When the value of your set comes into question
 

This hand that just happened caused me to ask myself "Am I overplaying my pocket pairs in order to get sets, and am I overplaying the sets themselves" ? I really am not sure of my play here.

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
9 players
Converter


Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, MP1 raises, 3 folds, Hero calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Alright, cold calling with pocket 4s in late position. My reads on all these players are zilch, except for the fact that I assume they are the typical donks that frequent most limits. I really need PT or HUD....

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6.5SB, 3 players)
BB bets, MP1 calls, Hero raises, BB calls, MP1 folds.

Standard.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5.75BB, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BB Caps, Hero calls.

Yeesh. I guess I should be happy for the raise here, but the cap kinda put me off. I mean, he called the raise in the BB PF, didn't 3 bet, so QQ isn't really possible. I mean, I have to call anyway, so here tha river be...

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (13.75BB, 2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

As I pressed the call button I wondered two things: A) Did I just miss out on 1, possibly 2 extra bets, and B) the exact opposite, did I overplay my set and somehow minimize my loss at the end by simply calling down.

Results:
Final pot: 15.75BB

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

First of all, don't cold call with 44. You need implied odds to make playing these hands preflop worthwhile, and you don't get them when you pay two bets before seeing a flop.

And you flop top set on a drawless board. There's no way that I'm not raising all the way down. When I'm behind only 88 and QQ here (assuming that he's not psychic and capped the turn with A3), I'm willing to raise and cap the river.

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, MP1 raises, 3 folds, Hero calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Alright, cold calling with pocket 4s in late position. My reads on all these players are zilch, except for the fact that I assume they are the typical donks that frequent most limits. I really need PT or HUD....

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No. You just need to know that coldcalling is almost always wrong when you are the second person to enter the pot voluntarily.

The rest of the hand doesn't really matter because overplaying a set postflop on a non-flush board is rarely a major problem.

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

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First of all, don't cold call with 44.

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False.

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You need implied odds to make playing these hands preflop worthwhile,

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True.

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and you don't get them when you pay two bets before seeing a flop.

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False.

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

I think the three bet on the turn is standard. When he caps you can think about slowing down. Whether you do or not depends on reads. Against a player who is not very aggressive I play it like you. Against a more aggressive villian I raise the river.

As for preflop -- I don't think this is a good call. You need probably 2 cold callers to do this, or one previous (before the raiser) limper and a cold caller between you.

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

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No. You just need to know that coldcalling is almost always wrong when you are the second person to enter the pot voluntarily.



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[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]. I know. It is a nasty habit that I need to break. That it what I meant i guess by overplaying, I always try to play pocket pairs, ( for sometimes 2 bets....) so when/if I hit a set I get $$$$$. Also didn't see I was only the 2nd person to enter, different story with 5 callers in front or something

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

Aaron is right. Sometimes it is okay to coldcall a small pocker pair preflop. But this in not one of them.

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

Fine, let me clarify:

You don't get good implied odds when you're on the button and the only other person in the pot so far is the PFR. Cold calling is fine in the case when there are several other players committed to the pot already.

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

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First of all, don't cold call with 44.

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False.


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What?!

Care to elaborate Aaron? It seems like cold calling with low pairs in general will be a loser. Even in position. In a family pot your implied odds look better. But heads up it seems like this to me:

1 time you flop a set. You might the Villian to pay you 5 big bits on average. I think this is generous.

7.5 times you miss your set and must fold having paid 2 small bets (1bb).

(1*5) - (2 * 7.5) = 5 - 15 = -10 BB profit

You lose 1.2 bets per hand on average when you enter this. I know sometimes the villain will pay better, but sometimes he will also fold to the flop raise.

So I think Aaron's "False" is either not what he meant, or I don't get it.

Without a compelling read this is a PF fold.

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First of all, don't cold call with 44.

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False.

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You need implied odds to make playing these hands preflop worthwhile,

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True.

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and you don't get them when you pay two bets before seeing a flop.

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False.

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To get even with a set, you need to make 8.5 sb postflop when you see a flop right? 8.5:1 to flop a set, occasionally you win UI and occasionally you lose to a straight/flush/something else, pretty much a wash. If you play this same situation 9 times, you are going to check/fold the flop (probably) 8 times, and win a pot once.

If you are paying 2 bets each time preflop, this means you lose 16 bets the 8 times you check/fold the flop when you miss, so you need to win at least 16 sb the time you do flop the set.

Yes I realize these numbers are fudged, mostly because I don't like dealing with the half, but the concept remains the same.

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

Aaron is actually right. He is saying that the position that one should never cold calling 44 preflop is wrong.

