The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

Well not really.
Seat was a lock needing just one more to bust.
29 seats granted, 30 left. I'm middle of pack.
SS calls from early position (too suspicious)
and knew he wanted to get it all in.

I muck JJ.
I believe this is standard Sat play.
As it turns out, big stack behind me has KK.
If I call, no damage, but why risk anything now?
Any debates on this?


*********** # 466 **************
PokerStars Game #4349763818: Tournament #21200340, Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII
(1500/3000) - 2006/03/20 - 00:47:00 (ET)
Table '21200340 24' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: PGA71 (42457 in chips)
Seat 2: Pechorin (22038 in chips)
Seat 3: PapaSmurf84 (67110 in chips)
Seat 4: calluch (31825 in chips)
Seat 5: Dunkelb1 (36487 in chips)
Seat 6: mrrain (66456 in chips)
Seat 7: gwilkx (12753 in chips)
Seat 8: SuperDuty (43060 in chips)
PGA71: posts the ante 150
Pechorin: posts the ante 150
PapaSmurf84: posts the ante 150
calluch: posts the ante 150
Dunkelb1: posts the ante 150
mrrain: posts the ante 150
gwilkx: posts the ante 150
SuperDuty: posts the ante 150
PapaSmurf84: posts small blind 1500
calluch: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PGA71 [Js Jc]
Pechorin said, "oh god i gotta control the donk thanatos"
Dunkelb1: folds
mrrain: folds
gwilkx: calls 3000
SuperDuty: folds
littlela [observer] said, "bust someone so i can g=o to bed"
PGA71: folds
Pechorin: folds
PapaSmurf84: raises 3000 to 6000
calluch: folds
gwilkx: raises 6603 to 12603 and is all-in
PapaSmurf84: calls 6603
*** FLOP *** [6d 2h Qs]
mrrain said, "wow"
TODZILA [observer] said, "cmon"
bn2b [observer] said, "vn slowroll"
Mr. Tim Caum [observer] said, "KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK"
*** TURN *** [6d 2h Qs] [4d]
mrrain said, "gg gw"
Mr. Tim Caum [observer] said, "KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKk"
nachos24 [observer] said, "wakka wakka!"
*** RIVER *** [6d 2h Qs 4d] [Qd]
Mr. Tim Caum [observer] said, "YES"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PapaSmurf84: shows [Kh Kd] (two pair, Kings and Queens)
gwilkx: shows [9h 9s] (two pair, Queens and Nines)
AZFinFan [observer] said, "wow, and he felt the hand coming"
PapaSmurf84 collected 29406 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 29406 | Rake 0
Board [6d 2h Qs 4d Qd]
Seat 1: PGA71 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Pechorin (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: PapaSmurf84 (small blind) showed [Kh Kd] and won (29406) with two pair,
Kings and Queens
Seat 4: calluch (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Dunkelb1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: mrrain folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: gwilkx showed [9h 9s] and lost with two pair, Queens and Nines
Seat 8: SuperDuty folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

Converters are a good thing, or at least edit it down to the relevant information.

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

Just 3 comments:

1. Absolutely the correct play. Once you are guaranteed a seat, it would be correct to fold AA.

2. Congradualtions you bastard, I'm jealous.

3. Please use hand converter. Actually this should be a rule for the MTT forum.

Link for hand converter

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3000 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Hero (t42457)
Button (t22038)
<font color="#C00000">SB (t67110)</font>
BB (t31825)
UTG (t36487)
UTG+1 (t66456)
<font color="#C00000">MP1 (t12753)</font>
MP2 (t43060)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t3000, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t6000</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t12753</font>, SB calls t6603.

Flop: (t26256) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: (t26256) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t26256) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t26256

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB has Kh Kd (two pair, kings and queens).
MP1 has 9h 9s (two pair, queens and nines).
Outcome: SB wins t26256. </font>

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

Well, with the shorty expressing interest in the hand, and you holding JJ, I suspect it's probably appropriate for you to be involved in the hand. Largely because unless someone has an absolute monster preflop, you almost certainly won't have to play for more than 12753 chips, which you can afford to lose and still be in comfortable shape to get a seat. The reward for calling and getting involved for the minimum number of chips is to make sure shorty doesn't win the hand is a WSOP seat for you.

