the flop or deceive me on the flop for later streets, but often enough this is just a player giving up. I generally make opponents work to win pots on me when I am in position, and this ultimately leads to people just not wanting to get involved with me in smaller pots with nothing. So I bet 180 and he instantly calls.

This speed of a call is generally a weak made hand, or a draw… Generally.

The turn is the Ace of spades, putting two spades on board. He checks and I bet 380.

Why did I bet? It’s definitely not to charge a draw; that is not my main concern. I bet for value. Sure, there is a chance I get check raised, but we are deep enough (100bb) where my opponent will not feel pot committed, and where my opponent could easily check-call with a hand that he felt was best. Many opponents are hesitant to put me on an ace here after betting the flop. If I get CR’d, it’s usually by a better hand.

He calls after some deliberation. This can mean anything… He has a Q and doesn’t believe me. He could be drawing, he could’ve made top pair. He might even still have a very big hand that is playing a bit slow.

The river brings a total blank, a red deuce. He instantly checks.

At this point, I feel like my hand is almost definitely good. In this spot, if I bet ½ pot, my opponent will probably think my range is something like a very big hand, a good one pair hand, or a bluff. If I pot it, my opponent is much more likely to think very big hand, or no hand at all (ie one of the billions of conveniently missed draws). It makes a call with anything that beats a pure bluff more likely, in my opinion. Some will argue that I’m going to blow a second best hand away too often by potting this river, I disagree… Especially with the overall package I present to the table when I play. Another benefit of a full-pot bet here is that I’m less likely to get CR bluffed, which actually is a very strong move against a player like me.

If I lose the hand, it’s likely to a stronger ace that decided to check-call the flop, which isn’t that uncommon.

I bet 1100.

How’s my line/thought process?

edit: i never had a draw in this hand

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

i like... a lot.

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

I like the play on the flop in order to pick it up. People do indeed give up.

I like the turn. You could definitely be betting for value.

That being said I'll check behind on the river. The check/call, check/call kind of worries me. It could represent an A10, AJ, or even an AQ that wants to now checkraise, after wondering if he can suck you in for one more "value" bet on the river.

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

I like it especially if he is a thinking player. He may figure that you would never bet a pair of aces in that spot when your hand has such huge showdown value. Therefore he may talk himself into a call with JJ type hand. Of course he might have played AK this way, which he would call with given the draws that missed, but I think the shania that comes if he has AK and calls is worth it, especially since he will make heroic calls often enough on that river. Bet size is perfect imo.

I dont play this hand the same way on the turn or river (I check one of them for sure) but with your image and style of play, its a good long term move.

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

I think you should make more posts like this, Strass. Hearing your thought process throughout the hand is very helpful.

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

I think AK, AJ, A10 calls you here almost every time, that's the only reason I don't like it. And I think we all can agree that a A10, AJ might "give up" on this flop and then decide to become inquisitive when you pot the flop.

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should make more posts like this, Strass. Hearing your thought process throughout the hand is very helpful.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

of course AK AJ AT calls

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think AK, AJ, A10 calls you here almost every time, that's the only reason I don't like it. And I think we all can agree that a A10, AJ might "give up" on this flop and then decide to become inquisitive when you pot the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]


I dont see why AT AJ would ever check/call the flop after raising pre. If they dont cbet those hands, they are giving up to action. Possibly AK but no way AJ AT

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

It's possible, but not typical. I see people do stuff like this occasionally, and I've done it as well. (check call with very weak hands on the flop with an aggressive player in position with limited plans on seeing showdown)

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

against an agressive player in position check calling flop is often better than betting w/AT, at least imo.

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's possible, but not typical. I see people do stuff like this occasionally, and I've done it as well. (check call with very weak hands on the flop with an aggressive player in position with limited plans on seeing showdown)

[/ QUOTE ]

bad strategy, no?

Oh yeah and fold preflop.

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

J-strass

Pretend everything was the same but the turn was an offsuit 3 or something. Do you check behind? Obviously not every time, but if you don't give up at least a good amount, then you're making his line pretty profitable.

