Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

Does anyone know if this guy is a 2+2er? I play with him nearly every day and I almost never see him lose. He apparently makes a couple grand a day in the game. He's the type of player that knows how to play correctly, but also knows how to play wrong and make you pay for it anyways. He is an insane winner in the game to the point of a couple of the regulars accusing him of cheating. These are mostly baseless accusations from losers, but the guy does never seem to miss catching the card he needs. He doesn't play a real tight game either, as I've seen him play a lot of one way only hands quite effectively (even as bad as TT in the hole). I can only surmise that his mindset is is that the low hands have to draw out to beat him, which is the total opposite of most players' thinking (myself included) when they have a high only hand in a multiway pot.

Thoughts?

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

[ QUOTE ]
He apparently makes a couple grand a day in the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He apparently makes a couple grand a day in the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

Okay....

He buys in for $500 every time. Every time I look he's up at least 300-400 on each table per session. He plays in spurts throughout the day. So perhaps not a couple grand.

And nothing more to add besides a rebuff of my guesstimate?

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

I haven't played that game in a while, but I never remember playing against him. If I start playing it again I'll look and see what I can come up with. A couple of grand a day seems like a little too much. He could just be running very hot right now.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

I have been reading, and thinking a lot lately about what makes an average poker player into a huge winner(like this guy) and I have come to the conclusion that adjusting to your opponents play is far more important that everyone really believes. There have been posts about this lately in the Mid-Hi limit forum and this idea of adjusting to the texture of the game and your opponents obviously applies to all forms of poker. It's possible this guy is just on a mega heater, but it is also possible this guy sees a lot of angles that people like myself do not. The more I read about the 30-60 game and now this guy crushing the 10-20 the more it makes me believe adjusting to your opponents style of play and having excellent hand reading ability is much more important in stud8 than in many other games. I also had to open my eyes last week when I played in this stud8 game on PR where I lost 100BBs playing against idiots. I certainly ran terrible but I also did a terrible job of adjusting to their style of play. I just kept on trying to run them over and they kept on calling. What I am trying to say is that this guy could certainly just be playing a style of poker that we havent opened our eyes to yet. The first thing that comes to mind while I type this are the DERB posts. I know almost nothing about this situation but I have a feeling you believe this guy is the DERB of the 10-20 8 game

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

Well, a couple of things. He's not really the DERB of the 10/20 stud8 game. He mostly plays a conventional game, but definitely mixes it up with some hands that most here would pitch in a second. Very few of the things he does would be considered maniacal or even donkish. Most players in that thread do not believe that DERB actually plays "well" by 2+2 standards; you couldn't say that about Fobol/Kinsman1josh (his new name). Its just that he knows (like all good players do) what you have and what he needs to make to beat you and seemingly gets there every time. He scoops a lot of pots and never speaks at the table -- just a stone killer. The only way he is similar to DERB is that he's crushed this game for as long as I've been playing it (about a year or so) and possibly even longer. I consider myself to be one of the best players in that game over that same time period, and I can tell you that my winnings, while solid, do not approach his at all.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

Yeah that 30-60 game really made me rethink my stud8 game. It is soooo much different from any other stud8 game I've played.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

I have played with him many times, I play in the $10/20 game as well. He's straight-forward, good, tight. Does not resteal bring-in/antes, does not chase, plays a very regular playing style.

I'd be interested to know what your name is on there, since I take notes on everyone...

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

Assuming your numbers are correct, then the only explanation is that PP is fixed and he works for them. How difficult can it be to fix a site to the benefit of the site.

The other explanation is that he broke into their server and is able to see everyone cards. Is that possible to do? Maybe.

But other than that, no one can consistantly win $1,000 every day. Everyone is prisoner to the same probility. And if they are doing better than that consistantly, then there is cheating going on.

Example
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have played with him many times, I play in the $10/20 game as well. He's straight-forward, good, tight. Does not resteal bring-in/antes, does not chase, plays a very regular playing style.



[/ QUOTE ]

So I'm playing in the game right now and this is a hand with our "big winner" He is up a good deal of money, but certainly wont continue if he plays hands like this

7 Card Stud High-Low ($10/$20), Ante $1, Bring-In $3 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___completes
Seat 5: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

4th Street - (3.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 7: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (2.85 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 7: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___calls

6th Street - (4.85 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 7: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___calls

River - (6.85 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___bets___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___checks___raises

Total pot: (10.85 BB)

Kinsman started (49)9 in the hole and flushed it on the river for half.

Re: Example
 

Well, I see he's at 1277 on one table and 1214 on another. What you witnessed, mscags, is one of those hands I was speaking about where he occasionally starts with nothing and inevitably ends up with something. It's uncanny. I just saw him play (TT)9 the same way too.

For screen names, my current name is bkdoorheehaw. And your notes probably say I'm awful [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I swear I'm not. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] What's your SN?

