Reasonable play? Or Ridiculous?
 

Trying to determine if I made the correct play. Button has been tight and aggressive. Comments appreciated.

Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
7 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, MP1 calls $2, CO folds, Button raises to $9, SB folds, Hero calls $7, MP1 folds.

I did not raise here as my Aces are not particularly strong (I have button covered, but his stack is not short). The hand is certainly worth taking a flop with, but I want to be able to dump it if it comes down bad.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero checks, Button bets $19.95, Hero raises to $79.8, Button calls $59.85.

Thinking the button might have the other 2 Aces and is making a continuation bet, I checkraise w/ top 2 on this fairly coordinated board. Reasonable? or Ridiculous? Should I have led out instead, or is this a check/fold since I have little chance of improvement (I don't think a check/call here would be a good move)? I interpret the buttons' call as a draw of some sort (more likely str8 since I have the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]). At this point I plan on potting the turn if a relatively safe card hits.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($180.6, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button is all-in $114.24, Hero folds.

Bad turn card. Button almost certainly has a lo and is freerolling for hi (If I'm not beat already).

So where did I screw up?

Re: Reasonable play? Or Ridiculous?
 

Re-raise the PF. Can you ask for a better situation? How much more do you have behind on the turn? I think you played this fine assuming you still had a decent amount of money behind.

Re: Reasonable play? Or Ridiculous?
 

Never fold this turn. Ever.

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Bad turn card. Button almost certainly has a lo and is freerolling for hi (If I'm not beat already).

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Yes, but there's $180 in the pot. $180!!! You're really not in trouble against anything except A25 or A2 + set.

You're risking $114 to win $90. If there's a greater than 56% chance you'll win high (or low) on the river, you're giving money away by folding. I think your odds are much better than that, given the pattern of aggression shown by button on all streets.

Re: Reasonable play? Or Ridiculous?
 

i think a25 or a57 or something to that nature is a very good chance. You have no low or real chance at the low. Im just saying that you are risking $114 to win $90 at best and that is only 56% of the time as you said. So you are risking $114 to win an EV of $50. So your overall EV is [(180+114+114)/2](.56) - (180+114+114)(.44) = 114.24-179.52 = - $65.28 . Therefore you should fold this

Re: Reasonable play? Or Ridiculous?
 

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i think a25 or a57 or something to that nature is a very good chance. You have no low or real chance at the low. Im just saying that you are risking $114 to win $90 at best and that is only 56% of the time as you said. So you are risking $114 to win an EV of $50. So your overall EV is [(180+114+114)/2](.56) - (180+114+114)(.44) = 114.24-179.52 = - $65.28 . Therefore you should fold this

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I don't follow your reasoning.

Re: Reasonable play? Or Ridiculous?
 

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i think a25 or a57 or something to that nature is a very good chance. You have no low or real chance at the low. Im just saying that you are risking $114 to win $90 at best and that is only 56% of the time as you said. So you are risking $114 to win an EV of $50. So your overall EV is [(180+114+114)/2](.56) - (180+114+114)(.44) = 114.24-179.52 = - $65.28 . Therefore you should fold this

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I don't follow your reasoning.

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Neither do I. You can knock it down to [(180+144+144)/2]*(.56 - .44). Which doesn't mean anything at all, this doesn't account for the range of his hands or anything.

Re: Reasonable play? Or Ridiculous?
 

Okay ... you said there is a 56% chance of getting 1/2 the pot, correct? There is 180 in the pot now. Villian went all in for $114 so you have to call that. You are calling $114 to win half of the cumulative pot with a chance of .56. For the situation to have an EV = 0 the probability of winning half the pot has to be at least 66% to win 1/2 the pot.

Re: Reasonable play? Or Ridiculous?
 

First of all:

EV = (How much you can win)*(probability of winning)- (How much you can lose)*(probability of losing)

Let the probability of winning be p. The breakeven point is:

0 = (90)(p) - (114)(1-p)
114 = 204p
p = 114/204 = 55.88% ~=56%

This is how often we need to win half the pot to make this call profitable.

I said:

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You're risking $114 to win $90. If there's a greater than 56% chance you'll win high (or low) on the river, you're giving money away by folding.

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In other words, IF you think you can pick up half the pot more than 56% of the time, you should be calling. Is that any clearer?

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OK, next step: The hand range of the opponent. Tight aggressive villain pot raised the button. This usually indicates a decent hand like A2xx, AA, maybe A-3/4? maybe four high cards, maybe with an overpair. Seems like a reasonable hand range.

Next step: Ours odds on the turn. Villain needs a set or a straight to have us in trouble. Against any other hand, including A2 *with* a flush draw, we have odds to correctly call because of the size of the pot. We're crushing AAxx except AA5 and AA2, and we have odds to call against those as well. If villain doesn't have a decent low, or just an A2 low without backup, we have counterfeit outs to 3/4 as well.

What does this all mean? There are very few hands that have us crushed. There are however, a lot of hands that would play the way Villain has, which we either beat of have quite profitable odds to correctly call.

56% is the cutoff. I think we have easily have it against his hand range. This is a judgement call. What hand range do you put him on, taking all streets into consideration?

Re: Reasonable play? Or Ridiculous?
 

