Hand vs stox
 

5 handed crypto.

2 folds and stox raises on the button, sb folds, I call with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the bb.

Flop J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
I check, he bets, I c/r, he 3 bets, I 4 bet, he calls (no cap hu).

Turn J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet, he calls.

River 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet, he raises. 3 bet or call?

Re: Hand vs stox
 

My initial reaction was 3-bet. But I have since changed to call, as I don't want to fold to a 4-bet.

I'm thinking what does he think you have? You could be defending with any of the 2 pair flop hands. J9, J8, 98, a pair and straight draw or a set. Set is increasingly doubtful as you would have 3-bet PF. So stox has got to give you the 3 above or at least T9.

Stox may have AJ, and that would explain the behaviour on the flop, but I don't think he has it enough to make raising viable. So yeah b/c. Is my revised line.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

PS I hate QTo 'the hand of doom'

Re: Hand vs stox
 

It would help to know if your Ten is a heart. If it is, I likely threebet. If it isn't, I call.

Josh

Re: Hand vs stox
 

[ QUOTE ]
It would help to know if your Ten is a heart. If it is, I likely threebet. If it isn't, I call.

Josh

[/ QUOTE ]

I edited my post to clarify. It wasn't a heart.

Re: Hand vs stox
 

Raise, but it's kind of close

Re: Hand vs stox
 

You think the T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in your hand swings it that much?

I don't think the flush is that much of a threat to swing this decision I'm alot more inclined to think either Stox has a full haouse and wanted to raise the end because he figired bk would bet again or. stox maybe thinks bk has been counterfeited. Unlikely as he'd then have to have 98.

Even then stox would not raise as bk wouldn't pay off with a busted 2pair. Or would he? I'd imagine there would be a large degree of history between the two of you.

What do you do if the raise is on the turn? Is that an easy 3bet? Because if the turn is an easy 3bet the only thing swinging the decision is the third [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

JT

JT

Re: Hand vs stox
 

This is pretty close I think. 67 suited seems pretty pretty possible. If the hearts didnt get there then this is easy 3 bet IMO. I have not played with stox a lot, but he doesnt come off to me as a player that is rasing particualrly light here.

Being as you get raised 100% by hands you are behind, I think a call is a little better. I guess you are ahead here pretty close to 60% so it is obviously a really close play. (I doubt stox has a boat here very frequently though).

Re: Hand vs stox
 

[ QUOTE ]
Raise, but it's kind of close


[/ QUOTE ]
if we 3bet, are we folding to a 4bet? I'm really leaning towards calling here, the heart is kinda scary, and im not sure i see a player of his caliber calling a 3bet with a worse hand

Re: Hand vs stox
 

[ QUOTE ]
You think the T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in your hand swings it that much?


[/ QUOTE ]

It's obviously close. I mean, you yourself said you changed your mind in the middle of posting. It's close. Close enough that a few percentage points of probability can sway it.

After BK puts in a cap on the flop and leads the turn, I think Stox can rest assured that he (BK) won't fold to a turn raise, so I think Stox raises the turn with a boat.

Thus, I think that BK's biggest fear should be the flush. But how can Stox have a flush? Well, he could have something like A8h (maybe he plays it that way on the flop, I really dunno). Or, he can have a straight draw on the flop that backdoors into a flush.

I won't try to assign percentages to the possible holdings, but remember we need to be ahead 67% of the time to justify a raise (assuming BK calls a threebet, which I think he'd do, but could be wrong). That means, we only need 33% doubt to not raise. There's a chance of a boat (in the 10% range, I guess), and the rest of the doubt lies in the flush. So, I'm saying there's a 25ish% chance of a flush, and a good chunk of that 25% involves the Ten (seems I lied and did try to assign percentages).

Josh

p.s. To answer your question about what I'd do if the raise was on the turn, my answer is I'd call and lead any non-board-pairing river (and call a river raise).

Re: Hand vs stox
 

[ QUOTE ]

You think the T in your hand swings it that much?

[/ QUOTE ]

The ten of heats is very important because almost every hand that has 2 heats in it that stox would 3bet on the flop include the ten.

