Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

Lets say I got this scenario:

Bookies1: NBA- PHI +5.5 -110
CHI -5.5 -110

Bookies2: NBA- PHI +4.5 +110
CHI -4.5 -120

How do I calculate the percent edge the bookies or bettor has, while factoring in the line discrepencies? All help is appreciated. Please show math.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

This is not a profitable middle. Not even close.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

I'm assuming Bookie2 is Pinnacle, and this is the better line on both sides. If you want to make sure, look at the drop-down box and compare the prices at the other spread.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

profitable NBA middles are generally no more than 5c combined juice per half point. so for example, I would play +5.5 -110 if there was -4.5 +100 available. most of the time, good plays require to you take open leads and wait for the steam to blow the line further down before closing.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

OK....so How do I calculate the percent edge the bookies or bettor has, while factoring in the line discrepencies?

If the spread is the same i think you do it like this:
Bookies1: NBA- PHI +5.5 -110
CHI -5.5 -110

Bookies2: NBA- PHI +5.5 +110
CHI -5.5 -120

Highest odds PHI: Bookies2=PHI with +110
Highest odds CHI: Bookies1=CHI with -110

PHI +110 = 11/10 = 110
CHI -110 = 10/11 = 90.91

110 + 90.91 = 200.91

200/200.91 = 99.55% or a .45% combined profit to the arb better

Is this correct?

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Highest odds PHI: Bookies2=PHI with +110
Highest odds CHI: Bookies1=CHI with -110

PHI +110 = 11/10 = 110
CHI -110 = 10/11 = 90.91

110 + 90.91 = 200.91

200/200.91 = 99.55% or a .45% combined profit to the arb better

Is this correct?

[/ QUOTE ]
no, because only one team can cover the same spread. the way you structured it, if the bulls win by 6 or more, you win $10, but if philly wins or loses by 5 or less, then you lose $9.09.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

Line Converter

craig

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Highest odds PHI: Bookies2=PHI with +110
Highest odds CHI: Bookies1=CHI with -110

PHI +110 = 11/10 = 110
CHI -110 = 10/11 = 90.91

110 + 90.91 = 200.91

200/200.91 = 99.55% or a .45% combined profit to the arb better

Is this correct?

[/ QUOTE ]
no, because only one team can cover the same spread. the way you structured it, if the bulls win by 6 or more, you win $10, but if philly wins or loses by 5 or less, then you lose $9.09.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was using the numbers for the calculations not bets, just as a proof of concept, given that situation you can have a win-win situation (although very small) if you balance your wagers properly.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

What I really need is the *Math* you use when have different spreads to calcualte the scalpers advantage in an arbitrage situation. I am writing software an am having trouble implementing some of the algorithms when planning for different spread scenarios.

Maybe some of you heard of Win Risk Free, I am developing software like that, except it will work better. I almost have a working beta that I will release soon as I deem it stable.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

I am thinking you keep the math the same but you also get the added hedging scenario with different spreads providing the odds are also favorable.

Let's try another example so you guys can tell me I'm wrong again. More obvious this time (for example sake)

Book1: PHI +7 -110
Book2: CHI -5 +120

Price conversions:
-110 = 10/11 = 90.91%
+120 = 12/10 = 120%

$113 on PHI gives $102.70 on win
$87 on CHI gives $104.40 on win

so you have a gauranteed minimum $2.70 profit.
1.78% average investment on you $200
PLUS if CHI wins by 5, 6, or 7 points you win huge with the hedge.

If anyone know how to factor in this "win huge with the hedge" factor into my mathematics example I am interested!

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was using the numbers for the calculations not bets, just as a proof of concept, given that situation you can have a win-win situation (although very small) if you balance your wagers properly.