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

the preflop debate in this thread is unneccesary and extremely nittish. the first guy who suggested folding preflop used some misleading terms. whatever. his advice as it pertains to this thread is great, and this is a very bad preflop call.

imo, this is a very easy river raise w/o a read.

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

My thoughts elaborated a little bit:

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First of all, don't cold call with 44.

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False.

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Coldcalling with 44 can be correct if the situation is right. Saying "don't coldcall with 44" is simply wrong. In the context of this hand, it was the correct advice. You should "never" coldcall 44 in this position (let's not talk about floating here).

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You need implied odds to make playing these hands preflop worthwhile,

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True.

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This is exactly why you play hands like 44 even though you only flop a set 1 in 9 times or so. You need implied odds. But implied odds come from lots of players or just having a very aggressive player.

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and you don't get them when you pay two bets before seeing a flop.

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False.

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You don't get them when you put two bets in preflop AND you're the only one putting in two bets preflop. If you've got 3 people voluntarily in the pot ahead of you, coldcalling will usually get you to a 8-9 SB pot paying 2 SB. So then you lose 2 SB 8 times and only need to get another 8 SB in the pot postflop when you *do* flop a set (well, pad it a little for when you get beat and call it 10 SB = 5 BB). This is a reasonable outcome when there are 5-6 people seeing the flop, especially if you have good relative position. People will see more turns when the pot is big on the flop, and that just gives you more money.

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

All,

I know. It was a bad PF call. In fact, in my OP I kind of hinted that it was crappy. Not really the issue here. I guess that there is no issue amongst any of you with going to the felt raising here on the river?

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

allow myself to quote myself,

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imo, this is a very easy river raise w/o a read.

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Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

[ QUOTE ]
allow myself to quote myself,

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imo, this is a very easy river raise w/o a read.

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Ohhhhh, see I assumed that when I asked that question, it didn't simply mean "What does Dyson think?" Because even though I know that is all that matters, I kinda wanted other's opinions. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

villain looks to have 88, 22 or Q8 if his play makes any sense. Could be 8sXs or QQ.

"My reads on all these players are zilch, except for the fact that I assume they are the typical donks"


If there is ever a time to err towards aggression might as well be when you flop a set. There are more hands that you beat that he will cap w/ than that beat you.

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

Grunch:

I think the turn 3-bet is correct but i would be a little worried after the villain capped. But i think you played this hand perfectly with the call on the river. My guess is that if you are beat he held pocket eights.

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

*G*

Let's review: you called the raise with 44 in the hopes of flopping a set, then you flopped a set on an uncoordinated board. Is this "Be careful what you wish for"?

Since QQ is an unlikely holding, in our worst case, the Turn cap could mean he slowplayed a set of 8's. Either way, you must bet as the Q in no way helped any reasonable hand; ideally he's got Q8s.

None of this is really important or relevant; you have a tremendously strong hand and if you lose to a set over a set, just move on.

If you don't push a set on a board like this, when will you?

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

i raise this river.

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

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(1*5) - (2 * 7.5) = 5 - 15 = -10 BB profit

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FWIW, this math is wrong. it should be -2.5 BB

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

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imo, this is a very easy river raise w/o a read.

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Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

I'd like to revisit the subject of playing this hand in the first place.

With our position, we are in a good spot to reraise. That's right, we can make it 3 bets to the blinds. We can now either chase out the player(s) who might want to see a flop for just one more small bet and make it heads up with a made (albeit vulnerable) hand, or find out if they really have a playable hand and, in the process better define the PFR's hand. A big pair will definitely call or raise. Big broadways will call. However, a raise definitely ties us to the flop.

Given this scenario, with this flop, I don't see what else you can do but to bet/raise. The raise should drive out the big broadways, making the remaining streets easier to play. You are only behind to 88. You can fold to any reraise before getting to the more expensive streets.

So, am I an idiot or what?

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to revisit the subject of playing this hand in the first place.

With our position, we are in a good spot to reraise. That's right, we can make it 3 bets to the blinds. We can now either chase out the player(s) who might want to see a flop for just one more small bet and make it heads up with a made (albeit vulnerable) hand, or find out if they really have a playable hand and, in the process better define the PFR's hand. A big pair will definitely call or raise. Big broadways will call. However, a raise definitely ties us to the flop.

Given this scenario, with this flop, I don't see what else you can do but to bet/raise. The raise should drive out the big broadways, making the remaining streets easier to play. You are only behind to 88. You can fold to any reraise before getting to the more expensive streets.

So, am I an idiot or what?

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I'll just say one thing in response: if you agree that one needs great implied odds to make playing pocket fours in a raised hand +ev, why on earth would you want to 3-bet preflop?

