Life Time Running Bad
 

I have been playing poker for three years now. I play nl, limit, omaha, tripple draw and stud. In every single game I play, I run terribly bad. Actually, I picked up the other poker games besides limit hold em becuase I ran so bad in it.

I have spent hours and hours studying, mining tracker and working on my game. I play about 20,000 hands a month and consider myself a very strong player. However, I am not a winning player. I consistanty run into 2/3 outers hand after hand. I keep telling myself that as long as I play solid I should be beating these games, but this just isn't the case.

The only reason that I am not a losing player is becuase of bonuses and rakeback. However, I am starting to lose interest in this game of poker that has treated me so poorly.

Is it possible to run bad forever?

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

I'm no expert but I can't see how it could. Whenever I, as Harrington pointed out, you only notice the bad rather than good luck, I go to PT and check out the amount of quads I've had.

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

No offense, but looking at some of your posts, you're not that good of a player. You're probably a winner, but a small one. Your first few hands you probably ran much better than average (which is hard to notice). Now you are running worse than average (which is easy to notice).

I would seriously consider playing less hands, and making time to play just a single table a lot. Work on improving your game by posting in the strategy forums, read other posts, comment on other hands, etc. If you're playing 30% of your hands, you already have a significant leak, and that's in an "easy" area of the game (preflop) compared to the much more difficult area to master (postflop).

The main theme of your posts seems to me that you concentrate too much on running bad (which happens but you can't control it) and not enough on playing bad (which happens but you can improve from these mistakes).

Good luck.

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

You only run bad consistently when you aren't thinking correctly about the game. Some people form bad poker habbits that keep them from winning, and they are never able to identify them and/or correct them.

I would suggest keeping a notepad next to your computer (if you play online) and write down every bad poker habbit you might have: i.e., I play too many hands; I get too excited about high pocket pairs and can't lay them down on flop; I know that I'm beat, but can't seem to fold; I have a hard time reading the texture of the board; i play above my BR and put unhealthy pressure on my game, etc.

When you've written down some bad habbits, take some time away from the table to think and reflect on them. When all is said and done, you will either improve, or you may want to decide that you are just not going to be a winning player and you should either quit, or play purely recreationally with the knowledge that you will only be break-even or losing.

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

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I have spent hours and hours studying, mining tracker and working on my game. I play about 20,000 hands a month and consider myself a very strong player. However, I am not a winning player.



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3 years of losing at 20k hands/month does not make you a very strong player. Time to be honest with yourself. Perhaps the game isn't for you.

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

Also, I've noticed that all of your posts are about how bad you've run and they go back for a month or more. What's up with that?

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

I do not get too exited about pocket pairs, I can lay down hands to a 3 bet on the river, I can fold when I am beat, I can read the board very well and I most certainly do not play above my bankroll; I just moved down this month. So leaves "I play too many hands," where 30 vpip is considered too many....

First of all, I have read posts where winning (high limit) players are put in 50 and even 60 percent voluntary. If for meta game purposes is besides the point. The point being that 30 vpip may seem high to some and low to other.

The main flaw in my game is bad luck and running bad. At times, far and few these days, I "tilt" because someone hit a one outer on me. However this is not common as I have learned how to control it.

I have not learned how to run good however, and this is why I am not that great of a player. I don't focus only on the bad and I have maybe one "good" day a month where they don't hit with junk against my top set or flopped flush to runner runner boat. So maybe I am playing scared now, but I just don't see this in my play. What I see is me always losing as the favorite.

I study study study but it makes no difference because when I hit the table I get sucked out on, period! I have tried different sites to no avail. I have tried different games to no avail. I have tried live to no avail. I just plain run bad all the time.

So, in theory is it possible to be doomed to lose by the cards even if you are playing what is considered winning poker?

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

Eventually we're all dealt equal proportions of good and bad hands. What seperates winning players from losing players is how they play those hands.