Also, I know you like this move a lot, but if you occassionally check behind made hands in spots like this, it might help set up for bets like this at other times. That, and if he gets the idea that you're making bets like this, people will (or should) start checking a lot of made hands to you to bet for them. Wouldn't it be sick if he flipped up AQ or something here?

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

I just need someone to write or point me to the direction of betting the river at the cash game level with deep stacks compared to when to check behind. I obviously know when to do it when I'm strongly confident in my hand and try to pull money out of the villain. I know when to bet the river when I've missed a draw or sense weakness in my opponent and try to blow him off his hand.

Why bet this river though, instead of checking behind? We COULD have the best hand but an ace calls us and I'm not sure if any middle pair does.

Mainly, how do we know its value betting....and why not check behind if we are not sure.

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

Good post.

How much to bet on the river and even if you should bet the river is pretty close IMHO. I think it boils down to how wacky your image is. If you have a loose reckless image I'd pot it.
Contrarily if your opponent is tight I'd probably check because if he calls he has to have a better kicker than yours. I can certainly envision a tight player checking the flop with AK, AJ, etc. and then check/call the hand down.

Bruce

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

i think this situation is very opponent specific.

if he did have a very big draw, would he really check call you the whole way? i feel like a c/r on the turn would be in order, or maybe he would just lead the flop strong...

its really just a question of will this guy call you down with qk or qj, kk, jj, 10s, 9s, 8s... and what range do you put him on pf raising to 80... if he does have something like jacks theres a very good chance he'll give it up on the turn

by the river he has to have missed draw, aq, ak, aj, a10, kk, qq, qk, qj... i personally would bet less on the river, you get no value out of a missed draw, make it very tough for qk qj and kk to call you, and pretty easy for the other group of hands to call you and take it down

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

I think that with every subsequent PSB you put in the chances of villain sticking around with a worse hand get worse and worse. If he wasn't drawing or slowplaying, I think one of two things is likely: AK-type hands which are calling or (more likely given the flop action) KK/JJ-type hands which may not have believed you on the turn but now are more likely to believe you on the river.

I know you're aggressive and all that jazz but I think you're overrating how often JJ is going to just call off two straight PSBs with an ace on board (especially given the previous PSB before the ace hit). The lower you get on his spectrum of non-set pocket pairs, the less likely he is to call so I think that the chances of getting called by a worse hand are slim (in the case of KK/JJ) to none (in the case of 88 or 55).

I think he has a missed draw/two pair/a set/a pocket pair he's folding/AK-AJ much more often than he has (and calls with) 88-JJ/KK/A2-A5 so I don't bet this very often.

As for your bet on the turn "for value"-sure he's not necessarily pot-committed if he calls but he's still got to worry about playing OOP on the river in what is a big pot. Given that you're not exactly known for your small value bets and post-oak bluffs and you like to apply pressure he's going to have to make a tough decision for a lot of money if he calls the turn so you can't quite claim that his turn call can easily be a worse hand.

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
I can certainly envision a tight player checking the flop with AK, AJ, etc. and then check/call the hand down.

Bruce

[/ QUOTE ]

People really think it's not that uncommon for villain to c/call the flop (losing the lead in the hand OOP) with an unimproved AK/AJ? I think that this is pretty unlikely (though I still think villain's calling range on the river is predominantly better hands, I think it's because this is either a slowplay a missed draw or a hand that is hoping to go to showdown but ready to give up after so much pressure)

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

How long have you played with this guy? What has he shown down in a hand in which he raised? What was he flop action (a continuation bet?)

This would actually help me a lot more of what I would do on the river.

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

why would he check call the flop with KK or JJ/TT or a Q?

and if he did hit the A on the turn with A better kicker, it makes no sense for him to value bet the river as he can't put you on an ace. Thus hes check calling river again

I think you paid off a better ace in this hand.

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

Jason,

do you have the nut flush draw?

