Sea -7.5 Was
 

-105 at Pinny, I got 2 units down on SEA so far, given WAS' putrid offense and Hawks great O, at home, I think Was goes down, particularly with the injury problems they suffered. Definitely adding if it goes to 7 or lower. thoughts?

Naj

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

I dropped a quick tease on Pats -1.5, Seattle -1.5

I really like moving both of these games down inside three.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

Very nice! It has already moved to 9 at PIN.

craig

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

The Washington/Seattle game is going to be really hard to predict, but I don't think Washington is a 7.5 underdog. Their defense is too good, it will be a close game, and if Clinton Portis is allowed to rush for > 4yds/carry there's no chance of them losing by that much.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

I think Seattle is definately the way to go. I have it at -8.5, which is going to be a bargain. I can see the spread reaching double digits.

Washington looked horrible today. Their offense essentially only scored 3 points, the rest were due to their D. Brunell and Portis are less than 100% and Hasselbach and Alexander are a huge upgrade to Simms and Williams.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

I've been developing a computer ranking system that in theory handicaps games. It was originally for college, but last night I set up a version for the NFL to predict the playoffs. Now it's completely untested in the NFL (it did mediocre at predicting the bowl season, would have lost about 2 cents on the dollar betting, not counting juice), but for what it's worth it says that Seattle should be a 6.1 favorite.

So far the computer is 1-0, having picked Washington straight up to win by 3.8, so if New England only wins by 1.3 (ish) then perhaps it's onto something, and Washington might be a slightly worthwhile bet, though it sounds like the line will move toward Seattle so if you do follow my computer's advice you'll probably want to wait. Wish the mechanical brain luck, unless you bet on the Pats [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dropped a quick tease on Pats -1.5, Seattle -1.5

[/ QUOTE ]

Very nice! I was away from my computer at the time or I would have done the exact same thing.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

I hope everybody else thinks the same thing. I would love to get Washington +10. Seattle is overrated.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

Note that Tampa Bay was the #1 ranked defense in the league. Seattle may very well cover that spread but if I continue to hear comments about how bad the Redskins were on offense today, I will be all over the OVER. Washington was above average in both points and yards this year while playing one of the toughest schedules. With the way Seattle plays, this one could be high scoring but the perception of today's game may keep the line low.

Value

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

[ QUOTE ]
Note that Tampa Bay was the #1 ranked defense in the league ... Washington was above average in both points and yards this year while playing one of the toughest schedules.

[/ QUOTE ]

Absotively. That's the second toughest schedule in the league, by my reckoning, by the way.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

[ QUOTE ]
Note that Tampa Bay was the #1 ranked defense in the league. Seattle may very well cover that spread but if I continue to hear comments about how bad the Redskins were on offense today, I will be all over the OVER. Washington was above average in both points and yards this year while playing one of the toughest schedules. With the way Seattle plays, this one could be high scoring but the perception of today's game may keep the line low.

Value

[/ QUOTE ]

Where does Washingtons points scored against Tampa the first game factor into this?

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

[ QUOTE ]
I hope everybody else thinks the same thing. I would love to get Washington +10. Seattle is overrated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Overrated? With the best record in the NFC, 11 game win streak, the MVP and home field advantage thru the playoffs? This isnt the 1st time that Wash has been lame on offense this year(Giants game). They have had to win thier last 3 or 4 games in the regular season just to make the playoffs and then squeak by TB for a lucky win. Brunell and Portis are both hurt, thats a huge factor. If I am not mistaken Seattle is healthy.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

Seattle got injured in the secondary in the Colts game, but those guys probably come back, and other than that, they have everyone playing 100%. I think this game highly depends on Washington's health (Brunell, Portis, secondary). Fully healthy, Washington covers the spread. If they play like they did against Tampa, Seattle will pwn them.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

[ QUOTE ]
Overrated? With the best record in the NFC, 11 game win streak, the MVP and home field advantage thru the playoffs? This isnt the 1st time that Wash has been lame on offense this year(Giants game). They have had to win thier last 3 or 4 games in the regular season just to make the playoffs and then squeak by TB for a lucky win. Brunell and Portis are both hurt, thats a huge factor. If I am not mistaken Seattle is healthy.


[/ QUOTE ]

You are right. They are not overrated -- I should have said WAY overrated. You want to talk lucky? Here are Seattle's wins:

Niners, Niners, Rams, Rams, Cards, Cards, Texans, Titans -- games against division II teams don't count

Indy -- Seattle would not have won if Indy had cared

Dallas, NY Giants -- flukes; Seattle should have lost both

Philly -- Philly was completely done by that point

Atlanta -- good win

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Overrated? With the best record in the NFC, 11 game win streak, the MVP and home field advantage thru the playoffs? This isnt the 1st time that Wash has been lame on offense this year(Giants game). They have had to win thier last 3 or 4 games in the regular season just to make the playoffs and then squeak by TB for a lucky win. Brunell and Portis are both hurt, thats a huge factor. If I am not mistaken Seattle is healthy.