Re: Example
 

Check your PMs.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

[ QUOTE ]
The more I read about the 30-60 game and now this guy crushing the 10-20 the more it makes me believe adjusting to your opponents style of play and having excellent hand reading ability is much more important in stud8 than in many other games.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice post. I think online poker is slowly changing. I think the players are getting better. The fish are playing a little less loose, and the marginal players are getting more competent. I think this is evident by the downswings some of the regulars on here are experiencing. I think in the past, sqeeky clean 3rd street play could make us a winner , and bing competent later on could make us an even better winner. Now, I think we're having to earn our pots and bets more. Saving bets here and there, playing more deceptively, and running a few bluffs to throw off our opponents. In other words, playing real poker. No longer can we count on enough horrible players to allow us to go on autopilot while surfing the net. Its no longer about sitting around and waiting for the nuts.

I'd like for this to go further.

And to Bogglor, I don't play this game, so I can't do anything but say that i thought your estimate was high.

Beer.

Re: Example
 

I'm jugador716 and I don't have any notes on you because I don't hardly play that game anymore, I do think I was at your table for a little bit though.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

You make several good points, BeerMoney. I wrote a smallish post here about the Value of Deception in 8/b. No one responded, but I think there is good (if short) information in it and why it's necessary to change your game online.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

Beer:

There is no doubt that you and many of the other posters who've noticed the trend of improving play are correct. I've noticed it particularly in the last 6 months.

A popular axim is that limit play is about what you hold and no limit play is about your opponent holds. Now I think since that so many people play a very similar book-learned style, this axim is becoming less and less true by the day. I find myself thinking much more about what my opponents hold now and how to get that money in the middle than I ever did when I could just multitable 3 fish laden games. The era of the lazy poker player is surely coming to a close.

It definitely feels like there are fewer "good" games online by comparison anymore. As the popular craze winds down, there are far fewer players playing for fun/entertainment. Most of the literature tells you that online play is weaker and looser than live play, but I have never found this to be true at all. Someone who has an account on an online poker site had to go to a site, download a client, fund a netwallet, and make a deposit. This is much more effort and demonstrates a level of seriousness far above simply walking into a casino and playing poker for fun as many do.

All of that said, I still had my best statistical month ever in cash game play in October. The players are getting better, but so am I (god I hope so). The good player has to constantly strive to stay one step ahead of the game if he expects to continue to earn. That may involve adjusting his game to incorporate "imperfect" play, running more bluffs, saving bets -- whatever. Whatever the game you're in suggests you have to do -- do it. The ability to adjust is what will separate the wheat from the chaff going forward.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

I've witnessed the chat from a few players about him(including one who won't stop talking about what a cheat the guy is while playing with him the whole time..). One of these discussions was a lengthy discussion about the guy being a bot. For those that think he is a constant winner, I can also say he is frequently replenishing his stack so he can cover a full hand of capped betting. (As opposed to many who sit at the table with less than $200). I've seen him have losing sessions where he leaves with over a $1000 on the table.
I'll admit I'm somewhat fascinated by the guy. Will play two tables, will not play heads-up or short-handed, never chats.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

Yeah the whiner in question is Studeight888. He insists that Kinsman is a cheat. Of course, his evidence for this is that the day after he called Fobol out, Fobol changed his name. Wow, that pretty much seals it up doesn't it.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He apparently makes a couple grand a day in the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

actually, yes

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

[ QUOTE ]
He apparently makes a couple grand a day in the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a 10-20 stud/8 game we're talking about here? There is no way this is remotely possible.

Mike Emery

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming your numbers are correct, then the only explanation is that PP is fixed and he works for them. How difficult can it be to fix a site to the benefit of the site.

The other explanation is that he broke into their server and is able to see everyone cards. Is that possible to do? Maybe.

But other than that, no one can consistantly win $1,000 every day. Everyone is prisoner to the same probility. And if they are doing better than that consistantly, then there is cheating going on.


[/ QUOTE ]

I completely agree with this. There is absolutely NO way the top stud/8 player in the world could even sustain a winrate like you all are describing in this game. Hes either running insanely hot for the moment or there is cheating going on.

Mike Emery

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

I work in the computing field and I can tell you that without the cooperation of Partypoker, it would be nigh impossible to cheat via any traditional methods. First of all, a user would have to get into the intranet of the company which I am sure is absurdly protected. Then, they would have to have some knowledge of the PP server/client architecture and figure out where the seeds from the RNG are coming from. Then, they'd have to decode the encryption and figure out the order of the cards remaining in the deck. I doubt they could ever even see what the other players are holding. This is all extremely, extremely farfetched. Now, if he's a shill or something for the site, all of this goes out the window. But I don't believe that Party would jepoardize the entire integrity of their site just so they could earn a couple thousand back (or whatever) per day. The revelation of something like this would cost them millions. I don't believe it at all.