[/ QUOTE ]
really? why don't you show us how to make a guaranteed profit on +110 and -110.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

I dont mean to burst your bubble (actually I do), but if you are struggling with this 8th grade level math, I doubt your software is going to be worth buying or even using yourself. There are several companies that already sell software that alerts people of arbs and have tons of other features. Also, sports arbitrage sounds like great easy money, but it really isn't. You have to be glued to the computer screen for hours and hours a day to turn even a pittance of a profit. If you have $50,000 to start with in 20 sports-betting accounts, you can spend every waking hour at the computer and make $150 bucks a day if you're good. I would rather play 1-2NL and make 200 in a three or four hours.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Let's try another example so you guys can tell me I'm wrong again. More obvious this time (for example sake)

Book1: PHI +7 -110
Book2: CHI -5 +120

Price conversions:
-110 = 10/11 = 90.91%
+120 = 12/10 = 120%

$113 on PHI gives $102.70 on win
$87 on CHI gives $104.40 on win

so you have a gauranteed minimum $2.70 profit.
1.78% average investment on you $200
PLUS if CHI wins by 5, 6, or 7 points you win huge with the hedge.

If anyone know how to factor in this "win huge with the hedge" factor into my mathematics example I am interested!

[/ QUOTE ]

You are really struggling with some basic math here, are you sure you want to pursue this?

Your minimum profit is not $2.70 in your example. You win $102.7 - 87 = $15.70 if Phi covers and lose $104.40-$113=-$8.60 if Chi covers. You really need to get a handle on this before you go any further, this is simple stuff.





[ QUOTE ]
PLUS if CHI wins by 5, 6, or 7 points you win huge with the hedge.

If anyone know how to factor in this "win huge with the hedge" factor into my mathematics example I am interested!

[/ QUOTE ]

As to this question, the Math is simple (though still harder than simple scalp above), you simply multiply the probabilty of a 5, 6 or 7 being the final score by the amount you'll win if those numbers hit (e.g. 6 wins both bets, 5 & 7 win one and push the other, since the bet amounts are different you will have a different outcome on each of 5, 6 & 7).

The trouble is there is no simple way to get the probabilities of landing on 5, 6 or 7 -- there is no mathematical rule you can use. An NBA game is different from NCAABB game, a game between Pho & Sea is different from a game between SA & Mem, a game lined at +2 is different from a game lined at +10, the chances of landing on 1,2 or 3 are different from the chances of 6,7 or 8, a home game for NY is different from an away game for NY, a game back in Dec is different from a game in March etc. The best you can do is use historical data, figure out which games are most similar to the one you're looking at and see how often 5,6 & 7 hit in those games and hope it's close to the same in your game. Craig gave a link above which is a probably about as good as your going to do with out a ton of work.

Good luck.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
What I really need is the *Math* you use when have different spreads to calcualte the scalpers advantage in an arbitrage situation. I am writing software an am having trouble implementing some of the algorithms when planning for different spread scenarios.

Maybe some of you heard of Win Risk Free, I am developing software like that, except it will work better. I almost have a working beta that I will release soon as I deem it stable.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you can't figure out how to calculate an arb bet, I'm frightened by how poor your "software" must be.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

I think what OP is trying to do is to make his software detect profitable sides and middles (incl. juice) in addition to pure scalps on the same line as most programs already do. however, these calculations are highly arbitrary and it is ultimately up to the individual bettor whether to take the margin or buy/sell back the half points.

as I've gotten more experienced in sportsbetting over time, I found that I am much more efficient in finding good opportunities with my own eye rather than waiting for some program to beep on a screen, by then usually it's too late to react anyway.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you can't figure out how to calculate an arb bet, I'm frightened by how poor your "software" must be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why say this? What's the purpose?

I find it hard to believe that someone with a grand total of 27 posts decides to say something like this. I've got > 500, and I wouldn't consider being a jerk like you.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Let's try another example so you guys can tell me I'm wrong again. More obvious this time (for example sake)

Book1: PHI +7 -110
Book2: CHI -5 +120

Price conversions:
-110 = 10/11 = 90.91%
+120 = 12/10 = 120%

$113 on PHI gives $102.70 on win
$87 on CHI gives $104.40 on win

so you have a gauranteed minimum $2.70 profit.
1.78% average investment on you $200
PLUS if CHI wins by 5, 6, or 7 points you win huge with the hedge.