I'd have called or even minraised here. Basically, I don't want to risk more than 12753 chips, and expect that I would check it down with any other player without the nuts if we get all in preflop.

Basically, I think the risk of losing 1/4 of your stack in this spot and still having 10xBB left is worth it, since you may very well help seal your own WSOP seat with a hand as strong as JJ.

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, with the shorty expressing interest in the hand, and you holding JJ, I suspect it's probably appropriate for you to be involved in the hand. Largely because unless someone has an absolute monster preflop, you almost certainly won't have to play for more than 12753 chips, which you can afford to lose and still be in comfortable shape to get a seat. The reward for calling and getting involved for the minimum number of chips is to make sure shorty doesn't win the hand is a WSOP seat for you.

I'd have called or even minraised here. Basically, I don't want to risk more than 12753 chips, and expect that I would check it down with any other player without the nuts if we get all in preflop.

Basically, I think the risk of losing 1/4 of your stack in this spot and still having 10xBB left is worth it, since you may very well help seal your own WSOP seat with a hand as strong as JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Terrible advice. No reason at all to get involved. The only way I play sheriff is if i am one of the big big stacks and I'm against a shorty. Then you're obligated to take him out to end the thing.

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

Really? Meh, ok. I don't do many sats, guess I have some things to learn.

This seems like a spot where the risk is worth the reward. How are you ever supposed to end the thing if you don't do anything even when you have a very strong hand? I mean, when the shortie gets desperate, SOMEONE has to actually call to knock him out, and when you're the guy with the big hand, how does that not become you? Should Hero fold AA here?

Is the general concept here that you just flat assume that someone else who knows less about late sat strategy (say, like, me) will be willing to make a call and knock someone out before you have to worry about it?

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

one of the easiest places to lay down AA I've ever seen
for the record I've laid down aces at least 5 times, each time correctly

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
Really? Meh, ok. I don't do many sats, guess I have some things to learn.

This seems like a spot where the risk is worth the reward. How are you ever supposed to end the thing if you don't do anything even when you have a very strong hand? I mean, when the shortie gets desperate, SOMEONE has to actually call to knock him out, and when you're the guy with the big hand, how does that not become you? Should Hero fold AA here?

Is the general concept here that you just flat assume that someone else who knows less about late sat strategy (say, like, me) will be willing to make a call and knock someone out before you have to worry about it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am big on fold your way in. However, here I like flat call and fold if anyone raises. You have the seat locked up by folding. However, if you call, you probably have about a 60% chance of winning the hand and ending it right there. If you lose, you can still fold your way in.

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

standard

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

I never play thesee big satellites, so I have a question/comment regarding this hand.
First, we can be almost certain that Papasmurf is going to put in the other 6k to call the all-in. If we know nothing about Papasmurf can we assume that if we just smooth call, he will also call and be willing to check it through to the end to eliminate this last player? If we think he'll be willing to check it down then this becomes a good time to call right?

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

You have 12 BB's, are UTG, and there are 3 shorter stacks at the table, and only one more needs to be eliminated before you get the seat. This is an automatic AA fold, let alone a JJ fold. You'd need to be 29th or 30th in this spot to push, otherwise it's a fold.

I'm jealous BTW, nice job.

Brad

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

If Hero was, lets say, among the top 3 chipleaders in the tournament, should he play JJ here? What about KK or AA?

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
You have 12 BB's, are UTG, and there are 3 shorter stacks at the table, and only one more needs to be eliminated before you get the seat. This is an automatic AA fold, let alone a JJ fold. You'd need to be 29th or 30th in this spot to push, otherwise it's a fold.

I'm jealous BTW, nice job.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Except hero wasn't UTG, he laid down JJ after limper limped his 99. I don't see how raising to 8k here is bad with 42K behind... anyone saying an AA fold here is correct here is wrong.

