stars 2/4
 

hand is played by a friend of mine, he's 1 of the most winning 2/4 players @ stars- so villain probably knows him; however he doesnt have much info on villain.

There was a previous hand where hero raised button to 12, villain reraised small (30ish), and hero called w/ 78s. Flop A72 c/c, turn 8, sb chks, hero ~pots, villain c/rs, hero pushes villain calls. AK no good for a stack.

Villains on about 3 of hero's tables when this hand comes up.

villain (925)
hero (covers)

hero raises to 12 w/ Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], villain reraises to 34 from SB.

(70$) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
villain pots, hero calls

(210$) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] t [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
villain checks, hero bets 140, villain calls.

(490$) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] t [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
villain checks... HERO??

Re: stars 2/4
 

If you bet here is it for value or a bluff?

Re: stars 2/4
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you bet here is it for value or a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

could be either.

Re: stars 2/4
 

Ok this is my hand, i showed it to Durrrr and made him post it b/c he is my bitch. Anyway two things to clear up: the hand is 6max and I raised utg with QQ, and also in the previous hand we played i was OOP and the action went check/check on the flop, turn i lead for 48 he raises to 144 i shove (we both started the hand with 400).

Re: stars 2/4
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you bet here is it for value or a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a clear check.

I don't know if I'm ahead or being trapped. When I'm not sure, a check behind seems prudent. I don't see a bet folding KK/AA. I don't see many worse hands calling.

Re: stars 2/4
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you bet here is it for value or a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

could be either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Until we figure out what it is, I'm sure not betting. His range should be like AA-TT or something, right? Barring additional information, betting just looks like a way to boost variance. And possibly -EV.

Re: stars 2/4
 

I agree. I'd rather miss out on a very very small bit of potential value in a big pot than either value bet his better marginal hand for him or give myself a chance to lose the pot by folding the winner. I don't try to bluff people off of AA/KK (it doesn't work) and I don't think you have a +EV vb here.

Re: stars 2/4
 

wow, it would be such a weird way to play AA/KK for him. and it would take balls to try to checkraise the river if he hit a two-outer on turn/river. i don't know if it's wishful thinking but it really looks like we have him beat and there's a great chance he'd pay off with like JJ. if value were the only thing on our minds here, i think i'd bet, but it sure is slim and the fact that we would absolutely LOVE to see his hole cards here makes it a check in my opinion.

Re: stars 2/4
 

I didn't see the T on the turn.

And how is this a weird way to play AA/KK?

Re: stars 2/4
 

I agree. I understand Thwworstplayer's arguments but man, just really doesn't feel like he'd play AA/KK that way. I think a value bet is +EV, though thin. I'm curious as to the results as I'm a results-oriented fish.

Re: stars 2/4
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree. I understand Thwworstplayer's arguments but man, just really doesn't feel like he'd play AA/KK that way. I think a value bet is +EV, though thin. I'm curious as to the results as I'm a results-oriented fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Besides JJ, what worse hands are calling? A bet isn't +EV if no better hands fold and no worse ones call even if you're almost positive you have the best hand.

Re: stars 2/4
 

Yeah, and if JJ calls, and he has JJ or a folding hand the vast majority of the time, then it's +EV.

Re: stars 2/4
 

seems like the best two logical plays are either all in or 1/2-3/4 pot value bet.

Re: stars 2/4
 

And the reason he can't have AA/KK is........

Re: stars 2/4
 

Anyone think it could be a good spot to check-back on the turn ? If I'm villain with AA-KK, I'm checking this turn often to let smaller overpairs or random junk put more money in the pot.

Re: stars 2/4
 

Oh, sorry, didn't see your other post about why it would be weird for him to have AA/KK. My reasoning is that he has history with hero and has a sense for how he plays. When hero calls the flop, villain should know he already has a made hand. It's hard to believe that villain would not value bet the turn, but check/calling to induce a bet is sensible. But I would expect AA/KK to donk the river for value in that case. Another check just doesn't seem like the strength of an AA/KK, but you would know better than I how plausible it is for villain to play it like this. If I had AA/KK here, I would be donking the river if I checked the turn about 100%.

Re: stars 2/4
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, and if JJ calls, and he has JJ or a folding hand the vast majority of the time, then it's +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't accurate. The worse hands that will fold to a bet do not affect the EV of the bet. The EV of the bet only involves the percentage of the time a better hand folds and the percentage of the time a worse hand calls.

Re: stars 2/4
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone think it could be a good spot to check-back on the turn ? If I'm villain with AA-KK, I'm checking this turn often to let smaller overpairs or random junk put more money in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like giving AK a chance to catch for free. I'd probably bet half pot on the turn and take a free showdown. That money almost certainly is going in the pot before showdown, so I'd rather do it on the turn than the river.