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Jason,

do you have the nut flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

He says at the bottom that he never had a draw on this hand.

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

okay, sorry missed the edit.......I agree with the turn thought process.....the river I'd either full pot or check behind (but likely fold if he full potted into me), but I almost never bet half the pot on the river.......

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

Great post -

I think that when you see that check-call flop from the PFR HU, he most likely has a piece of the flop, but doesnt want to get raised. QJ/87/maybe a gutter like 9T. So he figures check-call is the best line. As for the turn, once he check-calls again, you can be fairly certain that he does not have a hand like A7 or A6, he would have led or raised to price out draws. Either he has a Q that he wants showdown, or that turn helped him. My money is either on QJ or 56 of spades-type hand.

The river bet is just great - I have got to work that into my game.

D

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

FWF,

This is a sweet post, and it's basically what Al (AJo) tells me every time he sees me play a hand like this. He thinks that I overestimate people's ability to call me down thin, and that my bet has very little value.

You make extremely good points, let me see if I have any answers.


[ QUOTE ]
I think that with every subsequent PSB you put in the chances of villain sticking around with a worse hand get worse and worse. If he wasn't drawing or slowplaying, I think one of two things is likely: AK-type hands which are calling or (more likely given the flop action) KK/JJ-type hands which may not have believed you on the turn but now are more likely to believe you on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be interested in seeing how often an opponent check-called the flop with ace hi. I really don't have a clue how often this happens against me as I rarely see people play ace hi like this on the flop and then show it down. I do agree that the chances people stick around are slim, but I do think that once an opponent makes a decision on the turn to call me down, they often call the river as well. I do a lot of giving up after a turn barrel here for this exact reason.

[ QUOTE ]
I know you're aggressive and all that jazz but I think you're overrating how often JJ is going to just call off two straight PSBs with an ace on board (especially given the previous PSB before the ace hit). The lower you get on his spectrum of non-set pocket pairs, the less likely he is to call so I think that the chances of getting called by a worse hand are slim (in the case of KK/JJ) to none (in the case of 88 or 55).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is where I think I see a gap in your logic, from my perspective. My opponent has a brain, lets presume, and because of this shouldn't he realize that his calldown with JJ is the same calldown as with 55? I obviously am not value betting worse. You seem to think of it as a gradient, I think though that most opponents will lump all their hands that don't beat a value bet but beat a bluff in one group. There definitely is a slight gradient, but it's fairly insignificant IMO. Generally the tougher the player, the flatter this gradient.

[ QUOTE ]
I think he has a missed draw/two pair/a set/a pocket pair he's folding/AK-AJ much more often than he has (and calls with) 88-JJ/KK/A2-A5 so I don't bet this very often.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's fair. I think this river decision, isolated by itself is probably very close to neutral expected value. But as part of a bigger plan, I think it really helps my game. The more times I can fire big on the river like this, the easier time I have getting paid off with big hands. It's also much tougher to play against an opponent capable of these very thin value bets, because their range on their psb's on the river is much larger and you can't really think that your opponent has a big hand or air, but maybe top pair.

It also helps me...

[ QUOTE ]

As for your bet on the turn "for value"-sure he's not necessarily pot-committed if he calls but he's still got to worry about playing OOP on the river in what is a big pot. Given that you're not exactly known for your small value bets and post-oak bluffs and you like to apply pressure he's going to have to make a tough decision for a lot of money if he calls the turn so you can't quite claim that his turn call can easily be a worse hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pick up the small pots for this exact reason. People give up on the turn vs me all the time for reasons like this. And when they call the turn, they often also call the river because they made up their minds on the turn to call me down. This all plays right into my game plan where I can pressure my opponents in such a way where even if I am giving up on the river fairly often with nothing, I am still going to have the necessary image to get paid off in the big pots with the goods and also push people off small pots who don't want to deal with what they might interpret as overagressive crazy river crap.

ML4L used to tell me to not let my opponents know what I'm capable of. However, the more I play this game the more im interested in letting my opponents know what I can do with very thin value bets, because it really helps me control pots and extract value.