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

Seke is correct. Check Harrington vol. 2 on satellite play.

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
If Hero was, lets say, among the top 3 chipleaders in the tournament, should he play JJ here? What about KK or AA?

[/ QUOTE ]

If Hero was among the top 3 chipleaders, I would advise him to just "sit out" the rest of the game or even turn the computer off. There is no difference between placing 1st or 29th, they all pay the same seat into the WSOP.

That being said, there is also a minor responsibility to bust out the shorties who may be pushing any two just before the blinds hit. I say minor because while the big stacks don't have to become the table captains, they can best afford it when the odds are correct.

So calling with AA/KK is acceptable, as well as many other lower starting hands, as long as there is no one else involved in the pot.

I think the more interesting question would be if Hero made an isolation play with his JJ, and pushed "All-in", should PapaSmurf called with KK?

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just 3 comments:

1. Absolutely the correct play. Once you are guaranteed a seat, it would be correct to fold AA.

2. Congradualtions you bastard, I'm jealous.

3. Please use hand converter. Actually this should be a rule for the MTT forum.

Link for hand converter

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3000 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Hero (t42457)
Button (t22038)
<font color="#C00000">SB (t67110)</font>
BB (t31825)
UTG (t36487)
UTG+1 (t66456)
<font color="#C00000">MP1 (t12753)</font>
MP2 (t43060)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t3000, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t6000</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t12753</font>, SB calls t6603.

Flop: (t26256) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: (t26256) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t26256) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t26256

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB has Kh Kd (two pair, kings and queens).
MP1 has 9h 9s (two pair, queens and nines).
Outcome: SB wins t26256. </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

This converter is wrong too, it makes it look like Hero acted after the MP1 minraise or something...action was limp, hero folds, minraise, limper pushers, minraiser calls.

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have 12 BB's, are UTG, and there are 3 shorter stacks at the table, and only one more needs to be eliminated before you get the seat. This is an automatic AA fold, let alone a JJ fold. You'd need to be 29th or 30th in this spot to push, otherwise it's a fold.

I'm jealous BTW, nice job.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Except hero wasn't UTG, he laid down JJ after limper limped his 99. I don't see how raising to 8k here is bad with 42K behind... anyone saying an AA fold here is correct here is absolutely correct .

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

I did misread the hand. But even in this situation, AA is a fold. Let's say for the sake of argument that gwilkx and pechorin are 30th and 29th in chips. If you lose an 80-20 proposition here, you have less than 30k and have barely more than 29th and 30th, and you have to post the BB before Pechorin. So you have put yourself in a spot to lose a definite seat on an 80-20 race.

I'm assuming Prime Time is around 16th or so with his stack. FOURTEEN players would need to double up, or steal, or something along those lines to make Prime Time worry about his seat. There is MUCH greater than an 80% chance that he can fold his way into a seat.

If in this spot Prime Time was the chipleader, I'd push with AA or KK to play sheriff maybe. But even then I'd probably just be sitting out.

The blinds escalate and force others to push their small stacks into the blinds. This creates opportunites for short stacks to bust. If you are 3rd in chips for example, and a shorty pushes with 5 BB from the CO, and you hold any two cards you can risk a very little to knock out the shorty. But when you might possibly lose 2/5 of your stack or more if you continue with the hand and losing 2/5 of your stack puts you in the bottom 5 in chips, you NEED to fold everything.

In Prime Time's spot he isn't enough of a chipleader to push other big stacks away and he has a hand that is very easily beat. Raising to 8k here is unacceptable IMO. Pushing is horrible, and calling is bad. I hope I've made a decent argument as to why I'd fold AA or KK here as well.

Brad

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

1. congrats

2. pretty easy fold with everything up to AA. With AA, probably still a fold, but calling isn't very, very wrong. My gut tells me that your tournament equity of folding here is higher than the weighted 80/20 of your stack if you happened to get AA cracked.

3. i don't like the converter on this hand, since it doesn't show stack sizes at the table.

