Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

iPod sales ending this Q [12/31]
o24mm -130
u24mm -110

Apple iPod shipments were up 17% YoY last Q. Forecasts are as high as 29mm units. Avg forecast is 25mm units.

But, Apple was *unusally aggressive* in their revenue forecast which backs into the 24mm number, and if you know anything about *official* next Q forecasts, once they give them - they beat them about 95%+ of the time.

To get >24mm, they just need growth during Holiday season to be 19%, up from 17% during a seasonally slow Q.

Again, seems fairly straightforward. I make this line a value up to -180 and maybe higher. It's not that the analyst estimate is 25mm, it's that Apple went on record as saying they forecast 24mm [LDO]. They'll sell 24,000,002 if Jobs/IR Dept has to buy 100,002 himself.

And increasing the growth rate during the holiday 3 mos really seems like a slam-dunk. People who can't get a Wii or etc will get iPods for kids.

Oh - also they released the new iPod in Sept, right before Q started, so big pent-up demand there.'Jobs added new versions in September, including a video player called the iPod Touch that uses the same touch- screen technology as the iPhone.' This is basically the ipod phone-look version that does everything but make calls. I expect it will do well.

Profit this quarter will rise to about $1.42 a share on sales of $9.2 billion, Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer said in the statement.

Analysts had anticipated $1.39 in profit and sales of $8.57 billion, the average estimates in the Bloomberg survey. Apple usually gives a forecast that's below analysts' predictions.

``We're looking forward to our best December quarter ever,'' Oppenheimer said on a conference call. ``Apple is shipping the best products that we have ever made in our history. We're quite confident in the business, and we exited the September quarter with a lot of momentum.''

I can only put $65 on this, but I would put 6500 if I could.

tl/dr;
Oppenheimer - I HAZ LOCKZ!

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

on it thanks

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

Nice find, thanks Naj.

-P

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nice find, thanks Naj.

-P

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Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

Thanks, Naj.

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

Just to be clear, this is obvs not a 'Lock.'

I am of course kidding with that terminology, but not kidding I would put >$5k on it if I could. At least a 2-1 favorite but given the CFO's bullishness, could be *way* higher LDO.

[FTR, I dislike Apple and own none of their products, but certainly admire their marketing prowess. I just don't look at their devices thru rose-colored glasses like many 2p2ers.]

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

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and if you know anything about *official* next Q forecasts, once they give them - they beat them about 95%+ of the time.

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[ QUOTE ]
. I make this line a value up to -180 and maybe higher.

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If you expect them to beat it 95% of the time (even if that was a mild exaggeration), wouldn't you find value up to maybe -1000 or more?

Edit: Just read your post before this one.

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

Yes, but others have differing definitions of 'value' than I do, LDO.

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

Okay, good point. I guess it depends on how much of an edge you like to have. Especially with a $65 max bet.

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

good find, thanks naj

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

im down for it.

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

Any chance the iphone cannibalizes the ipod's sales? Or will this be completely insignificant?

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

i think this one is free money too

Bet On: Will Ron Paul raise a total of $12 million or more in contributions by December 31, 2007?

yes -160

he already has about 9.4 million raised in this quarter with a huge money blitz planned for dec 16th (ron paul tea party)

his last money blitz raised about 4.5 million, he would need half of that to make 12 million

also if you take out that one day blitz, he's been averaging 84k/day in donations, with 34 days left in the year thats 2.85 mil more which will put him over barely even without the ron paul tea party

i also like the no -120 on

Political Props Bet On: Will the Ron Paul Tea Party 2007 meet its goal of raising $10 million or more in donations? - Moneyline

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

one more ron paul
Political Props Bet On: Will the Ron Paul Tea Party 2007 receive more than 100,000 pledges by the end of December 16, 2007? -

i took the no at even

highest # of donors he had before in one day was 38,887

he's only been averaging 5k/week minus that one week

i think the under 10 million and 100k pledges are correlated, so since i hit the no on u10 mil gonna hit the no here too

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

Any value in trying to middle the over 4.3 mil and under 10 mil for the Ron Paul tea party?

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

lol, iPod bet down already. Think they're moving the line, or just taking it down altogether? Usually Bodog just shifts the odds when max bets pour in, unless they think some kind of info. has been leaked that would make this bet stay OTB. Not sure how that could be considering there's a lot left of the quarter.

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

[ QUOTE ]
Any value in trying to middle the over 4.3 mil and under 10 mil for the Ron Paul tea party?

[/ QUOTE ]

i ended up doing this with -200 on o4.3, but not so sure at -300 if its a good idea

been looking at http://ronpaulgraphs.com/teaparty_vs_nov5_members.html

seems like all the people who registered for the tea party all did it at once and its a small growth since the initial surge

based on this graph i'm really liking the u 100k pledges a lot now

looks like he's going to get around the same number of pledges based on that graph, hopefully he'll keep about the same donation/person ratio as last time ($150/person)

the o12 mil is now -400, was -160 less than an hour ago ha

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

Nice find, btw. Thanks.

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

[ QUOTE ]


looks like he's going to get around the same number of pledges based on that graph, hopefully he'll keep about the same donation/person ratio as last time ($150/person)


[/ QUOTE ]

At the current level of subscribers (~22k), at $150/person, he would currently be at ~$3.3 mil. So, he needs about $1 mil more (or roughly 7,000 more people) to go over $4.3 mil. The odds are currently at -400, so this needs to happen >80% of the time. Not sure I like it a ton, but if 7k more subscribers is at all difficult to come by, under 100k has to be a near-lock (I hate saying that, especially knowing very little about this).

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

wow, the o4.x million is now at -900

i'm wondering how much this forum influences the lines, i know there's small limits, but they're quick to move the lines on these things. cause if 2p2 influence is small it looks like we're on the right side of every bet

the lines plummeted in 2 hours or so

are that many people really chekcing bodog political props on wed morning?

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

it is definitely this forum

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

[ QUOTE ]
it is definitely this forum

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Yep. I don't think it takes much to move certain Bodog lines, and they seem willing to make large changes with relatively small volume if it's pouring in all on the same side in a short period of time.

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

Yeah, setting aside whether I am any good at handicapping NFL player props, I've noticed that the Bodog line often moves 20 or 30 cents higher after my picks are posted.

It's flattering, but I hope people aren't hoping to make tons of money by tailing me because I certainly haven't. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

anyone have any opinions on this prop?


Bet On: Will News Corp. buy the professional social networking site LinkedIn by January 31, 2008?

News Corp. must purchase controlling share of LinkedIn for Yes to be graded the winner. Any wagers placed after outcome is public knowledge will be No Action. Max. $50.
Yes +150
No -200

It seems like the owner of LinkedIn wants more than his company is worth, but I think Murdoch is willing to overspend, especially since he got myspace for cheap and he just bought the dow jones, but profits are still dropping.

All the websites are saying they're in heavy talks for the past 2 days (went from rumors to confirmed an hour ago)

Murdoch now owns Wall St Journal and could integrate nicely with LinkedIn

I really think NewsCorp will end up buying it, unless the owner wants way too much (>5 billion)

The one negative is the owner said:

We’re excited about building this company,” said Nye. “It would take a helluva lot to get us off that path.” Does that mean $1 billion? “A lot more than that,” said Nye

but I think that was more to inflate the price.

Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz
 

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it is definitely my capping prowess

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