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

3 years at 20k hands/month= 720k hands. You're a losing player not counting bonuses and rakeback. Its not just bad luck and running bad. You are over estimating your skill level. The fact that you say you have "not learned to run good and that is why I am not that great of a player" says it all.

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

No one wants to think its not possible to run bad no matter what?

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

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Is it possible to run bad forever?

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NO!

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

I cant see any reason why a certain highly improbably anomoly couldnt exist. For instance some people get diseases that only 1 in a million can get. this is just very bad luck. you could have just been unlucky for a while. a very long while but at least you dont have an incurable disease. the one thing going for you is that random events dont have memory, so unfortunately you wont now get 750k of good luck but you know that whatever happens it will be fair. Some people are extremely lucky they start at .25/.50 and 6 months later are playing 5/10, it just happens, not cause their good, maybe their not even winning players strategy wise but just get lucky and learn as they go. My advice is to stick with it and never give up, unless you dont enjoy it, but Ive found that even at my lowest moments I can still be surprised when things start going my way and then continue to go my way, all the way from .25/.50 up to 5/10. So try the lower limits, the players are so weak that you might be able to learn how to run good and then translate that up to a game that is more meaningful to you.

best of luck

THE Fonzzz

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

I'm guessing you haven't even played enough hands in the last 3 years to reach the "longrun"

I KNOW it\'s possible to be running bad for a lifetime!
 

That's why you should ignore the advice from successful players, and start with your own handicaps.

These were mine:

1) I'm a bad player.
2) Murphy's law is in full effect.

As for the former, we simply have to limit the subjectivety in the game. For me, that meant sticking to NL ... with a shortstack.

As for the latter, accepting the fact that suckouts are going to happen more frequently against me ... how can I play in such a way to minimize someone capitalizing on them against me? (see above)

For the last 20,000 hands, I'm consistently winning. For the first time ever.

That all said, I'm now curious about pure nut-peddling strategies. Hey, we all have our limitations ... and playing solid poker is losing poker for me.

But I tend to profit from abusing the nature of NL.

Good luck.
Z.

(ps But yah, all that said and done, it's entirely possible you are the one in million that will always lose no matter what. Improbable, but entirely possible. And in an infinite universe, with infinite worlds, and infinite realms, there's a lot of you out there. Sh!t happens.)

Re: I KNOW it\'s possible to be running bad for a lifetime!
 

jesusson, you honestly sound like a losing poker player.

30% VPIP might be fine for an expert player who can play postflop, but if you cannot properly play postflop, then this leads me to believe that you're spewing chips here.

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

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First of all, I have read posts where winning (high limit) players are put in 50 and even 60 percent voluntary. If for meta game purposes is besides the point. The point being that 30 vpip may seem high to some and low to other.

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No winning player plays 50% of his hands in a 6-handed game. Those high VPIPs come from 2-3 handed games. Playing 30% before the flop is fine for good players; these players generally have 30/22 PF stats, not 30/15. You are either cold-calling too many raises or open-limping too often.

Blah, folding to river 3-bets is not a key for winning low limit HE. In fact almost all hands where you raise the river you should be willing to call a 3-bet. People are supposed to hit their few outers every so often. In one previous post you mentioned about winning 4 BB/100 over a 50K sample I believe -- this is runnning incredibly hot, but you don't seem to even acknowledge this.

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So, in theory is it possible to be doomed to lose by the cards even if you are playing what is considered winning poker?

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Yes, theoretically it is possible to run bad for any finite number of hands. As that number gets larger, the likelihood that losing is the result of running bad goes down and the likelihood that you have leaks in your game goes up. Winning play will always win in the long run, but that long run can be very long.

But I will reiterate that based on your posts, your approach to HE suggests to me that you are a small winner at best in the games you are playing, and thus you must expect to have long stretches of losing/breakeven results when you run bad unless you improve at the game.

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

I can tell you a story about one of my friends. He had a really nice start on his poker career. He started out winning big compared to the buyin. But then he started loosing all the money he had won over the next 3-4 month. When he thought he had lost his last penny, he found out that he had actually played his bonus free. 100$.