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
3. i don't like the converter on this hand, since it doesn't show stack sizes at the table.

[/ QUOTE ]

sure it did.

Hero (t42457)
Button (t22038)
SB (t67110)
BB (t31825)
UTG (t36487)
UTG+1 (t66456)
MP1 (t12753)
MP2 (t43060)

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
3. i don't like the converter on this hand, since it doesn't show stack sizes at the table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Better, Soss? BTW, guys, I think this converter is pretty sweet.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t1500/t3000
(Ante: t150)
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t36487
UTG+1: t66456
MP1: t12753
MP2: t43060
Hero: t42457
Button: t22038
SB: t67110
BB: t31825

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, MP1 calls t3000, MP2 folds, Hero folds, Button folds, <font color="#cc3333">SB raises to t7500</font>, BB folds, <font color="#cc3333">MP1 raises all-in t12603</font>, SB calls t6603.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t29406, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t29406)


Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t29406, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t29406)


River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t29406, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t29406)


Results:
Final pot: t29406

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
I did misread the hand. But even in this situation, AA is a fold. Let's say for the sake of argument that gwilkx and pechorin are 30th and 29th in chips. If you lose an 80-20 proposition here, you have less than 30k and have barely more than 29th and 30th, and you have to post the BB before Pechorin. So you have put yourself in a spot to lose a definite seat on an 80-20 race.

I'm assuming Prime Time is around 16th or so with his stack. FOURTEEN players would need to double up, or steal, or something along those lines to make Prime Time worry about his seat. There is MUCH greater than an 80% chance that he can fold his way into a seat.

If in this spot Prime Time was the chipleader, I'd push with AA or KK to play sheriff maybe. But even then I'd probably just be sitting out.

The blinds escalate and force others to push their small stacks into the blinds. This creates opportunites for short stacks to bust. If you are 3rd in chips for example, and a shorty pushes with 5 BB from the CO, and you hold any two cards you can risk a very little to knock out the shorty. But when you might possibly lose 2/5 of your stack or more if you continue with the hand and losing 2/5 of your stack puts you in the bottom 5 in chips, you NEED to fold everything.

In Prime Time's spot he isn't enough of a chipleader to push other big stacks away and he has a hand that is very easily beat. Raising to 8k here is unacceptable IMO. Pushing is horrible, and calling is bad. I hope I've made a decent argument as to why I'd fold AA or KK here as well.



[/ QUOTE ]


Excellent analysis Nez477!
My exact thoughts as I was playing.
Posted this to help others understand proper Sat strategy.

Lets keep this in mind.
If this was a Sunday Super, I would have “busted out” [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]on the hand, cause if my chips are not all-in PF, they are certainly in after the flop.

Any comments on this?

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]

Excellent analysis Nez477!
My exact thoughts as I was playing.
Posted this to help others understand proper Sat strategy.

Lets keep this in mind.
If this was a Sunday Super, I would have “busted out” [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]on the hand, cause if my chips are not all-in PF, they are certainly in after the flop.

Any comments on this?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, in a regular tournament this is busto for me all day every day. For what it's worth, I would have folded AA in your spot (well, I don't know if I would have, but I would like to think I could, because I think it's the right play).

I made the super-tough KTo laydown on that hand, was it the right play? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Edit: I was somehow able to overcome the donk thanatos!

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

Could someone demonstrate how mathematically, laying down AA is right there? You've convinced me that this JJ laydown makes sense, but I can't wrap my brain around the math for this to be an AA fold.

Let's say you have a 99% chance of getting a seat if you just post and fold. If you go all in with AA and lose the hand, you still have at least an average number of chips, and could still post/fold enough orbits to have a 95% chance of going in. Just some complete hypotheticals, since we don't know the sizes of the stacks at the other tables in this particular instance.

The 80 (or better)% chance of ending the tournament immediately if AA holds up doesn't make up for the perhaps 5% less chance of winning if AA gets cracked?

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
Could someone demonstrate how mathematically, laying down AA is right there? You've convinced me that this JJ laydown makes sense, but I can't wrap my brain around the math for this to be an AA fold.