Now, with that said, after close observation of him for many months, I can tell you that he does do some rather unusual things that _may_ indicate that he has some kind of vague insight into the operation of the RNG. I can't believe I'm even buying into this, but it has made me say "hmmmmm" on a few occasions. For example, he sits out very frequently for two to three hands at a time, seemingly at random intervals. He often plays two tables and will alternate sitting out on them here and there. He very rarely sits both out at the same time. And he'll play hands very unusually from time to time, as if he knows what he's going to catch in advance of it happening. The hand history that mscags posted is an example of this. Kinsman is usually a tight, solid player as everyone has attested to so far. But he plays a hand like a split pair of 9s -- an absolutely terrible hand to be sure -- and calls down against an obvious low board like he knows he's getting half anyway? I loathe the fact that I'm even putting this out there since rationally I know he's a solid player with some seemingly insane luck. Perhaps he's done some kind of analysis of hundreds of thousands of hand histories and picked up some kind of pattern in the card distro in the stud game. Since the number of people playing any variant of stud on Party is consistently under 100 at any point, perhaps they did not test their shuffle as well as they did for flop games and Kinsman is exploiting that flaw somehow? I can't think of anything else that even remotely makes any sense that isn't a conspiracy theory. I'm not saying that he cheats, but if he did, this is the only logical explanation I can muster.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying that he cheats, but if he did, this is the only logical explanation I can muster.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, by simple collusion he could determine, in the split Nines example, that the low hand could not have a straight, so he calls down for a virtual lock on the high.

To do this he would only have to collude with some regulars or hack/trojan their systems. I think this is very possible but not very probable. But if it can be confirmed he has won an incredible amount then I think this is how.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

I don't understand why so many people are skeptical about the $1000/day win rate.

Some years back, when the Outpost in San Ramon, California, was still open, they spread a $10-$20 stud/8 game with a half-kill to $15-$30 on Tuesday nights. It was a rare night where I lost in that game, and my typical win was more than $1K. I'd say that my per-session win rate was in the neighborhood of $800 to $1000 per night.

That was a special game. I count myself as one of the top ten stud/8 players in the Bay Area (but please note how faint this self-praise really is). The joy of this game was that only one other top-ten player, Tahoe Andrew, played in it regularly.

The $10-$20 game on Party is very likely tougher than that happy hunting ground ... and at the same time, the player in question can boost his win rate (especially in proportion to variance) by playing at multiple tables, and that at each of those tables play is significantly faster than in a B&M game.

I think that averaging $1000 a day playing $10-$20 stud/8 online is completely plausible, assuming a reasonably soft game.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

360K+ in a year from a 10-20 stud8 game would be sick

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

[ QUOTE ]
360K+ in a year from a 10-20 stud8 game would be sick

[/ QUOTE ]

Are there really that many people losing money like that in this game?? If someone's gonna win that kind of $$.. There have to be people losing that.. I just don't see it.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

As someone previously on the record as somewhat "fascinated" by the FOBOL mystique.. I sat at "his" table last night for about four hours. He lost about $600 in the time that I sat with him. He left with about $1100 on the table, but I observed two $500 re-buys. I concede he is a typically winning player, but last night wasn't one of them. Of course, I would like to perpetuate the conspiracy theory by suggesting he has read this thread and purposely called my 2-3-4-5 board with a pair of buried 8's just to throw us off his trail.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

I think the interesting direction this conversation should take is the one of playing an alternate strategy that relies on hand reading, and out maneuvering players on later streets.. Rather than discussing whether or not this guy is a cheat, how much he wins, etc.. Although, I guess to have that discussion, we'd like to know if there are players out there with alternate strategies that are winning.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

even if the guy plays 10hr a day, you think he can average 100/hr each day, even if playing multiple table. i don't think so. no matter how good or bad you are in poker, the cards have a limiting factor both in how much can be won and lost on average.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

I've kind of new to this forum, just recently started playing Stud, but I'm more experienced with stud/8 which I believe is one of my better games (not spread much though online, certainly not during European office hours).

Anyway, I've followed this discussion about this player and I believe it's interesting in more persperctives. I think everyone wonders from time to time about "incredible" luck or strange patterns. Maybe it's just a part of a huge pattern, where very unlikely things appear. Most things happens likely and it wouldn't be likely without those unlikely occurencies. Normal things we don't notice, but a 50 million dollar lottery winner is noticed, still it's very unlikely to see it happen from a close range. I won't bore you more with this, because I'm sure you're all aware of it. Just suggesting he's the ongoing lottery-winner of stud/8... Any comments?