[/ QUOTE ]

You are right. They are not overrated -- I should have said WAY overrated. You want to talk lucky? Here are Seattle's wins:

Niners, Niners, Rams, Rams, Cards, Cards, Texans, Titans -- games against division II teams don't count

Indy -- Seattle would not have won if Indy had cared

Dallas, NY Giants -- flukes; Seattle should have lost both

Philly -- Philly was completely done by that point

Atlanta -- good win

[/ QUOTE ]

Please don't let facts get in the way of your analysis and this message board.

craig

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

I would stay away from this trap game if you know what's good for you.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would stay away from this trap game if you know what's good for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or at least get on the right side of it.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

Washington offense did look terrible today but you have to take into account
1 They were playing the Bucs
2 The Skins (Gibbs) are known for sitting on leads.
Its not like they were trying to air the ball out and put points on the board. From the 2nd half on it was pretty much a run situation every down trying to eat up the clock and the Bucs offense knew this also.
I would concur that Seatle is the best team in the NFC but with
1 Portis playing as well as he ever has
2 Brunell having playoff experience
3 Moss having a pro bowl season
4 One of the top defenses in the league (including cordinator)
5 A hall of fame head coach
I would say Seattle is far from a lock
IMO

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

By the way, did they ever say why Portis was on the sidelines so much? I think that's another reason they did poorly on offense today.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

I havent heard anything about Portis but I would imagine that Gibbs had Betts in the game just because he is probably because he is a bigger RB and Gibbs game plan (at that junction in the game)was to run inside the tackles and kill the clock. Portis cant seem to pick up yard running between the tackles when the offense suspects it coming. I know that may sound stupid but I'm a skins fan so I catch all their games and I can tell you that if the skins have the ball on the goaline or in a short yardage situation I would much rather see Betts in the game. But thats just my theory.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

The Redskins haven't commented on their decision to sit Portis out towards the end, but he's not injured.

I'm surprised there aren't more people picking Washington with the defensive performance they showed yesterday. I don't expect them to win (although I wouldn't put it past them), but the defense will keep it tight. They'll cover the spread most of the time. If it gets up to +10 this should be an easy Washington pick.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

One thing I forgot to mention that does favor Seattle in this game -- historically favorites cover the spread more than underdogs in the division round of the playoffs.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

[ QUOTE ]
One thing I forgot to mention that does favor Seattle in this game -- historically favorites cover the spread more than underdogs in the division round of the playoffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

The bye week tends to be important. Was got beat up all over the field even though they won, while Sea was resting at home. Now Was has to fly out there. Was has a very good d, but they weren't facing Walter Jones, Hasselbeck and Shaun out there in TB. Simms and the 2 fumblers are not quite as good. Taylor might get suspended for the game as well.

Naj

ps it won't hit 10 but if it does, i'll just take the middle.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

Taylor won't be suspended.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

[ QUOTE ]
Taylor won't be suspended.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did Gibbs and Tags call you already? Nice for you.

Stanley Wilson spent the nite before the SB smokin crack with two hookers in a hotel room and missed the game, killing Cinci's short-yardage game. Anything can happen, all I'm sayin'.

Naj

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Taylor won't be suspended.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did Gibbs and Tags call you already? Nice for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

They said it on ESPN this morning....

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Taylor won't be suspended.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did Gibbs and Tags call you already? Nice for you.

Stanley Wilson spent the nite before the SB smokin crack with two hookers in a hotel room and missed the game, killing Cinci's short-yardage game. Anything can happen, all I'm sayin'.

Naj

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I'll rephrase that, Taylor won't be suspended for his actions in the Tampa Bay game.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dropped a quick tease on Pats -1.5, Seattle -1.5

I really like moving both of these games down inside three.

[/ QUOTE ]

I saw this today and was trying to figure out

1) How the books knew who the Pats were playing next week

2) Why on Earth you'd put money on the Pats -1.5 against either the Broncos or Colts.

Took me a minute or two to figure out.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

heh, yeah, put in the tease as soon as the Redskins game ended and the spread for Seattle / Washington went live: Patriots game had yet to start.

Re: Carefull... facts work both ways...
 

Yes, some wins against some weak teams...