Re: stars 2/4
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, and if JJ calls, and he has JJ or a folding hand the vast majority of the time, then it's +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't accurate. The worse hands that will fold to a bet do not affect the EV of the bet. The EV of the bet only involves the percentage of the time a better hand folds and the percentage of the time a worse hand calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I was saying is that I think he folds or calls with worse much higher than the % he has AA/KK/TT. In my mind at the time I was envisioning 90% he has JJ/fold and 10% better, so I know he'll call that JJ more than he'll have AA/KK/TT, I was thinking he has JJ 66%, folds 24%, owns 10%.

But now that I read over the thread, I could see TT being sneaky like that. Checking is certainly safest and probably the correct option.

Re: stars 2/4
 

im not going to post results yet, but my feeling on the river was the only hand i could get value from was JJ. Based on his turn action i felt there was a good chance he had 88-QQ although AA and KK are possible especially since we are so deep. There does remain the fact that i know nothing about villain so he could pay off with a small pocketpair or AK (although unlikely.) Also i disagree with checking the turn b/c AK is very likely after his turn check (but much less after his call) and i dont want to give him a free card. lemme just add that TT and 99 scared me on the river and personally i think there is a good chance i would try to c/r the river with those holdings. Also if i bet what is a good amount?

Re: stars 2/4
 

I also agree tht TT and 99 scare me b/c they are most likely to play it how it played up to the point we're discussing. I could see TT/99 going for a river c/r combined with the turn action, and I would be more afraid of that than AA/KK. Still, it does make sense that if you are deep, AA/KK could play that way.

If you did decide to value bet, my first thought was $200, but that's just my first thought and I'm not the value bet king. I would imagine that it should be in the 150-200 range.

Re: stars 2/4
 

if you bet, i like all in.

Re: stars 2/4
 

[ QUOTE ]
if you bet, i like all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now THAT'S -EV.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: stars 2/4
 

thing is, it doesn't look like AA/KK/set. sure it could be, and it will be X% of the time, but you can't really say that AA, KK, JJ, etc has an equal distribution of percentage in his range when he takes this line. and in my opinion JJ makes up a mmmuch higher % than AA/KK does here. i still think a check is prudent though, because the information you gain by seeing what in gods name he's really up to makes up for the potential loss of EV by making him fold or checkraise.

Re: stars 2/4
 

[ QUOTE ]
if you bet, i like all in.

[/ QUOTE ]
if im betting here, its allin baby, and that is def a bluff.

Re: stars 2/4
 

it's 2 way, baby!

Re: stars 2/4
 

so you're pretty much convinced you're beat?

Re: stars 2/4
 

Flawless, are you saying that we're beat here?

Re: stars 2/4
 

He's saying its a bluff because he expects to get called by a worse hand never but better hands (like AA/KK) have a good chance of folding.

Re: stars 2/4
 

[ QUOTE ]
Flawless, are you saying that we're beat here?

[/ QUOTE ]naw, we could be good, but were def an underdog... sb prob has KK.

Re: stars 2/4
 

If you don't mind, what is your opinion of how he played his KK? How out of the ordinary is it? Not really? Kinda? A little bit but certainly plausible? A lot but he still probably has it?

Re: stars 2/4
 

I like hero's turn bet.

Re: stars 2/4
 

Default is to check behind. If you feel he can be moved off of a better hand, then push. Do not value bet. FWIW I don't generally try to move people off KK or AA in reraised pots at $2/4, especially if he is gunning for you after stacking him.

Fin

Re: stars 2/4
 

I don't understand why AA/kk does not valuebet the river themselves.

Re: stars 2/4
 

to let this maniac keep bluffing?

Re: stars 2/4
 

[ QUOTE ]
to let this maniac keep bluffing?

[/ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]



Ok i might as well post results. River felt too thin and I figured the only hand he pays off with is JJ. I checked behind and he did indeed have JJ.

Re: stars 2/4
 

Ha! I kneeeeeeew it! I'm the results-oriented man!

I never used to believe in "feel" until I started NL cash games, but this hand "felt" like JJ all the way, baby.

I know, I know. I'll be posting the same hand where villain had KK by tomorrow [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Re: stars 2/4
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if you bet, i like all in.

[/ QUOTE ]
if im betting here, its allin baby, and that is def a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

when i saw this hand this was the 1st thing i thought of. Then i figured that it might not be a good bet as people do call EveRyThinG. Also i dont mind a bet of 200ish to get value, and i dont think i liked the check (this was all b4 ads told me the results), but its definitely v close.

Re: stars 2/4
 

I think this is a definite check behind. We're ahead of JJ which I think is unlikely to pay off unless he's on tilt. I think villian's most likely holding is 1010, but possibly AA/KK.

edit: he has JJ, bet for value. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: stars 2/4
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a definite check behind. We're ahead of JJ which I think is unlikely to pay off unless he's on tilt. I think villian's most likely holding is 1010, but possibly AA/KK.

edit: he has JJ, bet for value. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

did u not see the AK stackoff? JJ isnt folding here that isnt a worry (i'd assume). I think its ridiculously more likely that he pays off w/ Ahi or worse than that he folds JJ (assuming about a 200ish bet).