I don't know PLO well, but if you're raising $60 (1/3 of effective stacks) with the plan to check/fold 20+ turn cards if called, there is something wrong with the hand.

Re: Reasonable play? Or Ridiculous?
 

i guess my math is off here. I'm just saying that if you can put his hand range on something that you have a greater than 56% chance of winning @ least half the pot then u can make this call. But if botton has been TAGish then this seems like he would have A23+FD on flop if not A235 or something to that extent, does it not?

Re: Reasonable play? Or Ridiculous?
 

If he has A23 + flush draw you should be calling!!!

Also, I could easily imagine a TAG plaing an AA/KK + flush draw or A2 + pair like this too. At least often enough to offset the straight or low+set.

Re: Reasonable play? Or Ridiculous?
 

Thanks for the responses. Gave me a lot to ponder. In retrospect folding the turn seems to be -EV, which is all I'm really concerned about longterm. When presented with a similar scenario in the future I'll give serious consideration to repotting it preflop. That would have made the math in this situation a no brainer. Thanks again.

Re: Reasonable play? Or Ridiculous?
 

I don't call preflop with AAJ6 especially with unsuited aces. Maybe I play too tight but it seems incredibly hard to scoop. I don't care for the flop either , two pair with no low draw on that board is crap imo. you are up against a straight and flush draw and no low draw except for runner runner live ace. To answer your question of "where did I screw up?" I would say calling preflop and it's downhill from there. just my opinion...booger

Re: Reasonable play? Or Ridiculous?
 

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I don't call preflop with AAJ6 especially with unsuited aces. Maybe I play too tight but it seems incredibly hard to scoop. I don't care for the flop either , two pair with no low draw on that board is crap imo. you are up against a straight and flush draw and no low draw except for runner runner live ace. To answer your question of "where did I screw up?" I would say calling preflop and it's downhill from there. just my opinion...booger

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http://orlyowl.com/orly.jpg

Re: Reasonable play? Or Ridiculous?
 

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Never fold this turn. Ever.
You're really not in trouble against anything except A25 or A2 + set.

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Nope. Try again.

-Ergodicity will get you in the end

Re: Reasonable play? Or Ridiculous?
 

You make a pretty big error in analysis here, Phil.

For starters, having 56% chance to win is only in aggregate for all weighted hands. He only needs to have a set or straight a very small % of the time to have you [censored], since when you have odds you generally barely have odds, but when you don't you are completely hosed.

Looks like Ergodicity may be visiting you sooner than most, my friend,

Re: Reasonable play? Or Ridiculous?
 

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I don't know PLO well, but if you're raising $60 (1/3 of effective stacks) with the plan to check/fold 20+ turn cards if called, there is something wrong with the hand.

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Re: Reasonable play? Or Ridiculous?
 

Ergo, no.

He needs to win half of the pot 56% of the time on the river to show a profit. Against a bare A2 he has >90% chance of winning the river. Against A2+ flush draw, he has >75% chance of winning the river. In addition, he has 3 counterfeit outs for a 3/4 in some cases.

The concepts above have obviously confused you, so we'll look at it the normal way, in terms of whole pot equity.

There is $294 in the pot, Hero has to call $114. Therefore he needs a minimum of 114/(114+294) = 28% equity.

Let's have a look how he stacks up against villain's possible holdings. Losing situations are in red, winning in green:

Absolute worst case scenario, a straight:

Js 6s Ac Ad <font color="red">0.050</font>
As 5c 3d 2d 0.950

Second worst: A set + nut low:

Js 6s Ac Ad <font color="red">0.081</font>
As 4s 4c 2h 0.919

More realistic: A2 + bottom two pair

Js 6s Ac Ad <font color="green">0.419</font>
As 4c 3d 2h 0.581

A2 + a pair + a flush draw:

Js 6s Ac Ad <font color="green">0.331</font>
As Kd 3d 2h 0.669


Js 6s Ac Ad <font color="green">0.369</font>
As Kc Kd 2d 0.631

A2 + top and bottom pair + flush draw

Js 6s Ac Ad <font color="green">0.356</font>
As Jd 3d 2h 0.644

Without the flush draw:

Js 6s Ac Ad <font color="green">0.444</font>
As 3s Jd 2h 0.556

AA with a diamond draw and weak low:

Js 6s Ac Ad <font color="green">0.550</font>
As Kd 8d Ah 0.450

AA with a diamond draw and busted low:

Js 6s Ac Ad <font color="green">0.613</font>
As Kd 3d Ah 0.388

A straight draw + flush draw + low draw + 2 pair (non A2)

Js 6s Ac Ad <font color="green">0.306</font>
As 4s 5d 3d 0.694

Here's what we know about the other guy:

1. He's a tag and he's on the button. His pot raising range is quite wide but is still mostly decent hands.
2. He pot bet the flop but just called the check raise with position
3. He pushed the turn when checked to.
4. We saw the flop HEADS UP. This is very important in assigning a hand range!!

The most logical hands given this action are some kind of low draw with maybe a high/high draw. A TAG with a wrap low draw would push this flop imo. I find it hard to believe a low draw + set wouldn't push this flop also.

So, what do you think his hand range is? I challenge you to assign a % to each of the above scenarios. In my humble opinion he could very easily have any of the above hands, and we have quite profitable equity against most of them.

Ergo, we should call, and it's not close.