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

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I'll just say one thing in response: if you agree that one needs great implied odds to make playing pocket fours in a raised hand +ev, why on earth would you want to 3-bet preflop?

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I didn't say that you did need great implied odds. I am only saying that if you wanted to play and win this hand under this circumstance, this may be a way to do it.

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to revisit the subject of playing this hand in the first place.

With our position, we are in a good spot to reraise. That's right, we can make it 3 bets to the blinds. We can now either chase out the player(s) who might want to see a flop for just one more small bet and make it heads up with a made (albeit vulnerable) hand, or find out if they really have a playable hand and, in the process better define the PFR's hand. A big pair will definitely call or raise. Big broadways will call. However, a raise definitely ties us to the flop.

Given this scenario, with this flop, I don't see what else you can do but to bet/raise. The raise should drive out the big broadways, making the remaining streets easier to play. You are only behind to 88. You can fold to any reraise before getting to the more expensive streets.

So, am I an idiot or what?

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You're right that if you were going to play this hand, 3-betting preflop is the superior way of doing it. Doing this against weak-tight players isn't bad. But you must realize that you're throwing in 3-5 SB to win a pot that's not that much bigger. You need to come away a winner about 50% of the time for this to be profitable. Considering that villain is going to hit a pair and call you down a third of the time, and perhaps another 20% of the time he has a pocket pair bigger than yours, this play is looking less and less favorable.

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to revisit the subject of playing this hand in the first place.

With our position, we are in a good spot to reraise. That's right, we can make it 3 bets to the blinds. We can now either chase out the player(s) who might want to see a flop for just one more small bet and make it heads up with a made (albeit vulnerable) hand, or find out if they really have a playable hand and, in the process better define the PFR's hand. A big pair will definitely call or raise. Big broadways will call. However, a raise definitely ties us to the flop.

Given this scenario, with this flop, I don't see what else you can do but to bet/raise. The raise should drive out the big broadways, making the remaining streets easier to play. You are only behind to 88. You can fold to any reraise before getting to the more expensive streets.

So, am I an idiot or what?

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You're right that if you were going to play this hand, 3-betting preflop is the superior way of doing it. Doing this against weak-tight players isn't bad. But you must realize that you're throwing in 3-5 SB to win a pot that's not that much bigger. You need to come away a winner about 50% of the time for this to be profitable. Considering that villain is going to hit a pair and call you down a third of the time, and perhaps another 20% of the time he has a pocket pair bigger than yours, this play is looking less and less favorable.

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Agreed. I only thought of this today after thinking about this since last night (I'm not a quick thinker). I'm only offering an alternative line to the call/fold. Personally, I think I'd fold since I really don't have the roll to try this out over a large enough sample size.

Anybody want to stove this vs say AK, AQ, AJ?

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

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First of all, don't cold call <u>in this spot</u> with 44. You need implied odds to make playing these hands preflop worthwhile, and you don't get them when you pay two bets before seeing a flop.

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With 2-5 callers before me, I'd cold-call 44 in a heartbeat.

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

You'd also probably (depending on stack size) be correct to reraise if this was no limit. Again that is a matter of implied odds. Big stacks in no-limit mean a good chance of doubling up if you hit a set (big implied odds). Another way of saying pf decisions with hands like this depend on implied odds (I know this has been beat to death here already).

Re: When the value of your set comes into question
 

[ QUOTE ]
You'd also probably (depending on stack size) be correct to reraise if this was no limit. Again that is a matter of implied odds. Big stacks in no-limit mean a good chance of doubling up if you hit a set (big implied odds). Another way of saying pf decisions with hands like this depend on implied odds (I know this has been beat to death here already).

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I'm not much a NL player, but this doesn't make sense to me. You can coldcall in NL because the implied odds are gigantic relative to the preflop investment. By re-raising preflop, you're committing a bunch of money with a hand that isn't so spectacular. And you're rarely playing in situations with stacks so deep that you can re-raise preflop and still have enough implied odds when you hit a set to double up (in a tournament, anyway).

Quick math: First raise = 3x BB. Your re-raise = 7-8x BB. To get enough implied odds, you need to make up about 8-10 times your initial preflop investment in postflop play. So you're looking for stacks that are about 60-80 BB deep for this play when chasing implied odds. By coldcalling, you only need to pick up about 30 BB, which is big, but not nearly as big as a re-raise would require.

Now if you were playing postflop poker well, you can coldcall with the intent of raising a range of flops to try to push out the raiser (given some knowledge of how he plays and so forth). But I'd just muck this hand in NL from the button after the open-raise.