The more I think about poker, the more I realize that there are some very good players who make very big technical errors. I think the general 2p2 mantra on a hand like this would be to check the turn and bet the river, or vice versa. But the important thing to do in poker is in my mind is to set up your opponents. Lots of the very successful big game players get away with technical mistakes that even a very beginner on 2p2 might not make, but the reality is that the benefits of working an overal gameplan on an opponent successfuly far outweighs hedging perfect Sklansky-dollar bets.

-Jason

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

Coltrane,

I would definitely fold the river if he led into me.

-Jason

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pretend everything was the same but the turn was an offsuit 3 or something. Do you check behind?

[/ QUOTE ]

You know the answer to this question.... Sometimes.

The fact that I have ace hi on a draw heavy board means that this sometimes is typically a check in this situation. But it all depends and any good player has to mix up his decision here.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I know you like this move a lot, but if you occassionally check behind made hands in spots like this, it might help set up for bets like this at other times. That, and if he gets the idea that you're making bets like this, people will (or should) start checking a lot of made hands to you to bet for them. Wouldn't it be sick if he flipped up AQ or something here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well back to what I said in the FWF reply, I really don't all out bluff the river in a spot like this very often. I would love people to think that I am. Relative to the field I am definitely firing more big river bets than mostly everyone, but that's because my game plan involves me betting big with varying strenghts of hands.

Sure, it definitely happens where I make a thin value bet and I get called by a better hand that played itself a little passively trying to combat my strategy. But in the long run pacifying my opponents is great for me because I will often fire into pots with draws (not even good draws, but gutshots, etc) and an opponent is making gigantic mistakes there playing passively. Again, don't put this hand in a nutshell, because it won't make sense why I'm doing it.

-Jason

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

You do better at poker when you are harder to play against. In my mind because of the action in this hand and the timing, I have the best hand here a mass majority of the time. I am not getting called often by worse hands, but it definitely does happen. I am also getting called by better hands, but in my head that will happen less than when i get called by worse hands. But even if this river bet was slightly -EV, I would still do it for the reasons I stated earlier.

-Jason

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

The discussion is this thread is very ++++++EV.

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

I would probably play it the same way until the river where I would check behind; but just listening to the thought process is invaluable.

A question I have about the strategy of potting it so as to represent a monster or air- Do you ever pot it with air here and under what circumstances? It seems like you would be forced to make this play at least one out of ten times you miss the ace on the turn to represent air when you do it in the future.

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

Stop looking for some sort of formula here because it doesnt exist. Sometimes I do crazy [censored] with nothing, more often I don't.

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

Sorry, I wasn't looking for a formula; but more what your thinking would be when you did pot it on the river with nothing. For instance, would you have made the same play with a hand like KJ there and what would your thought process be.

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
The more I think about poker, the more I realize that there are some very good players who make very big technical errors. I think the general 2p2 mantra on a hand like this would be to check the turn and bet the river, or vice versa. But the important thing to do in poker is in my mind is to set up your opponents. Lots of the very successful big game players get away with technical mistakes that even a very beginner on 2p2 might not make, but the reality is that the benefits of working an overal gameplan on an opponent successfuly far outweighs hedging perfect Sklansky-dollar bets.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

this is very sound analysis

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

Isn't this really just a matter of A. Have you 3 barrel bluffed in this game? and B. Do you have an extensive history against villain?

I know being generally psycho lag makes people's ranges very wide against you, and I agree that villain is likely to call a PSB if he's calling 1/2 pot on river, but to be honest, I think a PSB is going to end up being a bluff on this river a LOT more than it's going to be for value. In which case, that's not horrible either.

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't this really just a matter of A. Have you 3 barrel bluffed in this game? and B. Do you have an extensive history against villain?

I know being generally psycho lag makes people's ranges very wide against you, and I agree that villain is likely to call a PSB if he's calling 1/2 pot on river, but to be honest, I think a PSB is going to end up being a bluff on this river a LOT more than it's going to be for value. In which case, that's not horrible either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes I have 3-barrel bluffed before. More than once. Not a ton of history but I think we had some.