Let's say you have a 99% chance of getting a seat if you just post and fold. If you go all in with AA and lose the hand, you still have at least an average number of chips, and could still post/fold enough orbits to have a 95% chance of going in. Just some complete hypotheticals, since we don't know the sizes of the stacks at the other tables in this particular instance.

The 80 (or better)% chance of ending the tournament immediately if AA holds up doesn't make up for the perhaps 5% less chance of winning if AA gets cracked?

[/ QUOTE ]

We're in MP here Seke. Therefore another bigstack with more chips can call and knock us out. If EP raises and folded to you in the BB, then a push might make more sense if the EP raiser has a small stack. But this situation pushing with AA would be a bad idea.

In general, I never, on a satellite bubble, should be risking all of my chips unless I need to double up to win the seat. In this case pushing with AA means you could be risking all of your chips.

Brad

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

I wasn't advocating a push, even though my post read that way. I meant to advocate putting shortie all in, risking no more than exactly how many chips the short stack has. If I had AA here, I would probably raise to the exact size of shortie's stack and assume that nobody would raise beyond that, since it would be incredibly stupid of them to do so.

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

Could an argument be made to raise to t12573 here after the limp, and fold to a reraise by a bigger stack? I whole heartedly agree that this is a laydown with JJ, but wouldnt this line cover your butt too?
~Justin

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
Could someone demonstrate how mathematically, laying down AA is right there? You've convinced me that this JJ laydown makes sense, but I can't wrap my brain around the math for this to be an AA fold.

Let's say you have a 99% chance of getting a seat if you just post and fold. If you go all in with AA and lose the hand, you still have at least an average number of chips, and could still post/fold enough orbits to have a 95% chance of going in. Just some complete hypotheticals, since we don't know the sizes of the stacks at the other tables in this particular instance.

The 80 (or better)% chance of ending the tournament immediately if AA holds up doesn't make up for the perhaps 5% less chance of winning if AA gets cracked?

[/ QUOTE ]

you're way higher than 99% to win a seat here, there is absolutely no reason to risk chips, period (unless everyone else is sitting out and the shortstacks are colluding as they become shortstacks and when the shortstacks becomes not short they sit out until they're short again) ps that doesn't happen very often

sure if you lose you'll still have a huge chance of getting in, but there's no reason to risk it. Why do you want so badly to end it now?

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

I'm just trying to understand the fundamental principle here.

For a satallite to actually end, SOMEONE will have to make a call of a short stack's push at some point. I guess basically what you guys are saying that is that:
1) its too many chips to risk here relative to Hero's stack
2) JJ isn't strong enough to be worth the risk

If Villain only had, say, 3000 left, exactly 1 BB, should Hero limp in as well and hope to check it down?

I've been thinking about playing sats recently for an occasional shot at a big money tournament, but apparently I need to work on my sat bubble math first, and just want to understand this better.

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

I understand that Hero's position in this situation is a virtual lock, but there are many situations in satellites that are not so clear. Is there any type of formula available to quantify the chance of survival on the bubble of a satellite?

I think knowing that you have a roughly X% chance of folding in would be very valuable at the table. How can we quantify this?

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

I might take a shot at this tonight. Maybe.

I think the best way to look at it as follows: How often do two stacks, one short and one large, both get AQ+/99+ in the amount of time it would take to blind hero down. I guess this would be a good starting point.

Without math thought, I am 99% certain that hero can fold his way into a seat being say, 16th out of 30. But the argument can be made that if 1-29 think they can sit out then 30 can steal all he wants. And eventually it just comes down to who posts which blind first. This does not happen though.

As I said before, 14 players would have to somehow find a way to get more chips than the hero without busting. EXTREMELY unlikely.

Brad

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

I certainly don't doubt this being a 99% chance of folding into a seat, and also a 99% chance that playing this hand can only decrease that number. Being able to quantify this at least to a good estimate would make the bubble much easier to play.