1- one of the THREE losses, to the Redskins, was a game that the Seahawks should have had barring a late FG miss by Brown, who has since become one of the more consistant kickers in the league. You want to talk about close games they should have lost, be less selective and include close games they should have won.

2- This will be one of the first meaningul games of the season where the receiving core will be intact and healthy. If they can make do with guys like Jurevicious, it is gonna be ugly with Jackson and Engram back (for the opposing side of the ball, that is)

3- Take a quick look at the coaching matchups... 'nuff said there.

4- Re-evaluate your look at the NY game... BOTH teams had the game in the bag before FG misses, the Seahawks first.

5- IF Seattle is overrated, then the defense if quite underrated. Look at the Red zone numbers... some of the best in the league.

6- I would never EVER say that "a team is due" in picking my bets, but the recent failures in the past years are gonna show in the eventual line, and the Seahawks will be VERY undervalued by game day.

Good choices, good fun, and GOOD LUCK with the eventual line for the Hawks and Bears... phew.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, did they ever say why Portis was on the sidelines so much? I think that's another reason they did poorly on offense today.

[/ QUOTE ]

Both of Portis' shoulders are banged up and it doesn't appear a week will heal him. I think the Skins will be happy to get 15-20 carries.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

Did anyone bother too mention that these 2 teams have already played once this year with the Redskins coming out ahead (barley). Not by much but -9 and -10 here looks to be a bit much.

Re: Carefull... facts work both ways...
 

[ QUOTE ]
If they can make do with guys like Jurevicious, it is gonna be ugly with Jackson and Engram back (for the opposing side of the ball, that is)

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think Jurevicius is so bad. At least he catches the ball 50% of the time. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
3- Take a quick look at the coaching matchups... 'nuff said there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait, is your argument that Joe Gibbs is a significantly worse coach than Mike Holmgren? Because I'd give the advantage to Gibbs here, and I really don't see how you can give Holmgren some huge edge.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

Senior Gibbs !!!!

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

It's amazing how 1 game changes the way people think. Remember how hot the Skins offense was the last 5 games of the season? Now because of 1 bad game people are saying they can't do anything on offense? It was not too long ago that Santana Moss danced around the Giants secondary, and had everybody saying how good the Skins offense is.

Another thing is the Bucs defense is much, much better than the Seahawks. Right now the line is -9.5 for Seattle, and it probably will only get higher, there is almost no chance they win this game by double digits. The Skins have won 6 straight and they are also 1-0 against Seattle this year (although this was at the beginning of the season).

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's amazing how 1 game changes the way people think. Remember how hot the Skins offense was the last 5 games of the season? Now because of 1 bad game people are saying they can't do anything on offense?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, let's check the must-win PHL game:
Portis, injured during the game, still not 100%
WAS 14 first downs
4-16 on 3rd down
Brunell 9-25, 4.95 yppass, 1 pick
Was punted 10 times.
Was D gave up 70 yds to Bruce Perry, PHL's 4th stringer
Moss was okay 4-83 and no TDs.

Somehow I think Seattle is a bit better than this. Great offense by Was the last two weeks.

Naj

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

I definitely agree that this number is way too high. Where did you get it at -10? At that line I would go big as long as Portis is playing and he is. Redskins defense is capable of making the Seahawks one-dimensional. As long as Brunell can find holes in the Seahawks average defense like they did in Week 4, this should be a 3-7pt win for the Seahawks with the possibility of an upset (meaning the ML of +350 is also a good value IMHO).

Moreover, Gibbs is a better coach than Holmgren. The Redskins have major momentum. And as we all know, defense wins playoff games. All point to the Redskins.

Re: Carefull... facts work both ways...
 

[ QUOTE ]
3- Take a quick look at the coaching matchups... 'nuff said there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm confused, your post seems to be entirely favoring Seattle, and then this. Joe Gibbs/Gregg Williams certainly isn't Washington's weak point.

Re: Carefull... facts work both ways...
 

Washington would have to play terrible on both sides of the ball for Seattle to cover. They really should be able to slow down Alexander enough to keep it within 1 score. Its possible that they come out like they did in that first game against the Giants, but the most likely scenario is Seattle wins a tight one.

Theres nothing Seattle has done this year that says they will run away with a game like this. Look at the home games against Dallas, Atlanta and NY.

Re: Sea -7.5 Was
 

[ QUOTE ]
-105 at Pinny, I got 2 units down on SEA so far, given WAS' putrid offense and Hawks great O, at home, I think Was goes down, particularly with the injury problems they suffered. Definitely adding if it goes to 7 or lower. thoughts?

Naj

[/ QUOTE ]

2 units at -7.5, 1 unit at -8 at Pinny is my finish on the Seattle game. GL to all.

Naj [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]