From that point he gave a last shot. he said to himself this was like starting out again. he delete his pokertracker database and started it all out again. His mind was free, not thinking of loosing, looking on red numbers. He was winning again.

Now hes doing really well

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

It's possible to run bad for an entire lifetime: It's very unlikly to run bad for an entire lifetime.

If I were in your shoes (I'm assuming you have a regular job) -- I'd do down to 2/4 HE limit full ring and play ABC poker. That is, quite simply, to not play s.c. with less than 4 players already in, to not cold call with AQ or worse, to not cold call with pp, only 3-bet with TT-AA & AK, to never bluff, to never fold top pair for one more bet, to never fold top pair to a turn donk or c/r, and to only play about the top 15% and to raise about 10% of your hands. I'd also only play 4 tables at once & post 1-2 hands a night.

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

Wow, you have all been really helpfull and I thank you. I hit a royal flush last night after losing 100bb in about 500 hands so maybe I have a little "luck" in me...

I am going to start a new poker tracker database and go from there. The main things I will focus on are playing less hands, possibly full ring (although boring and slow to me), and working on skills rather than results.

I think keeping a running post about my progress may be helpful. I'm not sure where to post this since I play many forms of this wonderful game (trying to please the poker gods). Any suggestions?

Also, I think it might be fun to play any of you; name your game and stakes (bankroll dependent of course) and I'm all for it. This way it will be easy to see if "I always run bad". I may look into getting a coach as well.

If there is a way to counter this running bad theme, I will try it. Thanks again.

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

Every play can run bad for a very long time; except Ivey and it just hasn't hit him yet.

Good cards

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

try this:
21% vip at 6max
and
14% vip at full ring

only play at tables with at least one huge fish. 60+ vip.
Don't play 6 max below 2/4 because the rake is very high.

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

jeesus 30 vpip and this guy is wondering...

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

i agree

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

Sure, I want to give you the benefit of thr doubt but -

"My biggest flaw is running bad and bad luck"

Do you realize that this is the exact attitude that long term losing players have that allow the winning players to consistently take thier money ?

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

From the other posts, break down the possibilities and try to think of which one(s) are more likely to apply to you:

1. You aren't as good as you think you are.

2. Murphy's Law. Yeah...if it's possible, it'll happen to someone eventually. Is it likely? Yeah, there's a lot of luck in poker...but that tends to be short-run.

3. You're sample is too small for it to be considered the long run, but if you've played 20k hands per month for the last 3 years... Sorry.

4. Poker is rigged. I like this one best!

5. Combination of #'s 1-4. No, I like this one best!!

It's just not too likely to "run bad" for a lifetime although it is possible. It's also possible to win the lottery, but that's also not too likely to happen to most people..otherwise I'd be waiting in line for my next ticket.

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

I have played stretches of 30,000 hands with 21 vpip and have had similar results to 30 vpip. I find that the blinds eat me away playing 21% especially when my aces and kings consistently lose to unsuited random cards that some fish calls 2 cold with... I wonder how they can call with my rock like table image if I am only playing 21% of my hands but they do.

By playing more hands I generate more rake which turns into more rakeback and more bonuses and this is how I have been surviving the game. I have even ventured a few thousand hands playing 50% to try and maximize on this theory while picking up pots I normally wouldn't. This way of playing did not fair well for me because I didn't like the huge swings.

I have been trying to find a balance and playing less hands and smarter poker. The only change I am noticing is less rakeback which equals less profits because I am running at -1 bb/100 over 50,000 hands now...

Re: Life Time Running Bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
First of all, I have read posts where winning (high limit) players are put in 50 and even 60 percent voluntary. If for meta game purposes is besides the point. The point being that 30 vpip may seem high to some and low to other.



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The fact is that most of these high limit players play heads up. They HAVE to see that many flops.

Have a look at this example here

If you are playing 30% in full ring games 10-handed then I would label you as loose.