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

This guy is not the DERB of Stud 8/b. I smash his face regularly in that game, and am happy to sit with him. The end.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

[ QUOTE ]
This guy is not the DERB of Stud 8/b. I smash his face regularly in that game, and am happy to sit with him. The end.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cold Caller is probably right, and the way he's chasing (like we saw an example of) he will hardly be such a huge winner in the long run. By the way, if the accusations of cheating would be serious, why not contact Party Poker? If I was cheating I would chose a diffrent game than stud/8, probably some Hold'em game where there would be a lesser chance to get noticed. I also believe Bogger about the only chance would be if he had discovered that the cards were not dealt completely randomly. Still, would Party Poker really made such a mistake when creating the software?

Isn't there a program like Poker Tracker for Stud, or some other way of checking the statistics on this guy, cause we don't really know what his average really is?

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

I am no expert at stud 8/b, but there is no way in hell someone can win 6 big bets an hour. I can tell you exactly what is happening, he is getting lucky day in and day out. Statistically speaking, if you get 10,000 poker players, you're bound to find a few who get insanely lucky over the course of a year or two.

I'm not saying he's a bad player, he probably plays quite well to be able to put himself in a position to get this lucky. But if his win rate is 6BB an hour it's not purely because of skill.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

Maybe the games are just really incredible right now. When I have sat in the 10/20, there have been some real donators stopping by.

Also, perhaps he is a very strong heads up and short handed player. Those games ocilate between short and full the few time I have played. I definitely recall playing HU with someone decent (but whom I think I had an edge on HU as he made a few general HU mistakes) and every 5-15 minutes someone would stop by and drop a 10-20BB buy in on the table three way and leave. I really hope I can play in this game more and get some more data points.

FWIW, I think I have seen the mentioned guy and have about the same mental note on him as everyone else: Plays decently but occasionally flakes out and plays a hand he should not and goes to far with it.

I will watch him more in the future since everyone says he is on a huge upswing right now to figure out if there is some method to his madness. Honestly, I figured him for a small loser to decent winner depending on the table make up. He may in fact be a big winner who just makes these crazy weak loose plays for advertising. I have been meaning to write a big post on advertising in the psych section, but what it boils down to is that, from reading some very respected psych papers, I think it may be more effective than most people think. Specifically, there are two theories which lead me to believe this. The first is anchoring, after an oppinion is formed and contrary information comes in, the oppinin may shift, but almost always in too small of steps. The second is, IIRC, representativeness. If one can recall certain parts of a population better, they will tend to think the distribution of the population is skewed in the direction of the part they recall easier. For instance, you read off a list of 100 actors and actresses to someone, 50 of each. The actresses are somewhat more famous than the actors, so the person you are reading it to will know, and probably recall that they were on the list, better. If you ask the person for the proportion of actors and actresses, they will tend to estimate that there were more actresses on the list. In poker, it is easier to spot and remember bad play, so a couple of bad plays, especially early, and really affect oppinions.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

Good post fnord, and a topic I've been thinking alot about lately, though mainly in regards to perfecting the balance of advertising/metagame things, and also mainly in regards to the NL game of PF, but obviously applying to stud too as well as but notsomuch TD.

Would love reading the essay if it ever comes to be.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

I played $10-$20 stud/8 with Kinsman1josh this weekend on Party. He caught me eye because of this thread. I have played with him a few times in the past but can't remember much about him. He bought in for $500, won 2 hands and was up to $650, then lost a few hands and was down to around $500 again, then rebought for around $300-$320 as he suddenly was at $820 without winning a hand.

Not taking away from his play which I think is very solid, but his win rate might not be as big as you believe if you just go by occasionally checking his stack size. His play is good though, I don't think he likes to play shorthanded, each time a few people sat out he would sit out and wait till there were 6-7 players again.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

[ QUOTE ]
I played $10-$20 stud/8 with Kinsman1josh this weekend on Party. He caught me eye because of this thread. I have played with him a few times in the past but can't remember much about him. He bought in for $500, won 2 hands and was up to $650, then lost a few hands and was down to around $500 again, then rebought for around $300-$320 as he suddenly was at $820 without winning a hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, that's like the guy from the Feeney essay in ITPM.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe the games are just really incredible right now. When I have sat in the 10/20, there have been some real donators stopping by.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is definitely true. Stop outing the best game on Party! :P

[ QUOTE ]
Also, perhaps he is a very strong heads up and short handed player. Those games ocilate between short and full the few time I have played. I definitely recall playing HU with someone decent (but whom I think I had an edge on HU as he made a few general HU mistakes) and every 5-15 minutes someone would stop by and drop a 10-20BB buy in on the table three way and leave. I really hope I can play in this game more and get some more data points.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kinsman is a very skilled HUSH player in Stud 8/b. However, he is godawful in 6-8 handed play, as he chases a ton of hands and has very poor starting requirements.

I'll let a secret out of the bag about Kinsman: He loves to get freerolled for low.

Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8
 

Is this guy still crushing?