That said I think its a 3bet even w/o the Th.

Re: Hand vs stox
 

river is so close that it borders on trivial.

i dont think you should fastplay the flop. good players fastplaying the flop = warning to other good players that you have a big hand. i dont think you would play a naked T or even T with a pair as aggro.

Re: Hand vs stox
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You think the T in your hand swings it that much?

[/ QUOTE ]

The ten of heats is very important because almost every hand that has 2 heats in it that stox would 3bet on the flop include the ten.

That said I think its a 3bet even w/o the Th.

[/ QUOTE ]
I really dont see him callin a 3bet with a worse hand here. Furthermore, what is he raising w/ on the river that we are ahead of and will get called by a 3bet? He knows that BK isn't going to fold given the size of the pot, isn't that more incentive just to call?

Re: Hand vs stox
 

Seems to me like he has you or he has a hand that cannot call and 3 bet and he is making a thin value raise with a Jack or even a big pair. Therefore I don't see the value in 3 betting because I don't think he can call you with worse.

-DeathDonkey

Re: Hand vs stox
 

He's making one of those cute wittle scare card protected marginal raises. Bring it back to him for three.

Re: Hand vs stox
 

[ QUOTE ]
He's making one of those cute wittle scare card protected marginal raises. Bring it back to him for three.

[/ QUOTE ]
I understand why we feel our hand is best here, that's one thing, but raising and expecting him to call with a worse hand is a whole other issue.

Re: Hand vs stox
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's making one of those cute wittle scare card protected marginal raises. Bring it back to him for three.

[/ QUOTE ]
I understand why we feel our hand is best here, that's one thing, but raising and expecting him to call with a worse hand is a whole other issue.

[/ QUOTE ]

BK and Stox have all kinds of history against one another. He'll be calling plenty.

Re: Hand vs stox
 

well then given the history, are we calling a cap???

Re: Hand vs stox
 

I would 3 bet, but I think it is close.

Re: Hand vs stox
 

[ QUOTE ]
He's making one of those cute wittle scare card protected marginal raises. Bring it back to him for three.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Hand vs stox
 

The way this played out, I think a three-bet is really, really thin. I probably just call because I'm not good enough at poker to fold if he makes it four bets.

SpaceAce

Re: Hand vs stox
 

I 3bet the river. The only way he can figure to have a heart flush, given the action, is Ah8h - or maybe some weird KhQh freecard 3bet, which IMO is relatively unlikely.

Also, I would call his flop 3bet and bet-3bet the turn or c/r the turn depending on what comes off. If I think he'll be taking a free card often enough that a c/r is a bad idea I might be inclined to fastplay...I don't know that we're going to be able to get him to go off for extra bets the way more aggressive/worse handreaders would.

Surf

Re: Hand vs stox
 

I've been thinking about this for awhile and I'm still not a fan of 3 betting. On the flop, we've clearly represented a set or a straight, and I'll even throw 2 pair in there. Now given all those hands, why on earth would he raise us on the river if he couldn't beat a majority of those holdings?

Re: Hand vs stox
 

Furthermore, if we puts us on a hand like JT here, and then we 3bet the river, I really don't think he's calling

Re: Hand vs stox
 

I think you should just call here, because he could have lots of hand to beat you: 88,99, J9soooed(I don't know if this is in his range to steal from the button), or any two hearts. You don't want to have to call or fold to the fourth raise.

Re: Hand vs stox
 

It seems unlikely that stox can 4-bet without a boat and equally unlikely that stox won't raise this turn with a boat. Stox can easily imo be raising the river for value with worse, so I don't see why 3-betting is not the clear choice here.

-Jason

Re: Hand vs stox
 

[ QUOTE ]
It seems unlikely that stox can 4-bet without a boat and equally unlikely that stox won't raise this turn with a boat. Stox can easily imo be raising the river for value with worse, so I don't see why 3-betting is not the clear choice here.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]
FLUSH

Re: Hand vs stox
 

Call. He's got Th8h sooooo often there. Plus on that board I don't think he waits till the river to make a fancy schmancy KJ (he'd raise the turn) or KK (which I think he never has when he raises the river) raise or something. He'd do it on the turn, way too much out there for him to "delay" his raise till the river.

