4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (7 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button (t49256)
SB (t6315)
BB (t8913)
UTG (t6225)
MP1 (t20353)
MP2 (t31206)
Hero (t26125)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t2000</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls t1200.

Flop: (t3650) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t6838 (All-In)</font>, Hero ???

I had been tight so far, but not too tight. Mostly taking down pots preflop, raise/folding one time preflop and taking a flip on the bubble with AK &gt; QQ.
Villains has been playing very tight so far, something around 5/2 or so, but I did not see him cold calling raies yet.

So do I have to call here or not? And as a side question: Would we call without our gutshot?

/edit: Forgot to mention, that we are itm.

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

Fold. Not enough odds and dont call off 1/4 of your stack.

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

I'm folding..we're not ahead of much and getting no price to call

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

Snap fold imo.

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

This shortstacked BB is doing this with a wide array of hands.
You need to call 6.8 to win a ~18k pot, so you need roughly 0.37% equity for this call to be breakeven.

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

against 5/2 villain easy fold imo

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

[ QUOTE ]
Snap fold imo.

[/ QUOTE ]
A villain playing 5/2 probably isn't going to pull a stop and go, and he probably isn't calling off 1/4 of his stack with a weak hand. Snap fold imo indeed

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

Let's see, if A,Q,K are outs that's ~43% to win if we're behind. Without the gutshot it's ~25%. So it looks like a reasonable call with the gutshot but not without. Why is everyone folding this??

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

p.s. esp since it will be KQ or 89s sometimes

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

[ QUOTE ]
Let's see, if A,Q,K are outs that's ~43% to win if we're behind. Without the gutshot it's ~25%. So it looks like a reasonable call with the gutshot but not without. Why is everyone folding this??

[/ QUOTE ]

We need about 40% equity to call, and really the only hands in his range we have 40% equity against are K-Q, A-Q and air. If he has A-J or possibly even A-10 we have ~30%, if he has an overpair we have anywhere from ~30% to ~12%, if he has J-T we have just a gutshot, if he has a set we have the gutshot, and if he has A-K we're... dead to the gutshot the same as with a set or two pair. Against a very tight player you should probably be giving him credit here, even if you think his push looks like a draw.

On that subject, a pot-sized bet clearly commits both players to the hand, and betting the pot presumably with the intent of making the same bet all-in on the turn looks pretty strong, so I could see a lot of players value-shoving here, hoping you'll put them on a draw.

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

To the calculator... if you assume his range is any pair and any broadway, it's a fold (see below). Which brings up a PokerStove question: does it adjust the probability for opponents holdings based on your holdings? (e.g. less probability for QQ or AA here since we hold AQ)

Board: Jd Th 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.299% 31.18% 03.12% 50933 5094.00 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 65.701% 62.58% 03.12% 102229 5094.00 { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

Yes it does adjust and I am folding this

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

1) That range is wide to the point of irrelevance.

2) Yes.

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

What holdings do you object to? At the $4 level I think I have to stand by this range, perhaps chuck 22 and 33... (villian's qualitative range being, any piece of the flop at all, any draw, or anything that looks like it might win because the other guy cannot possibly have a J or T)

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

ItM? Folding this