If anyone know how to factor in this "win huge with the hedge" factor into my mathematics example I am interested!

[/ QUOTE ]

You are really struggling with some basic math here, are you sure you want to pursue this?

Your minimum profit is not $2.70 in your example. You win $102.7 - 87 = $15.70 if Phi covers and lose $104.40-$113=-$8.60 if Chi covers. You really need to get a handle on this before you go any further, this is simple stuff.





[ QUOTE ]
PLUS if CHI wins by 5, 6, or 7 points you win huge with the hedge.

If anyone know how to factor in this "win huge with the hedge" factor into my mathematics example I am interested!

[/ QUOTE ]

As to this question, the Math is simple (though still harder than simple scalp above), you simply multiply the probabilty of a 5, 6 or 7 being the final score by the amount you'll win if those numbers hit (e.g. 6 wins both bets, 5 & 7 win one and push the other, since the bet amounts are different you will have a different outcome on each of 5, 6 & 7).

The trouble is there is no simple way to get the probabilities of landing on 5, 6 or 7 -- there is no mathematical rule you can use. An NBA game is different from NCAABB game, a game between Pho & Sea is different from a game between SA & Mem, a game lined at +2 is different from a game lined at +10, the chances of landing on 1,2 or 3 are different from the chances of 6,7 or 8, a home game for NY is different from an away game for NY, a game back in Dec is different from a game in March etc. The best you can do is use historical data, figure out which games are most similar to the one you're looking at and see how often 5,6 & 7 hit in those games and hope it's close to the same in your game. Craig gave a link above which is a probably about as good as your going to do with out a ton of work.

Good luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ouch yes, I see how I was very stupid. I am very knew to this. I really appreciate your post, you demonstrated how I was wrong. Plus, after seeing that I am a noob you continued to help.

Thank you

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

I got this off a website, I'm not sure if its correct. Since my math skills are so weak I can't figure out what I am doing wrong. Thanks in advance to all members who choose and have chosen to help instead of ridicule.

"Remember that you must TAKE (T) the higher odds and LAY (L) the lower odds. The formula is based of off what odds you can get. In the above example the take (T) odds are 155, and the lay (L) odds are 145.
(T + 1) /( L + 1) x L = amount to lay per 1 dollar bet on the take odds.

So our take odd is 1.55, and our lay odd is 1.45

(1.55 + 1) / (1.45 + 1) X 1.45 = 1.51

For every 1 Dollar bet at +155, we bet 1.51 at –145.
The next formula is to determine the percentage profit we are guaranteed.

(T –L) / L (T+2) + 1 = percentage won.

(1.55) / 1.45(1.55 + 2) + 1 = 1.6%"


This is the line I am having trouble with:
<< (T –L) / L (T+2) + 1 = percentage won.

In his example (T-L) would not equal 1.55

I have changed the function around several different ways and I can't seem to get 1.6%?

I am interested in the correct function for gauranteed percent profit. I plan to have my programs GUI sort the highest percent gaurantee profits.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
There are several companies that already sell software that alerts people of arbs and have tons of other features.

[/ QUOTE ]
I would be interested in the names of the companies and the software you are refferring. From what I have seen the web site and e-mail notification services are to slow and the PC programs don't work (win-risk-free problems accessing server and freezes up PC) or are over priced

[ QUOTE ]
Also, sports arbitrage sounds like great easy money, but it really isn't.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree

[ QUOTE ]
You have to be glued to the computer screen for hours and hours a day to turn even a pittance of a profit.

[/ QUOTE ]
I am writing software to overcome this hurdle.

[ QUOTE ]
If you have $50,000 to start with in 20 sports-betting accounts, you can spend every waking hour at the computer and make $150 bucks a day if you're good.

[/ QUOTE ]
$150 a day of risk free money doesn't sound so bad.

[ QUOTE ]
I would rather play 1-2NL and make 200 in a three or four hours.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you are claiming you consistently make 50-66 dollars an hour playing 1-2NL you are only fooling yourself...Maybe if your playing >4 tables at once.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I've got > 500 posts

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry, is that impressive? Luckily for me I don't define myself by my post count.