Re: Hand vs stox
 

wouldn't this be a good spot for him to delay to the river where he will be less likely to get 3-bet by a worse hand? (i.e. a situation exactly like this one)

Re: Hand vs stox
 

[ QUOTE ]
wouldn't this be a good spot for him to delay to the river where he will be less likely to get 3-bet by a worse hand? (i.e. a situation exactly like this one)

[/ QUOTE ]

Or the river card freezes you up from doing it any more.

Re: Hand vs stox
 

Thanks FV.

What I was saying was that since stox likely WONT 4-bet a flush yet might raise the river with worse than QT, it makes sense to 3-bet for value.

Re: Hand vs stox
 

while theres not many combos that give him a flush, his actions scream that he hit. when a player shows strength, slows down, then shows strenght again its generally very strong.

also, i think hes gonna give more action on the turn given that board if he had a monster like a set. it really looks like a flush with 108h or kqh or k10h or a10h. i suppose j5s is a possibility too.

that said ive never played stox and or on crypto. against the good tags i see regularly i wouldnt 3bet here tho.

Re: Hand vs stox
 

Posting blind, sorry if it is a repeat, but i'd say call. Seems like a 8Thearts to me.

Re: Hand vs stox
 

Call because of the heart. If it's a non-heart river, this question becomes more interesting.

Edit: Nevermind, that makes no sense given his PF and flop plays. Villain pretty much never hits a backdoor flush here unless he is a maniac.

Re: Hand vs stox
 

Reraise.

Re: Hand vs stox
 

I understand that there is a lot of history between the two, but raising the river with that board? I don't see how you could do anything else but call. Getting 4 bet sucks, and I can't really think of a single worse hand he would pay off a 3 bet with on the river that he would play this way. I think Schneids' read that he has Th8h is a good one.

Re: Hand vs stox
 

[ QUOTE ]
He's making one of those cute wittle scare card protected marginal raises. Bring it back to him for three.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this at all. What hand would Stox be doing this with?

Re: Hand vs stox
 

BK posts a hand vs another well respected poster. 4300 views and 35 repsonses later, BK's repsonded once without results. The other poster has yet to respond.

Coming back to this thread is like staying up late watching the Academy Awards and finally saying to yourself "What the f*ck am I even doing even paying attention to this sh*t. Who gives a fck?" Is this kind of like a bone to the forum to chew on?

Re: Hand vs stox
 

call and i really don't think it is close.

Re: Hand vs stox
 

[ QUOTE ]
Call. He's got Th8h sooooo often there. Plus on that board I don't think he waits till the river to make a fancy schmancy KJ (he'd raise the turn) or KK (which I think he never has when he raises the river) raise or something. He'd do it on the turn, way too much out there for him to "delay" his raise till the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

i wrote a 1page post on this hand before i got bad beat by the phoenix airport's weak ass internet bullsh*t that kept the post from going through.

i initially thought it was a 3bet for a few of the reasons mentioned.

after talking to a few others, and given that stox has slowed down alot recently so as not to get moved off hands, and the flop went 4 bets (and he'd easily do it w/ hand you suggest) the fact that he CANT 4 bet with a worse hand doesn't mean 3betting is correct.

he just doesn't hav ethe calling frequency w/ a jack or 76s (given the flop play) as many seem to think.

i also think this post, while interesting, is both semi-trivial (i loved it but thats just b/c i know the guys involved) and tough at the same time. but the more you think about how good of a player stox is (he is folding the Jacks here many of you think he's calling) it's really not a clear 3 bet. in fact, its not a 3 bet at all.

i call here.

Barron

Re: Hand vs stox
 

Has to be a call. You are losing to both a flush and a full house. Why would you want to raise since you're not folding and he is very unlikely to. He may easily have been playing 88/99 or QT[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or JJ [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] . the number of times he folds to a raise (and since you will want to fold to a 4-bet as you're almost certainly toast) it's so marginal - I would rather see his cards to see why he called the turn after the flop action (tricky, or on a draw).