I think you are onto something, start with how many hands hero has left, then the chances of 2 big hands meeting. Would starting with total chips in play minus huge stacks(shouldn't be playing without monsters) and come up with avg stack when bubble bursts be helpful to this calculation?

I'm not looking for an exact formula per se, since I doubt one could be created. I am more curious at determining all the factors that should be considered while estimating this number.

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
If Villain only had, say, 3000 left, exactly 1 BB, should Hero limp in as well and hope to check it down?

[/ QUOTE ]

If Villain had only 1BB and we only needed one player to bust to end the tournament; I think that the entire table should call, checking it down to the river no matter what the flop. This would increase the chance that someone would catch a hand to crack whatever the shorty was pushing.

It's only collusion if I say it out loud. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

Right, but we're assuming everyone else won't play optimally.

How large does the short stack need to be before that turns from an easy call (at 1xBB) to a fold (at 4xBB)?

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

I don't think whether the shorty's stack relative to the blinds is as important as it is relative to Hero's stack, Hero's position, and stacks yet to act.

Hero has 14 BB and can marginally afford to gamble. Right now, he can check/fold thru 7 complete orbits. If he loses this hand, that will reduce that to 5 orbits. This is what I would consider to be the critical decision point.

However, Let's say Hero is in late position with that same JJ. In Button, SB, or best yet -BB, if folded around to him, the odds that someone will wake up with a hand are reduced. Then making a play against the shorty becomes a little more tolerable.

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
Could an argument be made to raise to t12573 here after the limp, and fold to a reraise by a bigger stack? I whole heartedly agree that this is a laydown with JJ, but wouldnt this line cover your butt too?
~Justin

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Possibly. But you're in MP with JJ and the UTG shorty only calls. I might fold JJ because I think the odds are too good that he has AA/KK/QQ and is just desperate to double up.

Obviously, knowing he has 99 means we could theoretically have called, let the big stack call as well, and check it down to knock out the shorty. But in that situation, I'd be terrified to put a significant amount of my chips at risk against the shorty, to say nothing of whatever hand might be lurking behind me.

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

So JJ is still a fold if the shortie has, lets say, 6000 chips, and Hero thinks the rest of the table is smart enough to understand that it would be stupid to reraise preflop if shortie moves all in?

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

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So JJ is still a fold if the shortie has, lets say, 6000 chips, and Hero thinks the rest of the table is smart enough to understand that it would be stupid to reraise preflop if shortie moves all in?

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I guess if we KNEW that no one would reraise you, then ya it's probably a call. But you'd need to know 100% for sure that no one would be dumb enough to reraise you preflop, and that's a very silly assumption in online poker.

Brad

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

I think playing AA here would be a massive mistake. I don't see how it's even close.

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

seriously... the bottom line is hero is pretty much guarenteed a seat. Why risk ANYTHING? There are enough bad players that won't be playing optimally to insure someone will be knocked out before hero is in danger of being blinded off. Fold every single hand.

Re: The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP
 

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I'm just trying to understand the fundamental principle here.

For a satallite to actually end, SOMEONE will have to make a call of a short stack's push at some point. I guess basically what you guys are saying that is that:
1) its too many chips to risk here relative to Hero's stack
2) JJ isn't strong enough to be worth the risk

If Villain only had, say, 3000 left, exactly 1 BB, should Hero limp in as well and hope to check it down?

I've been thinking about playing sats recently for an occasional shot at a big money tournament, but apparently I need to work on my sat bubble math first, and just want to understand this better.

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yes for the sat to end someone will have to kill the shortie. Someone will. Not everyone is going to sit out, and even if they did, you would not be the 30th out, no matter what (unless what I described in my post happened, which is impossible without HEAVY collusion and obviously is not going to be the case). There is absolutely no reason to put chips at risk here, period.

re: txdozerman - I wish I could quantify that as it would be a HUGE edge in satellites, but the best I can do is estimate. Various factors include average stack size, number of people remaining until bubble, your stack size, how the table has been playing (whether big stacks have been getting involved, whether shortish but not shortest stacks have been getting involved, with what, etc)