Let me apologize for calling the idiot an idiot for wasting everyone's time by announcing that he needed help with junior high algebra. Maybe you should devote your deep sensitivity and compassion for the feelings of your fellow man to a nobler cause than poker and sportsbetting.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is the line I am having trouble with:
<< (T –L) / L (T+2) + 1 = percentage won.

In his example (T-L) would not equal 1.55

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right 1.55 is a typo:

(T –L) / L (T+2) + 1 = percentage won

(1.55-1.45) / 1.45(1.55 + 2) + 1
=
(.1) / 1.45(1.55 + 2) + 1
=
(.1) / 1.45(3.55) + 1
=
(.1) / 5.15 + 1
=
(.1) / 6.15
=
0.0162
=
1.6%


If you've balanced the amount bet such that you win the same amount no matter who wins by using (T + 1) /( L + 1) x L then you can use a simplier equation of:

%won = (amount won) / (amount wagered)

Amount won is 1.55 - 1.51 = 0.04 (this is amount won if the +155 team wins, but will be the same if the -145 team wins except for rounding error: (1.51/1.45)-1=0.04.

Amount wagered is 1.51 + 1 = 2.51

%won = (1.55 - 1.51) / (1.51 + 1)
=
0.04 / 2.51
=
1.6%


Note however that these are not these are not optimal bet sizes for this scalp. I'll let you see if you can figure out why. Here's a hint: The above gives you the highest guaranteed profit, but not the highest expected profit. You want to maximize expected profit.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

First, Thank you again DeucesUp.

[ QUOTE ]
Note however that these are not these are not optimal bet sizes for this scalp. I'll let you see if you can figure out why. Here's a hint: The above gives you the highest guaranteed profit, but not the highest expected profit. You want to maximize expected profit.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think you need to weight your bets more on who is expected to win some % of the time. You center the lines and find what percentage of the time the favorite is expected to win, then you weight your gauranteed bets in accordance with the expected probabilities?

center(155, -145) = 150
So fav is expected to win (or cover) 3 to 2 times or 60%-40%

So you want to portion the gauranteed winnings 60% on the side of the fav. covering?

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

Got it!

Multiply the amount you'll win if teamA wins by the probability that teamA wins for your expected profit. Then do the same for teamB. The expected profit is the number you want to be the same on each side.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

Most of you were a great help. Thanks again.

Signed,

The idiot

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dont mean to burst your bubble (actually I do), but if you are struggling with this 8th grade level math, I doubt your software is going to be worth buying or even using yourself. There are several companies that already sell software that alerts people of arbs and have tons of other features. Also, sports arbitrage sounds like great easy money, but it really isn't. You have to be glued to the computer screen for hours and hours a day to turn even a pittance of a profit. If you have $50,000 to start with in 20 sports-betting accounts, you can spend every waking hour at the computer and make $150 bucks a day if you're good. I would rather play 1-2NL and make 200 in a three or four hours.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a joke?

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

A rough version of the software is working (with test data), I will be detecting scalps from 5-10 books by next week. If any of you pros know the best combo of sites to scan to find the most arbs I would appreciate a list. So far I got pinnacle, sport interaction, and bodog for MLB. After MLB I'm going to load NFL pages.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
A rough version of the software is working (with test data), I will be detecting scalps from 5-10 books by next week. If any of you pros know the best combo of sites to scan to find the most arbs I would appreciate a list. So far I got pinnacle, sport interaction, and bodog for MLB. After MLB I'm going to load NFL pages.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't seriously be this fuucking stupid?

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You can't seriously be this fuucking stupid?

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I am...what now?

How are new people supposed to learn about anything using this forum if all you arrogant pricks are calling them idiot and stupid non-stop?

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
How are new people supposed to learn about anything using this forum if all you arrogant pricks are calling them idiot and stupid non-stop?

[/ QUOTE ]
1) this is a discussion forum, not a spoon feeder service. if you're looking for free milk, give your mother a call.