Seems like your argument that a PSB is a bluff is a perfect reason to play the hand exactly as I did. Am I missing something?

-Jason

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

It would be something incredibly complicated involving partial differential equations, Laplace transforms and basic knowledge of electromagnetic wave propagation that goes something like:

I don't think he can call this, and I would play a big hand just like this.

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

Heh... point taken.

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I know you're aggressive and all that jazz but I think you're overrating how often JJ is going to just call off two straight PSBs with an ace on board (especially given the previous PSB before the ace hit). The lower you get on his spectrum of non-set pocket pairs, the less likely he is to call so I think that the chances of getting called by a worse hand are slim (in the case of KK/JJ) to none (in the case of 88 or 55).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is where I think I see a gap in your logic, from my perspective. My opponent has a brain, lets presume, and because of this shouldn't he realize that his calldown with JJ is the same calldown as with 55? I obviously am not value betting worse. You seem to think of it as a gradient, I think though that most opponents will lump all their hands that don't beat a value bet but beat a bluff in one group. There definitely is a slight gradient, but it's fairly insignificant IMO. Generally the tougher the player, the flatter this gradient.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree for the most part. I was actually being charitable to try listing some worse hands that might call you. I was basically thinking that JJ snaps off more missed pocket pair or A7 bluffs than does 55. For the most part I think JJ only calls here if the player is tilting/frustrated against you but JJ and 55 both call here very rarely.

[ QUOTE ]
That's fair. I think this river decision, isolated by itself is probably very close to neutral expected value.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, I actually think it's significantly -EV.

[ QUOTE ]
But as part of a bigger plan, I think it really helps my game. The more times I can fire big on the river like this, the easier time I have getting paid off with big hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a lot of people overplay this concept, and I wouldn't be surprised if you do. If this bet is largely -EV, you'll have to make up for it by getting called when you have a monster in the future. But how often is this the case? You get more marginal hands than monsters and if you generally play very aggressively on the river that means you're betting big with way more weak hands than strong hands-if you try skewing it more towards the big hands people will notice you haven't been betting the river that often and you lose the benefits you're trying to accrue.

But the only way for you to advertise your thin value bets (and thus get paid off) is to get them called which is normally going to be by a better hand OR to show it (which I don't think is often wise). So either you're wasting money very often for the occasional pay-off or you're giving away your hand too often.

Now, there are other ways this bet makes sense in the meta-game (namely people don't call the turn as lightly because they know you bet the river often, even if they don't know what), but I think from the perspective of getting called when you have a monster it's like saying "I'll give up $800 a few times but when I get a monster this guy'll pay me off $1100." It's not worth it to trick your opponents when you have monsters if it costs you money.

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

I think you misunderstood him; he meant that the vast majority of the times you are going to get called, it's going to be a by a better hand. Hence, a bluff rather than a value bet. I reckon you thought he meant that your bet is going to get perceived as a total bluff (or nuts) a large percentage of the time, which of course is of course would be the reason you would want to value bet it.

Re: No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot
 

No reads make it a little tough. As played PF and on flop I would definatly bet turn here as you say some people wouldn't I think that's a big flaw.

Once you get to the river and he checks I start to think what hands would raise early PF, check/call twice and then check again. It seems like there are plenty more hands that call and beat you than don't. A bet here is something I don't like for two reasons:

A) Your hand is good enough for showdown and as you have already said you bet for value not as a bluff. Very rarely if ever does your opponent fold a better hand here.

B) If villain did have a draw of some sort, he will fold river unless he decides to make an extremely ill-advised bluff.

I am very interested to hear what happened, along with what you would do if he had moved in. Yes I know he could almost never do this with less than A9 here, but do you ever start to realize some opponents think A LOT less than us? Hey, he could've misclicked, right?

With all this being said, I think he called and you lost to A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].