2) every 'question' you've asked here is related to some kind of software you're developing which you presumably hope to sell...back to us? yet you have no ability to do math and I even doubt that you know anything useful about sportsbetting in general. hell, I wouldn't even install your program for free in fear that my computer would suddenly lose the ability to do math as well.

3) everyone gets exactly what they deserve here. you're the only one getting called an idiot, and you're the only one whining about it too. go figure.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You have to be glued to the computer screen for hours and hours a day to turn even a pittance of a profit. If you have $50,000 to start with in 20 sports-betting accounts, you can spend every waking hour at the computer and make $150 bucks a day if you're good.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm glad that this is the common perception, but its really not true. dig a little deeper, or really, take a couple of steps back and look at the situation from another angle. you're a poker player right? try to connect the dots and see there are ways to get the best of it that don't require what you say it does

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

[ QUOTE ]

1) this is a discussion forum, not a spoon feeder service. if you're looking for free milk, give your mother a call.


[/ QUOTE ]
You gave more then enough reasons defending your opinion.

How does saying:
[ QUOTE ]
You can't seriously be this fuucking stupid?

[/ QUOTE ]
Aid to any type of discussion? Call me stupid fine, but at least say why?
[ QUOTE ]

2) every 'question' you've asked here is related to some kind of software you're developing which you presumably hope to sell...back to us? yet you have no ability to do math and I even doubt that you know anything useful about sportsbetting in general. hell, I wouldn't even install your program for free in fear that my computer would suddenly lose the ability to do math as well.


[/ QUOTE ]
Why would you presume that? I figure you would presume I would use it to place bets? My math skills were attacked because of a simple mistake, except for the first post where at that point I had no clue. You ask questions and you answer questions in forums, most of the time. I have given more to this forum then I have received..so far.
[ QUOTE ]

3) everyone gets exactly what they deserve here. you're the only one getting called an idiot, and you're the only one whining about it too. go figure.


[/ QUOTE ]

"everyone gets exactly what they deserve here"
+"you're the only one getting called an idiot"
+<u>"you're the only one whining about it"________</u>
= "go figure"

and "go figure" = I'm a whinning idiot because "playersare" is the godlike authority at 2+2 where everyone gets what they deserve!

I've written and tested a software package in 3 weeks that does in 5 seconds what takes you hours. Have fun searching all the bookies manually.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I've written and tested a software package in 3 weeks that does in 5 seconds what takes you hours. Have fun searching all the bookies manually.

[/ QUOTE ]
uninformed assumptions are pretty much what has doomed you to everyone here so far. I'm very satisfied with the program I already use and I'm sure everyone else who actually knows what they're doing is as well. you can cross me off your potential customer list.

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

I guess if my assumptions were wrong then you could assume they were uninformed...

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have to be glued to the computer screen for hours and hours a day to turn even a pittance of a profit. If you have $50,000 to start with in 20 sports-betting accounts, you can spend every waking hour at the computer and make $150 bucks a day if you're good.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm glad that this is the common perception, but its really not true. dig a little deeper, or really, take a couple of steps back and look at the situation from another angle. you're a poker player right? try to connect the dots and see there are ways to get the best of it that don't require what you say it does

[/ QUOTE ]

I have nothing to say about your comments.

[b][i]<u>YOU STOLE MY NAME[b][i]<u>

Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have to be glued to the computer screen for hours and hours a day to turn even a pittance of a profit. If you have $50,000 to start with in 20 sports-betting accounts, you can spend every waking hour at the computer and make $150 bucks a day if you're good.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm glad that this is the common perception, but its really not true. dig a little deeper, or really, take a couple of steps back and look at the situation from another angle. you're a poker player right? try to connect the dots and see there are ways to get the best of it that don't require what you say it does

[/ QUOTE ]

I have nothing to say about your comments.

[b][i]<u>YOU STOLE MY NAME[b][i]<u>

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry brother man. i had a feeling that something was fishy when i put the name in and it was accepted on the first try. honestly i hadnt seen your name before

oh, and i dont know how to get out of this font and still quote